The Engineer of 2020

1. The Engineer of 2020 Visions of the Future of Engineering

2. National Academy of Engineering • Fall 2002 workshop • Envision the engineer of 2020 http://www.nae.edu/nae/naehome.nsf

3. Our 21st Century World • Changes over last century • Engineering, through technology, has “forged an irreversible imprint on our lives and our identity” • The developed world • Longer, healthier lives • Improved work and living conditions • Global communication • Ease of transit • Access to art and culture • Moral and ethical challenge for the future • Make the same true for the developing world

4. Population & Demographics • Global challenges • The world will become more crowded • 8 billion by 2020 • There will be more centers of dense population • Mostly in countries in the developing world • Many will live in regions with fewer technological resources

5. Population & Demographics • Aging society in the developed world • By 2050, ratio of taxpaying workers to nonworking pensioners in US will fall from 4:1 to 2:1 • Impacts: • Economic stress • Increasing demands on health care system • Heightened labor force tensions • Increasing political instability

6. Population & Demographics • 2000 US Census • By 2050, almost half the US population will be non-white • Challenges: • Engineering profession must develop acceptable solutions to an increasingly diverse population • Engineering schools must attract students from under-represented sectors

7. Population & Demographics • The “Youth Bulge” & Security Implications • Nations in many politically unstable parts of the world • Disproportionate number of 15- to 29-year olds • Results • Continued social and political unrest and threats from terrorism and religious fundamentalism • Increased need for military services and security measures at home and abroad • Migration from youth bulge countries to rapidly aging countries may mitigate the problem • US concerns regarding increased terrorism will probably limit this migration • Increased need for engineering schools to attract domestic students

8. The Global Environment • Natural resource & environmental concerns • Increasing demand for energy • Declining petroleum production and reserves • Global deforestation • Increasing demands for potable water • Falling water tables in China, India, & US, which produce half the world’s food supply • Global warming • Depletion of the ozone layer • Challenges: • Ecologically sustainable practices • Technological solutions coupled with conservation

9. Breakthrough Technologies • Biotechnology • Nanotechnology • Materials Science & Photonics • Information & Communications Technology • The Information Explosion • Logistics

10. Biotechnology • Tissue engineering & regenerative medicine • Replacement skin for burn patients • Spinal cord repair • Repair/replacement meniscal and articular cartilage • Repair/replace bladder http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/04/03/engineered.organs/index.html http://www.jhu.edu/news_info/news/home02/aug02/stemcell.html

11. Biotechnology • Nanotechnology & MEMS • Bioinformatics • Defense against biological and chemical weapons • Civil engineers  understand transport characteristics of agents and diffusivity in air and water supplies • Mechanical engineers  devise pumps and filters able to deal with airborne and waterborne agents • Electrical engineers  design sensing and detection instruments http://www.tastechip.com/cardiac/cardiac_diagnostics_research.html

12. Biotechnology • Safety & reliability considerations • Engineers must acquire basic knowledge about biological systems • Engineers must pay attention to fault-tolerant designs

13. Nanotechnology • Multidisciplinary • Bioengineering • Materials science • Electronics http://www.physorg.com/news83421615.html http://www.nanoengineer-1.com/mambo/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=60&Itemid=57&PHPSESSID=855def63bf78fef91ffed786f044ba5d http://cohesion.rice.edu/centersandinst/cben/research.cfm?doc_id=5091

14. Nanotechnology • Possible future technologies • Environmental cleaning agents • Chemical detection agents • Creation of biological organs • Development of NEMS • Development of ultrafast, ultradense electrical and optical circuits http://www.media.rice.edu/media/Current_Issue.asp?SnID=1140090185

15. Materials Science & Photonics • Traditional engineering disciplines will increasingly incorporate new materials • Composites • Atomic-scale machines • Molecular-based nanostructures • Smart materials & structures • New fuel cell technologies • Optical sources • Decreasing physical size • Increasing power and reliability http://designinsite.dk/htmsider/md950.htm http://designinsite.dk/htmsider/m1306.htm

16. Information & Communications Technology • To appreciate the potential, consider those technologies that your parents lived without • Personal computers • Cellular phones • Photocopiers • Fax machines • Video conferencing • Internet

17. Information & Communications Technology • Foreseeable future • Pocket-sized 10 gig hard drives and computers • Desktop machines and software powerful enough to make routine activities of contemporary engineers obsolete • Worldwide broadband networks • Huge volumes of data • Realtime collaboration anywhere in the world • Perceptions of connectedness, location, & access will continue to change

18. Information & Communications Technology • Imperative for engineers • Accommodate connectivity • Develop a role for core competencies in • Fundamentals of digital systems, electronics, electromagnetics, photonics, discrete & continuous mathematics, materials • Cultivate skills related to use of IT for communications purposes • Remain state of the art in IT and updated common engineering practices • Make common use of computer-based design-build engineering

19. The Information Explosion • Exponential growth in data and knowledge • Previously, possible for a person to be conversant about much of science, mathematics, medicine, music, and the arts • Today, an individual’s area of expertise continues to diminish in relation to total body of knowledge • Example of future  Health care today • Specialists

20. The Information Explosion • Engineering’s response to explosion of knowledge • Past  Develop new areas of focus with increased depth of individual knowledge and decreased breadth of knowledge • Future  The ability to function on interdisciplinary level is critical for solving complex problems • Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) mission

21. Logistics • Revolution in movement of goods & services and improved productivity • Wireless communication • Handheld computers • Inventory tracking and database software • “Just-in-time” manufacturing • Far-flung networks of suppliers and manufacturing units linked together • Future  Challenge of moving goods and services more efficiently will continue

22. Technological Challenges • Physical Infrastructures in Urban Settings • Information & Communications Infrastructure • The Environment • Technology for an Aging Population

23. Physical Infrastructures in Urban Settings • Past & present approaches to urban development • Attention to human services & private-sector requirements • Insufficient attention to environmental impact & sustainability • Result  Large cities are the victims of • Pollution • Traffic & transportation infrastructure concerns • Decreasing greenery • Poor biodiversity • Disparate educational services

24. Physical Infrastructures in Urban Settings • Arguably, the US has the best physical infrastructure in the developed world • BUT these infrastructures are in serious decline • Water treatment • Waste disposal • Transportation • Energy facilities • Engineering is ideally positioned to address these issues • Requires the will of public leaders & the general public • Security enhancements  global terrorism

25. Information & Communications Infrastructure • More recent vintage  has not suffered the ravages of time • Vulnerabilities include accidental or intentional events • Malicious attacks • System overloads • Natural disasters • Profound effect on our national economy, our national and personal security, and our lifestyles

26. Information & Communications Infrastructure • Future  public & private sectors must develop strategies & take actions to • Continually update the infrastructure to keep pace with technology • Increase capacity to respond to the rapid growth in information and communications technology-related services • Develop and design systems with a global perspective • Work to increase security and reliability • Consider issues of privacy • Actions will involve legal, regulatory, economic, business, & social considerations

27. The Environment • Natural resource and environmental concerns • Increasing demand for energy • Fossil fuel supply • Increasing demand for potable water • Global deforestation • Global warming • Depletion of ozone layer

28. Energy • California  projections for 2020 compared to 2000 usage (California Business, Transportation, and Housing Agency, 2001) • 40% more electrical capacity • 40% more gasoline • 20% more natural gas energy

29. Fossil Fuel http://www.oilposter.org/

30. Water • Within the next 20 years, virtually every nation will face some type of water supply problem (UN World Water Development Report, 2003) • China, India, and the United States • Produce half the world’s food • Are experiencing falling water tables • Presently • More than 1 billion people have little access to clean drinking water • 2 billion live in conditions of water scarcity • Future  water supplies will affect the world’s economy and its stability

31. Global Deforestation • Global per capita forest area (Forest & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 1995) • Projected to fall to 1/3 of its 1990 value by 2020 • Due to population growth in tropical areas and shrinking forest area

32. Sustainability • Ecologically sustainable practices must be developed and implemented to preserve our environment • In both industrialized and developing nations • Conservation must be combined with technological innovation • Engineers need to be educated to consider issues of sustainable development • “Green engineering” • Embed social and cultural objectives into traditional engineering focus on technical & economic viability

33. Technology for an Aging Population • New technologies can help an aging population maintain healthy, productive lifestyles well beyond conventional retirement age • Engineering can address the challenges of aging • Assistive technology • Accommodate people of all ages who are challenged by physical or other limitations

34. Technology for an Aging Population • Several areas for improved services for aging patients (Center for Aging Services Technologies, 2003) • Monitors, sensors, robots, and smart housing • Allow elderly to maintain independent lifestyles • Alleviate the burdens on care providers & government programs • Operational technologies that help service providers reduce labor costs or prevent medical errors • Connective technologies that help elderly communicate • Telemedicine • Provide basic or specialized services to patients in remote locations or to amplify access to medical services

35. Conclusion • “The comfortable notion that a person learns all that he or she needs to know in a four-year engineering program just is not true and never was.” (NAE, 2004)