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Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana

Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana. Ashwin Mysore Gerald J. Friedman Fellow in Nutrition and Citizenship. Transgenic crops, agricultural development & developing countries. Relevance and potential of transgenic crops in developing countries…

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Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana

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  1. Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana Ashwin Mysore Gerald J. Friedman Fellow in Nutrition and Citizenship

  2. Transgenic crops, agricultural development & developing countries Relevance and potential of transgenic crops in developing countries… The debate continues… ISAAA, 2007.

  3. "Will it take a miracle to solve the worlds hunger problems?" Campbell, 1998; FAO, 2007; Sprague, undated; South Dakota Dept of Agriculture, undated.

  4. “ Golden Rice can reduce Vitamin A Deficiency burden in India by 8-59 %” Golden Rice Humanitarian Board; UN, 1998; Stein, Sachdev and Qaim, 2008.

  5. How Much Hope and How Much Hype? Estimating the Benefit of Drought Tolerant Transgenic Crops for Ghana Ashwin Mysore & Kathleen Merrigan, AFE Program, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy Under Review, World Development FAO, 2001; www.luventicus.org

  6. Drought tolerant transgenic crops in pipeline- Corn, Soy, Cotton, Canola, Tomato Corn: 2010-2015 MX variety : 10 % higher yield under drought conditions MY variety : 40 % higher yield Tomato: Advanced stage of development TX variety : 20 % higher yield TY variety : 38% higher yield Africa News Network; AVRDC, 2006; Various media reports and project documents of Monsanto, Evogene

  7. Why Ghana? High food insecurity among food crop growing farmers Drought episodes, erratic rainfall compounded by declining soil fertility • Low access to irrigation • Total cultivated area (2002-05) : 5.2 mha • Total irrigation potential :1.9 mha • Irrigated area (2000) : 0.31mha Corn and tomato are important crops Aggrey Fynn et al., 2006; FAOSTAT; FAO, 2005a,b; Horna et al., 2006; IWMI.

  8. Estimating potential benefits Outcome indicator of interest: gross returns ($ / ha) with technology adoption Study variables: • Average yield and producer prices (1991-2005) • Reduction in yield and gross returns due to varying intensity of drought • Gains in yield due to technology adoption • Technology Fee All calculations for Ghana and the US Sprague, undated; USDA, undated.

  9. Yield loss (%) due to drought incidence Technology fees Based on existing trends – cost difference between traits & countries US: $127/ha; Ghana: $ 71/ha. Campos et al., 2004; Farm Service Agency, 2007; FAO, 2005a; Heisey and Edmeades, 1998; IITA, undated; USDA Risk Management Agency, 2007.

  10. Returns ($) per $ investment on technology

  11. Contribution of drought tolerant corn towards household food security Sensitivity analysis for maize by considering 3 levels of technology fees T1: $53.3; T2: $71.0; T3: $88.8 Household (4 members) cost of meeting minimum food and nutrition requirements- $305.2 % household food and nutrition requirements met by adopting MY variety

  12. Study implications Potential for water conservation and management in tomato production First generation corn varieties unlikely to benefit farmers Gains to US farmers greatest Technology fee – key issue which will determine technology adoption and benefits

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