Elena Filchuk, Igor Ashik, Vladimir Pavlov

1. Elena Filchuk, Igor Ashik, Vladimir Pavlov

2. PLAN OF RESEARCH 1st stage Analysis of studies of the long-period levels oscillations on the World ocean and the seas of the Arctic ocean, in particular Barents and Norwegian Seas based on the literature sources. 2nd stage Creation of the climatic data base by sea level, hydrological and meteorological parameters a basis of hydrometeorological stations of the studied region (Barents and Norwegian Seas). 3rd stage Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations and the separate parameters of the climatic variability in different parts of the investigated region; to reveal and to analyze relationships of cause and effect of long-period level oscillations and factors their defining

4. 2 stage

5. For formation of level data base were used Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) and AARI.

6. 3 stage Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations Observed sea level trends

7. Reykjavik 0.89 Kabelvag 0.67 Kjolsdal 0.55 0.73 Evenskjaer 0.57 Torshavn 0.84 Narvik 0.64 Bodo 0.84 0.54 0.76 Stavanger 0.76 0.88 Trondheim Harstad 0.85 0.83 0.72 Bergen Subarea North part of Norwegian sea 0.83 Rorvik Tromso 0.66 0.87 Maloy 0.78 Hammerfest 0.82 0.79 Alesund Subarea South part of Norwegian sea 0.70 Honningsvag 0.73 0.77 Kristiansund 0.63 0.87 Heimsjo 0.62 0.73 0.89 0.74 Barentsburg Teriberka Poljarnyi Linakhamari Pikshuev cape 0.75 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.52 0.81 Bugrino Belyi Nos 0.59 Krenkelja Murmansk 0.73 0.75 Region of Barents sea Bolvanskii Nos Russkaja Gavan 0.79 0.48 Malye Karmakuly

8. Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation function and power spectrum for Tromso

9. Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation function and power spectrum for Heimsjo

10. Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation function and power spectrum for Barentsburg

11. Analyze of connection between of longoperiodical sea level changes on Barents and Norwegian seas and factors their defining. 1. Surface pressure • Correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and annual sea level pressure was calculated. After analyzing the results it is possible to spike about: • Maximum coefficient correlation does not take place at the point of station position. • 2. For most of stations the central and north parts of Norwegian Sea are regions of location of maximum correlation coefficients between sea level and surface pressure.

12. Correlation between annual sea level on Bergen and Sea level pressure BERGEN

13. Correlation between annual sea level on Narvik and Sea level pressure NARVIK

14. Analyze of connection between of longoperiodical sea level changes on Barents and Norwegian seas and factors their defining. 2. WIND • Maximum coefficient correlation does not take place at the point of station position. • Location of maximum correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and wind does not take place at the point maximum correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and annual sea level pressure . • Barentsburg station has 2 regions with approximately equal maximum coefficient correlation (0.709 for 60N, 2.5E and 0.699 for 87N, 20E). However, effective storm surges direction of the wind on this region differs. • For most of stations the south part of Norwegian Sea is region of location of maximum coefficient correlation (table 1).

15. Table 1. Value of maximum correlation coefficient, location of maximum correlation coefficient and wind direction on these points.

16. pressure NARVIK wind

17. wind1 BARENCBURG pressure wind2

18. 3.NAO and RIVER RUNOFF

19. 70s 50s 80s 60s Decadal mean anomalies of the sea level (cm) of Arctic ocean (modeling results)

20. Forecast of sea level changes on Norwegian and Barents seas using water and ice codynamics model (AARI).

21. CONCLUSION all work • 1) The Analysis of studies of the long-period levels oscillations for World Ocean by the literature sources was carried out. • 2) The climatic database for sea level, hydrological and meteorological parameters on basis of hydrometeorological stations of the studied region (Barents and Norwegian Seas) have created. The program package has been produced for work with data base. These programs calculate the basic statistics, power spectrum. • 3) Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations and the separate parameters of the climatic variability in different parts of the investigated region have carried out. Relationships of cause and effect of long-period levels oscillations and some defining factors (wind, pressure, NAO, river runnof) have been analyzed.