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Air Quality and Health Benefits of China's Emission Control Policies on Coal-Fired Power Plants, 2005-2020

This study examines the air quality and health impacts of emissions from coal-fired power plants in China and evaluates the benefits of historical and current control measures. Findings reveal significant reductions in air pollutant emissions and avoided premature deaths due to these policies.

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Air Quality and Health Benefits of China's Emission Control Policies on Coal-Fired Power Plants, 2005-2020

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  1. Air quality and health benefits of China’s emission control policies on coal-fired powerplants, 2005-2020 RuiliWu Oct21,2019

  2. Contents • 1.Introduction • 2.Method • 3.Results • 4.Discussionandpolicyimplications

  3. 1.1Coal-firedpower plants,oneoflargestcontributorstoairpollutants emissionsinChina • SO2(33%),NOx(33%),PM2.5(6%),2010 • NO3-(26%),SO42-(22%),2012 Coal-firedpowerplants have beenvital target for emission control in recent decades andplay an important role in air quality management inChina.   [Huang et al.,RCR,2017] [Zhao et al., ACP,2013]

  4. 1.2AseriesofcontrolmeasuresatpowerplantsweretakentoimproveenergyefficiencyandairqualityinChinaoverthelasttwodecades1.2AseriesofcontrolmeasuresatpowerplantsweretakentoimproveenergyefficiencyandairqualityinChinaoverthelasttwodecades • Nationalenvironmentalpolicies “ActionPlan” Reducing PM2.5 concentrations in BTH, YRD and PRD regions by25%, 15% and 10% “11thFive-Year-Plan” Reducing10%ofnational SO2emissions “13thFive-YearPlan/ Reducing10%ofnationalNH3,SO2,NOx,10%ofVOCs “12thFive-Year-Plan” Reducing10%ofSO2 and8%ofNOxemissions 2005-20102010-20152013-20172015-2020 Itisessentialtounderstand of the air quality and health impacts associated withemissioncontrolmeasuresonpowerplants. • Controlmeasuresandachievementwithpowerplants Improvementofenergyefficiency Phase-outsmallunits Constructlargeunits Ultra-lowemissionstandards（2014-2020） Fully implication action plan(2014-2020) Upgradingofend-of-pipefacilities InstallFGDsince2005;de-NOxsince2011;twosequentialemissionstandards Largeunits(>600MW):10%->40% Smallunits(<100MW):25%->10% Coalconsumptionrate 356gce/kwh->315gce/kwh FGDequippedratio:96.9% De-NOxdevices:85.6% PM, SO2 and NOxconcentrationsfrom CPPs plumes are required to decline to less than 10, 35 and 50 mg/m3 by 2020

  5. 1.3Reviewofpreviousstudies Airqualityimpactsofpowerplants Ultra-lowemissionstandards->EFchange (Liuetal.2019.EST) (Guetal.,2018,ERL） Healthimpactsofpowerplants However, a comprehensive evaluation of air quality and health impacts of emissions from power plants in China, which accounts for the influence of the historical and latest control measures during last two decades, is missing. Ultra-lowemissionstandards->Airqualityimpacts (Hu et al., 2017,EST) (Wang et al.,2018) PM2.5benefitsrelatedwithpowerplants (Ni et al., 2018) (Tanetal.2017)

  6. Researchframework Questions During2005-2020,(1)Theair quality and health impacts of emissions from power plants in China (2)Theairqualityandhealthbenefitsofthe historical and latest control policiesonpowerplants Healthimpacts Reduced emissions analysis Airqualityimpacts Chinacoal-firedpowerplantsdatabase WRF-CMAQ Modelingsystem Integratedexposuremodel PM2.5mass Concentration Prematuremortality EmissionScenarios Reviewof controlpoliciesandmeasuresonpowerplants

  7. 2.1Emissionscenariosdesign • Sixemissionscenarios:twoactual,twohistorical,twopredicted

  8. 2.2EstimationofcontributionsofpowerplantstoPM2.5airquality • WRF-CMAQmodel(sixscenariosimulations,onezero-outsimulations)

  9. 2.3EstimationofthePM2.5-relatedprematuremortality • IERfunctions • Fivehealthendpoints:lung cancer(LC) , ischemic heart disease ( IHD) , chronicobstructive pulmonary disease and stroke for adultsage 25 and above, and acute lower respiratory infectionfor children age 5 and below. • Cause-specific mortalityrate and population by age and by sex(GBD2015 study) • Population distributionin2015(Gridded Populationof World Version 4 ) • Baselineprematuremortality AF (1) (2) (3) • Prematuremortalitycontributedbypowerplants • Prematuremortalityavoidedbycontrolpolicies AF change

  10. 3.1The airpollutantsemissionsofpowerplants,reducedlargely bycontrolmeasuresduring2005-2020 • Largeairpollutantsemissionsreductions,2005-2020 • Powergeneration+117%;SO2:-91.0%;NOx :-79.1%;PM2.5:-80.0%，2005-2020

  11. 3.2Theshiftinemissionsrate(emissions per unit capacity)overtime NOx PM2.5 SO2 2005REF reduced 2015REF reduced 2020ULE

  12. 3.3EstimationofcontributionsofpowerplantstoPM2.5airquality • Modelevaluation • Simulated 55.1 μg/m3 andobserved PM2.5 52.8 μg/m3acrossChinain2015. • Reproduce high PM2.5 polluted locations in eastern and central China

  13. 3.4PM2.5impactsofpowerplantsandrelatedbenefits,2005-2020 Contributedbypower plantsin2015 Pop-weightedPM2.5 • Improvementofend-of-pipemeasures • Reduced7.9ug/m3 • Optimizationofpowerplantfleetstructure • Reduced2.1ug/m3 • Ultra-lowemissionstandards • Reduced2.6ug/m3 Reductions,2005-2015 Reductions,2015-2020

  14. 3.5AvoidedPM2.5-relatedprematuredeathsduetoemissioncontrolonpowerplants,2005-20203.5AvoidedPM2.5-relatedprematuredeathsduetoemissioncontrolonpowerplants,2005-2020 • InChina,186thousandprematuredeathsavoidedduetocontrolmeasuresonpowerplants(2 times the PM2.5-related mortality induced by CPPs in 2015). • Guangdong Province(large population density)andHenan Province(largest PM2.5reductions) are supposed to avoid mortalities of 22,100 and 13,700 annually, respectively, ranking as the top two of all provinces.

  15. 4Discussion • Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of CPPs control policies on emission reductions, air quality improvement and human health protection during 2005-2020. We estimated that 12.5 ug/m3 PM2.5 exposures will be reduced and 186,800 related premature deaths are expected to be avoided annually as the result of emission control measures on CPPs in China. • The countermeasures on China’s CPPs can provide valuable guidelines for emission control in the power sector in other developing countries. Upgrading end-of-pipe facilities inChinasuccessfully decreased CPPs emissions over a relatively short-term period without fundamental adjustments to energy structures.InIndia,due to the lack of strict emission control policies, the emission factors for CPPs are relatively steady .The coal power generation in India is projected to increase by 49.3% andcause substantial air pollutionwithouteffectivecontrol.

  16. 4Discussion • Limitationsanduncertainty • Emission scenarios developedbased on the CPED database, which is established using an annual averaged unit-specific emission factor. These emission factors are determined by the coal quality and combustion equipment type of each unit, which could not reflect the variation in emission rates arising from operating status changes. • Nonlinear effectsofzero-outmethods,additional bias was introduced due to the nonlinear relationship between the changes in emissions and that in the simulated PM2.5 concentrations. • Estimation of premature mortality attributable to PM2.5 exposure contains large uncertainties, particularly in the higher-exposure concentrations.  We expect thatthe health benefits arising from the air qualityimprovements associated with emissions reductionsfrom CPPs could be larger if the estimation is madeusing theGEMMmodel.

  17. Thankyou! Email:wurl15@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn wuruili2015@gmail.com

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