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Where Are The Asbestos Claims Going?

Explore the history and forecasts of asbestos claims through medical models from 1993 to 2001, with insights on upcoming trusts. Learn about potential claim flow, backlog estimates, and assumptions for the future.

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Where Are The Asbestos Claims Going?

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  1. Where Are The Asbestos Claims Going? David Austern President, Claims Resolution Management Corporation and General Counsel, Manville Personal Injury Settlement Trust

  2. Asbestos Exposure

  3. ARPC 2001

  4. ARPC 2001

  5. FUTURE CLAIMS FORECASTING BASED ON MEDICAL MODELS MAY BE MISLEADING History of the Manville Personal Injury Settlement Trust Future Claims Forecasting Employing Medical Models Year of Forecast Forecast 2002-2049 % Change 1993 1995 1997 2000 2001 149,000 266,000 333,000 441,000 1,353,000 N/A 79% 25% 32% 207%

  6. Within 1-3 years: Example of 12 new trusts – Assets > $20B (000) $ $ Note: Figures are likely amounts, based on announced settlements and/or plans. Revisions are certain; likely more will increase than will decrease.

  7. Future trusts: Example of likely backlogs of claims: Note: backlog estimates based on claims pending at bankruptcy filing date or where available, bar date figures.

  8. Potential total claim flow from example of 15 new trusts Assumptions: • Three trusts come on line the first year; four per year thereafter • Backlog burn rate of up to 120k/year per trust • Run rate after backlog burn at 1/7 of backlog

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