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PROPOSED SITE OF STUDY AREA

Extended Range Weather Forecast and its use for Climatic Risk Management in Rice & Wheat Crops for farmers of Udham Singh Nagar Distt. of Uttarakhand FOR PRESENTION DURING 27 - 30 APRIL, 2009 AT Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad BY Dr. H. S. KUSHWAHA

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PROPOSED SITE OF STUDY AREA

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  1. Extended Range Weather Forecast and its use for Climatic Risk Management in Rice & Wheat Crops for farmers of Udham Singh Nagar Distt. of Uttarakhand FOR PRESENTION DURING 27 - 30 APRIL, 2009 AT Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad BY Dr. H. S. KUSHWAHA PROFESSOR AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL FIELD UNIT DEPARTMENT OF SOIL SCIENCE COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURE G. B. PANT UNIVERSITY OF AGRI. & TECH., PANTNAGAR - 263145 (UTTARAKHAND)

  2. PROPOSED SITE OF STUDY AREA UDHAM SINGH NAGAR DISTT. OF UTTARAKHAND

  3.  Pantnagar Sitarganj

  4. Proposed Project summary

  5. Rice-Wheat cropping system The rice-wheat cropping system is a very important and popular cropping system being followed in the tarai area of Uttarakhand state in general and Udham Singh Nagar district in particular. The area, characterized by shallow water table and moist soil regime, lies within a narrow east-west strip of 8 to 25 km wide, on an outwash plain, gently slopping (<1%) southwards below the Bhabar tract along the foot hills of the Himalayas. The entire area is dissected by a number of small streams originating as springs from the junctions of Bhabar and tarai belts. In India, about 10.0 million hectare area is under rice-wheat cropping system and of this a large portion (4.8 m ha) falls in the tarai area of Uttarakhand. The sowing of wheat after rice is being followed since about more than five decades after bringing the area under crop cultivation since its deforestation in 1950.

  6. Climate Risk Management • Rice-wheat cropping system is a major system in which complete recommended set of agronomic practices is followed including timely control of pests and diseases, proper integrated nutrient management, application of balanced fertilizers and crop residue management, recommended tillage practices after harvesting of rice and control of weed flora over a time period under different conditions and crop stages. In-spites of these the yield of wheat after rice in the area has declined after the green revolution. It was thought that this decline in trend may be due to over irrigation or irrigation followed by medium to heavy rainfall. Crop productivity can be affected by climatic variations in two ways : • Directly due to changes in the climatic conditions mainly temperature and precipitation and • Indirectly through changes in soil, distribution and frequency of infestation by insects and diseases under adverse weather conditions or weeds in productive land. • In this study, the climatic risk management of rice-wheat cropping system will be evaluated by studying impacts of temperature and rainfall conditions through extended range forecast.

  7. Summary of location of study area

  8. G. B. Pant University of Agriculture & Technology, Pantnagar (29o N latitude, 79o 30'E longitude and altitude 243.84 m amsl) situated in Udham Singh Nagar District and is located in tarai and bhabar agroclimatic zone of Uttarakhand. The University has a well established meteorological observatory since 1961. All important weather variables including maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, relative humidity, pan evaporation, bright sunshine recorder, wind speed & direction, soil temperature are recorded daily since 1961.The annual average rainfall of Udham Singh Nagar district is 1433.4 mm as shown in Fig.1. (month average), 90 % of which is received during south-west monsoon season thus deciding the productivity of rice during kharif season. The maximum temperature ranges from 41.5+1.5 oC during summer and lowest minimum temperature ranges from 2.5 +1.5 oC. A total of 100 mm rainfall is received through winter rains as a result of 5 to 15 western disturbances experienced in the area. The normal average rainfall during kharif season is 1247. 4 mm, while during Rabi season it is 109.4 mm.The week average weather conditions during kharif 2007 are sown if Fig2., while during Rabi season of 2007-08 are shown if Fig.3. The study area is 35 km away from the University campus.

  9. Weather related problem of the area

  10. More than 78 % of farmers in Udham Singh Nagar district are small and marginal and are thus vulnerable to climate variability and lack access to relevant information that might enable farmers to respond to seasonal conditions. Climate risk management through extended range forecasts would be more appropriate in this area of the State. The area is more than 90 % irrigated and rainfall and temperature during the kharif and rabi season decide the productivity of rice & wheat, respectively, in the area. Currently agro-meteorological advisories are issued only once in a week on every Tuesday based on Ensemble Medium Range Weather Forecast (MRWF) received of IMD. However, the advisories concern the next 4 – 5 day period and are issued at an agro-climatic zone scale which may not be sufficiently relevant at a district level. Forecast of the monsoon season (June to September) rainfall as normal from IMD was issued in April, 2009 and will be updated in late June. Farmers of the area have been made aware about this. Advisories are mostly communicated through personal contacts, Electronic & Print media for the benefit of farmers on their request.

  11. Current weekly advisories focus on short term response to pests and diseases rather than issues such as crop choice or adjusting input levels to suit the unfolding seasonal conditions. Such decisions require interpretation of extended range forecast / seasonal climatic information into its agricultural production practices and this capability is not currently available at a district level. Major climatic Constraints in Crop Production 1. Early withdrawal of monsoon and drop in minimum temperature from 20 September to 15 October is the major constraint for rice production. 2. Also low rainfall and sudden in temperatures both maximum & minimum temperatures from 20 November and in early March causes low yields in wheat crop in the area

  12. Technical details • The skill of new extended range forecast / seasonal climate forecasts need to be assessed at district level and the selected district is Udham Singh Nagar of Uttarakhand. • 2. Climate predictions need to be made relevant to on-farm climate risk management decisions at the district level. • 3. Communication of climate risk management issues must reach villages and be tailored to build on local capacity.

  13. Objectives • To collect necessary data and information to support risk management research with respect to Agriculture in the demonstrate district, Udham Singh Nagar (Uttarakhand) • To assess the nature of climate related problems - seasonal calendar, crops and cropping patterns, Insect pests. • To assess crop management options in response to extended range / seasonal climate forecast by utilizing crop simulation models. • To assess the reliability of seasonal climatic forecast in the identified district • To quantify the vulnerability of climate using available historical weather data for rice during Kharif season and for wheat during rabi season. • Develop and evaluate options for effective dissemination and adoption of climate forecasts and agricultural advisories • To model the different scenario of climate at 15 day interval for these Rice & wheat crops and to develop decision support system (DSS) frame net work for seasonal climate forecast (SCF).

  14. Importance of the proposed project in the context of current status Providing 15 days weather forecast would be very much useful in reducing the cost of inputs and earning more in terms of yields. This would be a unique experiment at farmers field for their economic benefits.

  15. Work Plan Since the funds have been received from IIT Delhi, the work on proposed project has been started from April 1, 2009 for Rice crop in Sitarganj Block of district of Udham Singh Nagar where 6 villages have been identified.

  16. Methodology Six villages of Sitarganj block of Udham Singh Nagar district for more in-depth study of their socio- economic status, vulnerability, livelihood activities, seasonal cycles, impact of climate variability and existing coping mechanisms will be made in coming days.

  17. Name of Identified villages • Sisona • Baban Puri • Jhadi • Nakulia • Maalpuri • Maina Jhundi

  18. Name of Crops & Cropping System Two predominant crops – Rice during Kharif season of 2009 and Wheat during rabi season of 2009-10 will be selected to develop suitable crop management options by utilizing seasonal / extended range forecasts to address climate related risks. Rice-Wheat Cropping System will be selected for this study. Sowing dates & duration of crops Date of sowing of Rice in Nursery : 25 May to 15 June Date of transplanting of Rice : 15 June to 30 July Dates of sowing of Wheat : 15 November to 20 December

  19. Budget Received (Rs.) for 2008-09 (for six months)

  20. THANKS

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