The Future of Work Where are the Jobs? 2004-2014

1. The Future of WorkWhere are the Jobs? 2004-2014 Career Services Central Piedmont Community College October 2007

2. 2002-2012 Medical Assistants 59% Network Systems/Data Communications Analysts 57% Physician Assistants 49% Social and Human Service Assistants 49% Home Health Aides 48% Medical Records/Health Information 47% Technicians Physical Therapist Aides 46% Computer Software Eng., Applications 46% Computer Software Eng., Systems Software 45% Physical Therapist Assistants 45% 2004-2014 Home Health Aides 56% Network Systems & Data Comm. Analysts 54.6% Medical Assistants 52.1% Physicians Assistants 49.6% Computer Soft. Engineers 48.4% Physical Therapist Assistants 44.2% Dental Hygienists 43.3% Computer Soft Eng, System Software 43% Dental Assistants 42.7% Personal and Home Care Aides 41% Hot JobsFastest Growing (Percents)

3. 2002-2012 Registered Nurses Postsecondary Teachers Retail Salespersons Customer Services Reps. Food Prep/Servers Cashiers Janitors/Cleaners General/Operations Mgrs. Waiters/Waitresses Nursing Aides/Orderlies 2004-2014 Retail Salespersons Registered Nurses Postsecondary Teachers Customer Service Reps Janitors/Cleaners Waiters/Waitresses Food Prep/Servers Home Health Aides Nursing Aides/Orderlies General/Operations Mgrs. Largest Job Growth(Numbers) Food Service and Health Care have accounted for about 1/2 of all non-farm employment growth in 2007. …BLS, October 5, 2007

4. Fastest Growing Industries Wages and Salaries • Home Health Care Services • Software Publishers • Consulting Services* • Residential Care Facilities • Facilities Support Services • Employment Services • Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers • Office Administrative Services • Computer Systems Design • Outpatient, Laboratory and other Ambulatory Health Care Services * Management, Scientific and Technical

5. Where they will work: Home Health Care 69.5% Outpatient Care Centers 44.2% Offices/other practitioners 42.7% Dentists 31.7% Ambulatory care services 37.7% Physicians Offices 37% Nursing Homes 27.8% Labs 27.1% Hospitals 13.1% Careers Home Health Aides 56% Medical Assistants 52% Physician Assistants 50% Physical Therapist Assistants 44% Health Care

6. Health Care Jobs • 3.6 million new jobs – 19% increase of all jobs • High turnover and retirements • Tougher immigration rules limit foreign workers • Increased health care needs of older population • Life expectancies rise • Aging children unable to care for parents • Improved survival rates of severely ill/physical therapy • New technologies will identify and treat conditions • Medical groups will become larger/more complex • Shift from inpatient to outpatient/ home health care • Need to work in settings other than hospitals • Use more assistants to contain costs • Replacement needs will offset technological changes to keep demand high

7. Occupations with the Most New Jobs:  Associate's Degrees or Postsecondary Vocational • Registered nurses +703 • Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants +325 • Preschool teachers, except special education +143 • Automotive service technicians and mechanics +126 • Licensed practical / licensed vocational nurses +124 • Computer support specialists +119 • Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists +98 • Dental hygienists +68 • Paralegals and legal assistants +67 • Medical secretaries +63 ---increase 2004-2014 (numbers are in thousands of jobs)

8. Recent Job Losses ----Philip L. Rones, Acting Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 5, 2007 Employment Services 223,000 since Sept2006 Mortgage Lending /Related 46,000 since Feb. 2007 Residential Construction 112,000 in one year Manufacturing 223,000 since Sept 2006

9. Impacts on Jobs • Outsourcing: abroad or to other firms • Global Competition: educated populations • Baby Boomer Retirements • Occupational Labor Shortages • Immigration- high and low skilled jobs • Discoveries of new technologies /production • Automation • Business Practices

10. Survivors • Accountant  financial life planner • Secretary more complex tasks, planning, accounting, etc • Computer Programmer  needs industry specific people skills • Bank Teller  answers higher level requests • Factory Worker  expert on computer- controlled machines "I think there's going to be an enormous shift of occupations. Most jobs are going to change. They'll survive, but they'll change."… futurist Alvin Toffler, author of Future Shock and Revolutionary Wealth

11. Why Jobs Move Offshore/Change • Work is highly repetitive (accounting) • Work is predictable and well defined (customer service) • Can be broken down into small manageable projects (software development) • Can be turned into a routine (Tele-marketing) • Proximity to the end customer is not important (phone based tech support of consumer products) • End customer has already moved offshore(semiconductor sales)

12. “Safe” Careers

13. Jobs That Stay… • High degree of ambiguity (top management positions) • Unpredictable (hands on technical troubleshooting) • Understanding of the culture is critical (authoring books, marketing, comedians) • Time is of the essence (fast product development) • Requires a high degree of collaboration (making a movie) • Requires close proximity to the end customer (firefighting, auto repair, dental work) • Requires high degree of creativity and innovation (creating new products, technical breakthroughs, writing music) • Requires complex communication skills • Needs to understand and implement the “big picture” • Involves complex pattern recognition (counselor, lawyer)

14. Disappear Grocery Store Clerk Film Processor CD Store Manager Union Organizer Encyclopedia Writer Miner Construction Worker Fighter Pilots Call Center Reps Oil Wildcatter New Hydrogen Fuel Station Mrg. Hollywood Holographer Drowned City Specialist Quarantine Enforcer Space Tour Guide Animal Guardian Robot Mechanic Gene Screener Dirigible Pilot Remain Politician Mortician Tax Collector Religious Leader Barber Artist Soldier

15. Going Green • Hydrologists – flood control environmental preservation • Environmental Engineers • Environmental Health Scientists • Urban/Regional Planners • Environmental Consulting • “The green-energy business already accounts for at least 14,400 jobs and is growing three times as fast as other major industries” – Massachusetts Technology Collaborative

16. The Grayingof the Workforce • Baby Boomers in 2014 will be 50-68 • 2005-50 massive exit from workforce • Loss of knowleable workforce • Will live between 85-95 • Work longer? Need computer skills • Retirement ages change:70, 72, 75? • By 2040 a big inheritance might go to the next generation?

18. Education Pays

19. Action Strategies Talk to a professional in the field you are considering Research career before entering Great Work Ethic & Positive Attitude Choose a high demand career that even the labor markets of China & India will not fill all the jobs Be alert in highly repetitive jobs that do not require close proximity to the customer Stay current with learning~ computer and communication skills

20. Resources • Bureau of Labor Statistics December 2005, 2004-2024 Outlook, Next possible update – November 2007 www.bls.gov • Occupational Outlook Quarterly Reports www.bls.gov • Jobs Of The Future,Hannah Clark, 05.23.06, Forbes Magazine • Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Career Guide to Industries, 2006-07 Edition, Health Care, on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/cgs035.htm (visited October 14, 2007). • Statement by Philip L. Rones, Acting Commissioner Bureau of Labor Statistics, October 5, 2007 • "A new look at long-term labor force projections to 2050," Monthly Labor Review, November 2006, pp. 19-39, by Mitra Toossi