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Performance of CWB WRF in 2008 Typhoon track forecast and relocation

Performance of CWB WRF in 2008 Typhoon track forecast and relocation Test of WRF V3.0 and next generation of CWB WRF. Outline. Evolution of operational CWB WRF in 2008 Verification Jan to Aug (cold start  cycling) May to Aug (cycling) Typhoon track forecast Problems in CWB WRF

denise-hayes
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Performance of CWB WRF in 2008 Typhoon track forecast and relocation

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  1. Performance of CWB WRF in 2008 • Typhoon track forecast and relocation • Test of WRF V3.0 and next generation of CWB WRF

  2. Outline • Evolution of operational CWB WRF in 2008 • Verification • Jan to Aug (cold start  cycling) • May to Aug (cycling) • Typhoon track forecast • Problems in CWB WRF • Preliminary results of DFI

  3. Operational change of CWB WRF • 2007.05.09 • Parallel run in WRFVAR V2.1+ WRF V2.2, cold start • 2007-11-12 • Operation of WRFVAR V2.1+WRF V2.2, cold start2008.02.22 • 2008.02.22 • WRFVAR SATEM code bug fix(DA_Read_Obs.inc, DA_get_innov_vector_satem.inc) • 2008-03-12 • Modify the ingest fields of the CWBGFS (B00100B02100, B00200B10200, B00210B10210, B00510B10510) • 2008.04.09 • Update WRFVAR • Additional output forqcobs, filterobs, thickerr, pseudo. • Modify the namelist.3dvar as analysis_type = 'QC-OBS' sfc_assi_options = 2, cv_options_hum = 1, Interpolate_Stats = .FALSE. • 2008-05-12 • Operation of update cycle in WRF V2.2.1 update cycle 版本上線。 • MP, WSM5Goddard microphysics, LSM, thermal diffusion  NOAH, num_soil_layers 45)

  4. Operational change of CWB WRF • 2008-05-14 • Operation for member run: WRF V2.2.1, cold start, first guess from NCEP GFS • 2008-05-23 • Bug found as RAINC=0 (thanks Jim’s help) CUP chanf from old kf to grell temporally. • 2008-05-30 • Bug fix of the RAINC=0, compile option in WRF changes from O3 –qhot to O2. (thanks Jim again) • Compile option in WRF VAR changes from O3 to O2. • Modify registry.EM to remove out the unnecessary radiation output. (thanks Jim double again) • modify OBS_FGGE_PROC, to withdraw the sounding at DonSa island (46810) • 2008-07-22 • Bug fix in Goddard MPS (error in a real variable declaration (cloud ice), fixed code reduced the could ice slightly)

  5. Description of the assimilation system • Model version • WRF WPS V2.1 • WRF 3D-VAR V2.1 • WRF V2.2.1 • 4 times per day, 84-hr forecast with 1-hr output frequency • IC: WRF 3D-VAR analysis over 3-nested domain • Cycling, firstguess from 6-hr fcst of the previous WRF run • assimilation windows: -3h~＋3h • BC: CWB GFS • 16 pressure levels

  6. Domains D1: 45-km resolution 222X128 dt=180 s D2: 15-km resolution 184X196 dt=90 s D3: 5-km resolution 151X181 dt=30 s

  7. 45 levels in the vertical, Ptop=30 hPa

  8. Physical process *Initialized by the 2-layer LSM (OSU) of CWB GFS

  9. Verification for Jan  Aug

  10. Cycling run Most of the worse AC occurred at 500 hPa were related to the typhoon activities.

  11. Abrupt change due to the bug fix of old KF

  12. Bug fix for old KF Has a trend to reduce the ME of T at 850 hPa in op WRF Large ME at 300 hPa for NCEP cold start run

  13. No significant change on RMSE in the update of old KF In 72-hr fcst, the RMSE of the cycling run was reduced a lot.

  14. Has a trend to reduce the RMSE of op WRF at 850 hPa.

  15. Systematic characteristics are not only model dependent (NFS vs WRF), but also initial condition dependent (WRF-OP v.s. WRF-AVN)

  16. Verification for May  Aug

  17. The cold start from the NCEP GFS has the best performance

  18. The cold start from the NCEP GFS has the best performance

  19. The worst RMS of 500-hPa H in op WRF is very critical in the application of the NWP products to the forecaster.

  20. 24-hr 24-hr 72-hr 72-hr 5-8 1-8 • Systematic characteristics are not only model dependent (NFS vs WRF), but also initial condition dependent (WRF-OP v.s. WRF-AVN) • Cold start and cycling run in WRF-OP is very similar, it looks that the difference between WRF-OP and WRF-AVN is a BC issue. • How to spread the ensemble run as possible?

  21. The characteristics of the verification results in D2 is similar to D1

  22. Summary • The bug fix of old KF results in abrupt change of ME, however, has no evident change in RMSE • The 850-hPa T fcst has a trend to reduce the ME and RMSE. • The bad AC at 500 hPa is mostly related to the typhoon activities. • In RMSE, the cold start from WRF-NCEP has the best performance. • The worst RMS of 500-hPa H in op WRF is critical. • In ME, the three models have their own characteristics. In overall, the WRF-OP has smaller ME through the whole atmosphere. • All the verification is based on their own analysis fields. What is the difference among the analysis?

  23. Tau = 00 forecast SH in WRF-OP is stronger than WRF-NCEP

  24. Tau = 00 forecast

  25. 12 hrs forecast

  26. 012 WRFOPS 012 WRFAVN Obs rainfall

  27. 24 hrs forecast Too stronge

  28. Tau = 24 forecast

  29. 024 WRFOPS 024 WRFAVN Obs rainfall

  30. Tau = 36 forecast Both WRF are comparable for SH fcst

  31. Tau = 36 forecast

  32. 036 WRFOPS 036 WRFAVN Obs rainfall

  33. 48 hrs forecast Underfcst for SH

  34. Tau = 48 forecast

  35. 048 WRFOPS 048 WRFAVN

  36. Tau = 0 forecast Mean : 500 hpa Height SLP 08060300-08063012

  37. Tau = 12 forecast Mean : 500 hpa Height SLP 08060300-08063012

  38. Tau = 24 forecast Mean : 500 hpa Height SLP 08060300-08063012

  39. Tau = 36 forecast Mean : 500 hpa Height SLP 08060300-08063012

  40. Tau = 48 forecast Mean : 500 hpa Height SLP 08060300-08063012

  41. 012 WRFOPS 012 WRFAVN

  42. 024 WRFOPS 024 WRFAVN

  43. 036 WRFOPS 036 WRFAVN

  44. 08060300 – 08063012 Tau = 36 forecast 10 m –Wind Bias

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