Action Groups Against High Speed Two (AGAHST)

1. Action Groups Against High Speed Two (AGAHST) Swillington, Oulton & Woodlesford HS2 Action Together 18th March 2013 Andrew Bodman

2. Introduction • Andrew Bodman • Addressing government claims • Paving Bill • Voluntary Purchase Zone and Safeguarding • Campaigning • Questions

3. Main groups opposed to HS2 • Action Groups Against High Speed Two (AGAHST) • HS2 Action Alliance • STOP HS2 • Local Action Groups • 51M

4. Opposing government claims • Some of the government claims for HS2 are offered without any supporting evidence • Some other claims are made based on unsound evidence • You are encouraged to take every opportunity to challenge these views whether it is with a politician, during a pub discussion or elsewhere

5. HS2 is needed because capacity is about to run out on the West Coast Mainline • DfT reluctantly admitted Virgin trains were 52% full during evening peak time departures in 2011 • Since then over half the Virgin fleet of Pendolinos have been extended from 9 carriages to 11 • Current loading at peak times has been estimated at less than 40% • Further capacity increases are possible by implementing the Optimised Alternative (see 51M website) • HS2 has no growth potential (London – Birmingham) after 2032/3. 18 trains per hour, none to Europe

6. HS2 will create thousands of jobs and reduce the North South divide - 1 • DfT has indicated 73% of the new jobs for Phase One will be in London • Some of these jobs will not be additional employment opportunities, but the moving of existing jobs • Many small businesses along the route will be destroyed which will result in job losses • TaxPayers’ Alliance has calculated that other job creation schemes would be four times more effective

7. HS2 will create thousands of jobs and reduce the North South divide - 2 Professor John Tomaney from Newcastle University has said: • “In a situation where you have one dominant capital and you connect that dominant capital to peripheral cities and regions by high speed rail, the bulk of the gains accrue to the capital. The evidence for that is very strong.” • “Looked at from a regional development perspective, I could say that if I had £30 billion-odd to spend on regional development I would not necessarily be spending it on a high-speed rail system. We have good evidence that what matters for regional development is investment in skills, knowledge and technology.” • “I am not arguing against high-speed rail personally. I am arguing against the claim that it will transform the economic geography of the UK. There is not any evidence to support that argument. That is my point. If the objective is to transform the economic geography of the UK, you would go about it in a different way from what is being proposed in ministerial speeches and DfTconsultation documents.”

8. HS2 will create thousands of jobs and reduce the North South divide - 3 • Research Institute of Applied Economics at the University of Barcelona investigated high speed rail in several countries in 2010 and reached similar conclusions to Professor John Tomaney. • The idea that such projects bring jobs and growth was dismissed by 34 leading transport planners and economists (some of whom advised on HS2) in a letter to the FT on 22nd January 2013. • The UK needs jobs now, not in 20 years time.

9. The property compensation scheme is generous • Last Friday Mr Justice Ouseley published his judgement on the two judicial review actions brought by HS2 Action Alliance. • In a major victory for the more than 300,000 households blighted by HS2, the Court ruled that Justine Greening acted unlawfully in her 2012 decision on compensation, as it was based on a fundamentally flawed consultation process. This should lead to the Government re-consulting on the compensation scheme in a fair and lawful way. • The Judge said that the DfT “bizarrely” opted for a compensation scheme which received just 21 responses in its favour from the public, out of 36,036 responses that commented on property blight.

10. We need to keep up with other countries -1 Eurobarometer passenger satisfaction survey 2011 • Satisfaction with length of time the journey was scheduled to take (i.e. speed of travel):UK was placed second best out of 27 European countries, after Portugal We have quicker rail journey times between the capital and the five largest cities than in other major West European countries: •  Averaging 145 minutes in UK   •  151 minutes in Spain •  184 minutes in Italy •  221minutes in France •  244 minutes in Germany

11. We need to keep up with other countries -2 • Poland has decided not to build a high speed rail (hsr) network • France, Portugal and Russia have decided to scale back their plans for further high speed rail • Spain stopped running trains on one hsr route as it was only averaging 9 passengers per day. It has recently decided to reduce ticket prices by up to 70% to attract more passengers to its hsr trains • The Netherlands must be wishing they had never bothered; high speed line 3 years late, trains 5 years late, occupancy down to 15% or less, new trains withdrawn after 5 weeks and government bailouts required • Brazil is now on its fourth attempt to find a private company to build and run a high speed rail network for 35 years

12. HS2 increases our connectivity between cities • There are currently no plans for Crossrail to have a station at Old Oak Common • Birmingham Interchange (HS2) and Birmingham International are over 1 mile apart • Birmingham Curzon Street (HS2) and Birmingham New Street are a walk of at least 10 minutes apart • East Midlands (HS2) is about 7 miles from the centre of Nottingham and 10 miles from the centre of Derby • Sheffield Meadowhall (HS2) is over 3 miles from Sheffield city centre • Leeds New Lane (HS2) is separate from the existing Leeds station • Out of town stations increase city centre to city centre journey times

13. HS2 will benefit the country - 1 • The economic case presumes that all journey time savings are of benefit because people don’t work on trains. 40% of the benefits for Phase One are from journey time savings. Phase Two ??? • Passenger numbers are likely to be less than forecast which weakens the case for building HS2 and will require a greater ongoing subsidy to cover the revenue shortfall • HSR tickets were assumed to carry no premium over classic rail tickets when the DfT were forecasting passenger numbers (20% for HS1 and much more in many European countries) • Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH) v4.1 used instead of v5 (August 2009) • Passenger numbers for users of the Channel Tunnel have only reached one third of those originally forecast by the DfT

14. HS2 will benefit the country -2 • The cost of building HS1 was £5.8 billion • Two Canadian companies have bought a 30 year concession to manage HS1 for £2.1 billion • National Audit Office estimated that the total cost to taxpayers of supporting HS1 could be £10.2 billion over a 60 year period. • London – Birmingham section of HS2 is four times per mile more expensive to build than an hsr line in France • In July 2010 a World Bank report cautioned that governments planning high-speed rail systems: “. . should also contemplate the near-certainty of copious and continuing budget support for the debt”.

15. HS2 will benefit the country - 3 • Service cuts on classic rail correspond to £7 billion of savings in the business case • Leicester, Nottingham, Chesterfield, Sheffield, Peterborough and Wakefield will be some of the places having a less frequent classic rail service. Some towns and cities will also have slower trains. • Investment in improving classic rail is likely to be significantly diminished while HS2 is being built. This is the experience of France. The president of the SNCF described his state railways as: “Decaying... facing a financial impasse... and heading for the wall”.

16. HS2 Ltd is engaging with local communities • There are 26 community forums for Phase One which have been running for approximately one year • Issues raised are not actioned satisfactorily • Minutes do not reflect what was said at the meetings • HS2 representatives are not knowledgeable • Agreed mitigation plans can be subsequently changed by HS2 Ltd

17. Paving Bill • Allows money to be obtained earlier for preparation work • Allows legal access to land • Achieves political commitment from three main parties • Fills a void if the hybrid bill is late • It appears to be part of a back up plan for PR and political purposes • It indicates that the timetable and principles of HS2 are not going the Government’s way

18. Safeguarding and Voluntary Purchase Zones (VPZ) • Safeguarded areas are places where the Government will buy peoples’ homes (60 metres from centreline of track). Voluntary Purchase Zones are places where the Government may buy peoples’ homes (60 to 120 metres from centreline of track in rural areas only). • Voluntary Purchase Zones do not appear to exist in cities such as London and Birmingham • Safeguarded areas in these cities do extend more than 60 metres from the centre of the line in some places within these cities • However these safeguarded areas have been drawn to exclude as many houses as possible

19. Campaigning • First priority – bring about cancellation of HS2 • Second priority – achieve best mitigation possible and fair compensation for home owners • Influencing public opinion • Influencing politicians’ opinion • The government are very determined – you need to be too

20. Influencing public opinion -1 • Develop strong relationships with your local newspapers, radio stations, TV and other media • Comment on website articles you find • Develop your own website, Facebook page and use Twitter – already done • Display STOP HS2 car stickers • Get involved with your district and county councils. Encourage them to join 51M

21. Influencing public opinion -2 • Enter dialogue with local branches of Ramblers, Campaign to Protect Rural England (CPRE), NFU, Wildlife Trusts, Country Land & Business Association (CLA) and other similar organisations • Join the Leeds Local Access Forum • Carry out your own research and publish articles e.g. effect on property prices, poorer classic rail services post HS2, etc.

22. Influencing public opinion -3 Put up posters close to the line of the route (with landowners’ permission)

23. Influencing public opinion -4 Put up banners

24. Influencing public opinion -5 • Show people the DVD produced by Keith Hoffmeister which shows in detail the impact of HS2 Phase One • Three dimensional effect • Job losses • Raise funds by selling at £5and support an active campaigner

25. Influencing politicians’ opinion -1 • Write to your MP about the HS2 issues that concern you. If you are not satisfied with the answer, write back. • Have a series of meetings with your MP • Encourage your friends to write to their MPs using this website www.highspeedrail.org.uk • Take part in every HS2 consultation. Good advice available on HS2AA website usually towards latter part of consultation period. • Your property compensation consultation ends on 29th April 2013 – take part • Other consultations will follow – take part

26. Influencing politicians’ opinion -2 • Maximise the volume of consultation responses • 55,000 for main Phase One • We had target of 100,000 for most recent Phase One property compensation consultation – post cards • Support funding for the next steps in judicial reviews and send your contribution directly to HS2AA who are our official fund raisers on this topic

27. Campaigning requirement Campaigning requires fund raising • You need to hold auctions, wine tasting, barn dance, raffles, anything else to raise funds • You need to find those willing and able to support your cause

28. Questions • ???

29. The property compensation scheme is generous - 1 Proposed scheme for Phase One • A guaranteed purchase scheme for those properties within 60 metres of the centreline of the track – 1101 properties • A voluntary purchase scheme for those within 120m of the track and outside the M25. This contains 813 properties (of which some may be purchased) • A long term hardship scheme for generalised blight outside the 120m zone from the line, which is subject to meeting hardship conditions. 170,000 properties were within 1km of Feb 2011 route or 250m from a tunnel. 89 offers in total accepted by house sellers. 79% rejection rate so far. • Other schemes are proposed for sale and rent back and for those with homes over tunnels.

30. The property compensation scheme is generous -2 • Prospective buyer of a house in Turweston, 450 metres from proposed route of HS2 was refused a mortgage as Woolwich values the house at £0. • Reports of properties in Buckinghamshire selling at 30-40% below pre-blight values • Some properties in Northamptonshire not selling at 50% below pre-blight values

31. The property compensation scheme is generous -3 • The government ended its third property compensation consultation for HS2 Phase One on 31st January. • The first two consultations provided overwhelming support for the Property Bond • The Property Bond is also supported by the Council for Mortgage Lenders, the British Bankers Association, the National Association of Estate Agents and Country Land & Business Association • DfT remains opposed to the Property Bond which might increase the cost of HS2 by £5billion