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Tracking the Trucking Industry… 2004 and Beyond

Tracking the Trucking Industry… 2004 and Beyond. Presented by Dan Murray American Transportation Research Institute. The Economy Matters…. Manufacturing Production. Purchasing Managers Index. False Start. Growth Threshold. December’s reading was the highest level in 20 years.

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Tracking the Trucking Industry… 2004 and Beyond

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  1. Tracking the Trucking Industry…2004 and Beyond Presented by Dan Murray American Transportation Research Institute

  2. The Economy Matters…

  3. Manufacturing Production Purchasing Managers Index False Start Growth Threshold December’s reading was the highest level in 20 years. Source: Institute for Supply Management

  4. Manufacturing Productivity(1992=100) The surge in productivity has been good for businesses and consumers, but a mixed bag for manufacturing workers: Incomes Employment Trend line 1970s 2.7% 1980s 2.6% 1990s 3.2% 2000s 4.1% Sources: Department of Labor & ATA

  5. Retail SalesYear-Over-Year Growth Consumer spending is more than 2/3 of the economy! Sales excluding Autos Total Sales Source: Department of Commerce

  6. Consumer Confidence The problem with consumer confidence is that it can be impacted by more than just economic events. Iraq War September 11th Corp. Scandals Iraq War Source: The Conference Board

  7. Today’s Trucking Economics…

  8. ATA’s Monthly Truck Tonnage Index1993=100 Source: American Trucking Associations

  9. Trucking’s Progress Since 1985 ATA’s Monthly Truck Tonnage Index (1993 = 100) 6% Average Annual Growth Rate Source: American Trucking Associations

  10. Truckload Loads(1993=100) Large Carriers (More than $30 Million in annual revenues) Small Carriers (Less than $30 Million in annual revenues) Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

  11. Truckload Loads(1996=100; average length of haul basis) Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

  12. LTL Volumes(1993=100) Small Carriers (Less than $300 Million in annual revenues) Recession hit LTL freight hard Large Carriers (More than $300 Million in annual revenues) Strike Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

  13. Higher Diesel Prices Lead To More Trucking Failures Sources: A.G. Edwards & ATA

  14. Insurance Cost per Truck Data based on publicly held truckload carriers which disclose this information.

  15. Truckload Driver Turnover(Quarterly Annualized Rates )

  16. Trucking in the Future

  17. Industry Snapshot:Freight Movement • Total Tonnage Moved: 2002 - 8.88 Billion Tons 2008 - 10.1 Billion Tons … A 13.7% increase in 6 years. • Trucks carry 67.9% of total domestic tonnage in the U.S. U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast…To 2014

  18. Industry Snapshot:Revenue • Total Revenue: 2002 - $585.3 Billion 2008 - $745.0 Billion … A 27.2% increase in 6 years. • Trucking revenue represents 86.5% of all freight revenue

  19. Industry Snapshot:Firms, Employment & Equipment • 610,000 Interstate for-Hire Carriers • Total Employment: - 10.1 million employees - 3.2 million truck drivers (CDL) • 2.6 Million Class 8 Trucks; 4.9 Million Trailers

  20. Non-Trucking Freight Growth • Rail Trends… • 1.75 Billion Tons Moved in 2002 • Estimated Annual Rail Car Tonnage Growth 2003 – 2008: 2.2% • Rail Carload Revenue 2002 - $34.7 Billion • Truck Issue: intermodal growth way up (8.8% in Q4, ’03)

  21. Non-Trucking Freight Growth • Air Cargo Trends… • 17.4 Million tons moved in 2002 • Estimated Annual Tonnage Growth 2003 - 2008: 4.7% • Air Cargo Revenue 2002 - $14.1 Billion • Truck Issue: Air cargo “interline” service growing fast!

  22. Strategic Issues • Taxes and User Fees • 2003 Annual Taxes Paid on 5-Axle Semi: State- $4,567 Federal - $6,139 TOTAL - $10,706 • New User Fees – SAFETEA & FAST Lanes

  23. Strategic Issues • Insurance Costs • 20% - 50% increases for “good” carriers • New “Hours of Service” Regulations? • Fuel Cost Volatility • Jan. ’02 - $1.16/Gallon • June ‘04 - $2.00/Gallon

  24. Strategic Issues • Driver Issues • HOS • Heated Economy & Wage Increases • Looming Retirements • Turn-over vs. Churning • Technology Utilization • Growing; Faster Among Large Carriers

  25. Strategic Issues • Congestion • Problematic but solutions may be worse • Tolls • Truck Bans • Security Costs?? • US Patriot Act • Truck Tracking • Port Systems • Shipper-Carrier Relationships

  26. Conclusion…. • “Good Time To Be A Survivor” Questions? Dmurray@trucking.org

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