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Naval Oceanography: Excellence in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Naval Oceanography: Excellence in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting. Rear Admiral Dave Titley Oceanographer of the Navy Presented to Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Savannah, GA 1 March 2010. EXPERIMENTAL TC-COR SETTINGS SITE TC-COR Agrihan 2 Alamagan 2 Anatahan 2

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Naval Oceanography: Excellence in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

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  1. Naval Oceanography: Excellence in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting Rear Admiral Dave Titley Oceanographer of the Navy Presented to Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Savannah, GA 1 March 2010

  2. EXPERIMENTAL TC-COR SETTINGS SITE TC-COR Agrihan 2 Alamagan 2 Anatahan 2 Pagan 2 Saipan 3 Tinian 4 Battlespace on Demand:Minimizing TC Impact on Naval operations • Tier 3 – Decision Layer • Strike Probability • Condition of Readiness • Sortie Options • Tier 2 – Performance • TC Warnings • Wave probabilities ~ $1-2M/yr • Tier 1 – Modeling • NUOPC/HFIP • COAMPS - TC • ESPC ~ $9M/yr • Tier 0 – Environment • Remote Sensing • In situ Obs

  3. Environment TierRemote Sensing and Observations • The Navy is heavily dependent/leveraged upon partnerships for satellite based observational data. • Advocate better use of existing data streams v. new sensors. • Navy programmed investments targeted at oceanographic applications (e.g., GFO 2, UUVs) • Key Capability Gaps • Ocean Surface Vector Winds • Scatterometer • Radar • GPS reflection • Soundings • Rawinsonde? • Radiometer • LIDAR

  4. Modeling TierTrack and Intensity forecasts Track is top priority. The Navy views improvements to global modeling capability as best means to improve track forecasts. Navy/NOAA/USAF Partnership is key enabler NUOPC HFIP (NHC / JTWC) Earth System Prediction Capability Structure and Intensity: Storm Scale modeling initiatives HWRF/HFIP TC-COAMPS • Improvements in structure and intensity forecasts dependent on first improving track forecasts 4

  5. Performance and Decision Tiers TC warnings ATCF Improvements Wave Heights Matching TC tracks to WW3 Surge and inundation RTP FY01 Improvement to TC Model Forecasts FY02 Modeling TC Structure and Track FY06 4DVAR for Global Atmospheric Weather Prediction FY09 Prediction of TC Track and intensity Using COAMPS-TC Probability Based Decision Tools TCCOR Sortie • Conveying Uncertainly reduces uncertainty 5

  6. SummaryPartnerships = Success • Navy supportive of and dependent on “Federal Solution” for remote sensing needs • Accurate track forecasts key to enabling naval operations—global modeling improvements best investment • Significant investment in NUOPC and next-generation modeling in cooperation with NOAA and USAF • Basic Research on intensity and Structure needed • Support OFCM WG/TCR • Storm-scale modeling initiatives • Link Forecasts to Decisions • Describing uncertainty reduces uncertainty.

  7. Questions?

  8. DoD TC Forecasting Goals v.2 72hr 120hr 168hr 75nm 150nm 200nm 24hr 48hr 72hr 50nm 100nm 150nm old new

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