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NPOESS Applications to Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting*

NPOESS Applications to Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting*. Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO. Presented at the COMET NPOESS Workshop Boulder, Colorado May 4, 2006 *Funding from NPOESS Intergovernmental Studies (IGS) Program. Outline. VIIRS imagery analysis

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NPOESS Applications to Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting*

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  1. NPOESS Applications to Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting* Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO Presented at the COMET NPOESS Workshop Boulder, Colorado May 4, 2006 *Funding from NPOESS Intergovernmental Studies (IGS) Program

  2. Outline • VIIRS imagery analysis • Proxy data from MODIS, AVHRR • Tropical cyclone soundings from CrIS/ATMS • Proxy data from AIRS/AMSU and numerical simulations • Subsurface ocean structure from altimeter data • Proxy altimeter data from Jason, GFO • Ocean surface winds from CMIS • Proxy CMIS data from Windsat

  3. Tropical Cyclone Time Scales • < 1 hour - individual cumulus clouds • 6-12 hour – eyewall circulation • 12-24 hour – synoptic scale steering flow • 24-48 hour – TC ocean response • 1-30 days – mesoscale ocean eddies • ½ year – seasonal cycle • Years to decades – hurricane climate variations • NPOESS data is appropriate for all except cloud scale

  4. VIIRS applications • Intensity estimation of primary circulation • Modified “Dvorak” technique to utilize enhanced horizontal resolution • Eye and eyewall feature analysis • Use proxy data to compare GOES and VIIRS resolution

  5. Hurricane Wilma 2005 Near Peak Intensity MODIS 1 km IR Window Channel Degraded to GOES 4 km resolution

  6. Hurricane Wilma 2005 Before Yucatan Landfall MODIS 1 km IR Window Channel Degraded to GOES 4 km resolution

  7. Library of VIIRS Proxy Data • Web site being created at CIRA • All Dvorak scene types included • curved band, CDO, shear, eye • Vis and IR proxy from AVHRR and MODIS • Quantitative statistics on impact of resolution on cold ring, eye temperature

  8. Tropical Cyclone Soundings from ATMS/CrIS • Temperature/moisture soundings in storm environment for track prediction • Hurricane eye soundings for intensity monitoring • Balanced wind retrievals for storm structure analysis • Proxy data from AIRS/AMSU and numerical model analysis

  9. Storm Environment Soundings • Obtain AIRS/AMSU soundings in storm environments from AIRS science team retrivals • Compare to in situ data from NOAA Gulfstream jet • Do the retrievals provide “value-added” information relative to NCEP analyses? • Hurricane Lili 2002 case study

  10. Co-located AIRS Retrievals and NOAA Jet GPS Dropsondes for Hurricane Lili 2002

  11. Soundings from AIRS, Eta Model Analysis, and NOAA Jet in Lili Environment

  12. Comparison of AIRS and NCEP Eta Model Analysis Temperature Errors for Hurricane Lili(with GPS dropsonde ground truth) • AIRS/AMSU provides consider value-added except where cloud contaminated • CrIS/ATMS should be even better due to improved spatial resolution

  13. Hurricane Eye Soundings • Obtain AIRS/AMSU retrievals in storm eyes • Integrate hydrostatic equation from 100 mb to the surface • NCEP analysis boundary condition at 100 mb • Compare estimated sea level pressure to in situ data • 6 cases analyzed so far • 2 from Lili 2002 (small eye) • 4 from Isabel 2003 (large eye)

  14. Cases with AIRS/AMSU Eye Soundings Lili 2002 Isabel 2003

  15. Temperature AnomaliesFrom AIRS/AMSU Soundings

  16. Isabel Lili Minimum Pressure From AIRS/AMSU Sounding Integration

  17. Proxy NPOESS Data from Numerical Simulations • CrIS will have improved horizontal resolution compared to AIRS • ATMS will have improved horizontal resolution compared to AMSU • No real data currently available for true NPOESS proxy • Alternate Solution: • Synthetic data from numerical/radiative transfer

  18. Numerical Proxy Data System • RAMS Cloud Model • Non-hydrostatic cloud-scale model • Nested grids • 50 km, 10 km, 2 km, 400 m for hurricanes • Sophisticated cloud microphysics • Land surface and boundary layer physics • Model output is input to radiative transfer code for synthetic satellite data

  19. Radiative Transfer Code • OPTRAN code used to calculate gaseous transmittances • Modified anomalous diffraction theory (MADT) for cloud optical properties • assumes gamma distribution N(D) = N0Dυe-λD for the calculated mean diameter: Dmean = F(rc,nc). • single scatter albedo, extinction coefficient, asymmetry factor for 7 hydrometeor types • weighting by hydrometeor number concentration from RAMS for bulk optical properties • Delta-Eddington formulation for IR bands • Spherical Harmonics Discrete Ordinate Method (SHDOM) for Vis and Near IR bands • Plane parallel version (1-D) of SHDOM from CU (F. Evans)

  20. Synthetic IR Imagery for Hurricane Lili Simulation

  21. Synthetic Imagery/Data for NPOESS Testing Vertical Cross-Section of Hurricane Lili Temperature Anomaly with typical AMSU and ATMS retrievals. Quantitative analysis of resolution impact under way

  22. SST Influence on Tropical Cyclones • Palmen (1948) • SST 26oC is needed for TC formation • Miller (1958), Emanuel (1988) • SST provides upper bound on intensity • Maximum Potential Intensity • Giesler (1970) • barotropic/baroclinic response, hurricane “wake” • VIIRS, CMIS, CrIS for SST algorithms • Altimeter for sub-surface ocean structure

  23. Composite AVHRR SST from Hurricane Isabel 2003. Note the cold wake from hurricane Fabian. (From Johns Hopkins University Ocean Remote Sensing Group web page)

  24. Satellite Altimetry • Ocean altimetry provides routine measures of upper ocean heat content • Topex/Poseiden, GFO, Jason, Envisat …NPOESS • Integrated heat excess from depth of 26oC isotherm to the surface • NHC uses GFO/Jason product for operational forecasting

  25. Hurricane Katrina Intensity and SST and NHC Ocean Heat Content Analysis OHC SST

  26. Impact on NHC Operational Statistical Model Forecasts for Category 5 Storms • Isabel (03), Ivan (04), Katrina, Rita, Wilma (05) • Verify only over-water part of forecast

  27. Storm Structure Analysis • Large variability in outer circulation size • JTWC interest in 50 kt wind radii for ship routing • NHC interest in 34 kt radii for evacuation planning, 64 kt winds for hurricane warnings • NPOESS wind radii methods: • Ocean surface winds from CMIS • ATMS/CrIS balance winds

  28. Florida Landfalls Charley 2004 and Wilma 2005

  29. ATMS/CrIS Balance Winds • Integrate T, RH soundings to get pressure field • Using nonlinear balance equation to get winds • Algorithm testing with AIRS/AMSU proxy data AMSU nonlinear balance winds for Hurricane Ivan (2004)

  30. CMIS Ocean Surface Winds • Windsat data is proxy • Valid for wind structure, not inner core • Can be combined with nonlinear balance winds, other satellite winds Windsat Retrieval for Hurricane Fabian (2003) from NESDIS Alogrithm (from Zorana Jelenak)

  31. Summary • NPOESS holds great promise for hurricane analysis and forecasting • Temporal resolution is good match for most processes • VIIRS, ATMS/CrIS, CMIS and altimeter all useful • Track forecasting, intensity and structure monitoring • Assimilation in numerical forecast models • NPOESS TC proxy data/algorithm development web site under development at CIRA • IGS project

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