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AN ATTEMPT FOR FORECASTING OF SOLAR FLARE INDEX DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM

AN ATTEMPT FOR FORECASTING OF SOLAR FLARE INDEX DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM. Ersin T ulunay ( 1 ) , Atila Özgüç (2), Erdem Türker Şenalp (1), Tamer Ataç (2), Yurdanur T ulunay ( 3 ) and Saffet Yeşilyurt (2)

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AN ATTEMPT FOR FORECASTING OF SOLAR FLARE INDEX DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM

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  1. AN ATTEMPT FOR FORECASTING OF SOLAR FLARE INDEX DURING SOLAR MAXIMUM Ersin Tulunay (1), Atila Özgüç (2), Erdem Türker Şenalp (1), Tamer Ataç (2), Yurdanur Tulunay (3) and Saffet Yeşilyurt (2) (1) Dept. of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey ersintul@metu.edu.tr, senalp@eee.metu.edu.tr (2) Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Res. Inst., Boğaziçi University, İstanbul, Turkey ozguc@boun.edu.tr, atac@boun.edu.tr, saffet.yesilyurt@boun.edu.tr (3) Dept. of Aerospace Engineering, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey ytulunay@metu.edu.tr 1 UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 hosted by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute on behalf of the Government of the Republic of Korea 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  2. CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2. KOERI-FI-1 3. Data Organisation 4. Results 5. Conclusions 6. Acknowledgements 7. References 2 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  3. INTRODUCTION KOERI Group: calculate and issue observatory data METU Group:specialized on data driven modelling since 1990’s Background: data and models on key parameters of the Near Earth Space processes Achievements: theoretical and experimental This work mentions theforecast of Solar Flare Index (FI) Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  4. Solar activity processes - highly non-linear and time-varying. Mathematical modeling based on first physical principles - extremely difficult if not impossible In such cases, data driven models - i.e.Neural Networks - very promising for using them in parallel to mathematical models Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  5. The Solar Flare Index (FI) calculated and issued internationally by Kandilli Observatory, İstanbul very important because of the increasing awareness of SpW situation and the effects of SpW on biological and technological systems operating on Earth and in the Near Earth Space Forecasting of FI is an important achievement in forecasting of SpW situation Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  6. Solar Flare SolarFlare:An enormous explosion in the solar atmosphere defined as a sudden, rapid and intense variation in brightness Believed to result from the sudden release of energy stored in magnetic fields [Atac, 2009] Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  7. Solar Flare Index (FI) FI: A measure of the short-lived solar flare activity on the Sun - Atac, 2009; - NASA, Solar Flare Theory; - Daily Solar Flares Images : Ondrejov Observatory Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  8. Solar Flare Index (FI) • To quantify the daily flare activity, • - Kleczek (1952) introduced the quantity • "Q = i x t " • "i" represents the intensity scale of importance and • "t" the duration (in minutes) of the flare • Assumpion:The relationship gives roughly the total energy emitted by the flares Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  9. In this work, - NN based model KOERI-FI-1 is designed and operated to forecast daily FI up to 27 days ahead To the best knowledge of the authors, - this is the first attempt to forecast FI Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  10. 1. Introduction 2. KOERI-FI-1 3. Data Organisation 4. Results 5. Conclusions Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  11. Background: - Data driven models in parallel with physical models for the Near Earth Space processes [e.g. E. Tulunay, 1991; Altinay et al., 1997; Y. Tulunay et al., 2001; Y. Tulunay et al., 2004a; Y. Tulunay et al., 2004b; E. Tulunay et al., 2004a; E. Tulunay et al., 2004b; E. Tulunay et al., 2006; Senalp et al., 2006; Y. Tulunay et al., 2008a; Y. Tulunay et al., 2008b; Senalp et al., 2008] Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  12. KOERI-FI-1 KOERI-FI-1 is designed to forecast the FI values using a technique based on Neural Networks (NN) - a data-driven modeling approach - consists of - inputs, - neurons in hidden layer and - output layer Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  13. KOERI-FI-1 Architecture: A two-layer feed forward NN Algorithm in training: Levenberg-MarquardtBackpropagation Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  14. 1. Introduction 2. KOERI-FI-1 3. Data Organisation 4. Results 5. Conclusions Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  15. FI Data - The daily flare index for the 21, 22, and 23 st Solar Cycles determined by using the final grouped solar flares compiled by the National Geophysical Data Center - FI data: produced by Dr. T. Ataç and Dr. A.Özgüç, Boğaziçi University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute [Atac, 2009] Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  16. Inputs of the KOERI-FI-1 The output : n days ahead forecast of the Solar Flare Index : FI(d+n) Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  17. Data Organisation The data provided by KOERI are grouped in three sets: Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  18. KOERI FI data for selected time intervals Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  19. 1. Introduction 2. KOERI-FI-1 3. Data Organisation 4. Results 5. Conclusions Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  20. Case Studies Four different case studies have been performed by developing four different instances of the KOERI-FI-1 The case studies consider forecasting the FI ‘n’ days in advance as follows: 1 day in advance, 3 days in advance, 25 days in advance, and 27 days in advance Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  21. RESULTS The results cover the operation of the instances of the model between 1998 and 2002 The Mean Absolute Errors and the Cross Correlation Coefficients of the observed and forecast FI are presented for four of the case studies Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  22. RESULTS Performance of the KOERI-FI-1 considering FI, SA, SN and RF(10.7) at inputs; and the Forecast FI at output Error Table for 1, 3, 25 and 27 days ahead FI forecasts Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  23. Variation of observed and 1 day ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  24. Variation of observed and 1 d ahead forecast FI in 10 Nov 2000 - 6 Sep 2001 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  25. Scatter diagram of observed and 1 d ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  26. Variation of observed and 3 days ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  27. Variation of observed and 3 d ahead forecast FI in 10 Nov 2000 - 6 Sep 2001 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  28. Scatter diagram of observed and 3 d ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  29. Variation of observed and 25 days ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  30. Scatter diagram of observed and 25 d ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  31. Variation of observed and 27 days ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  32. Scatter diagram of observed and 27 d ahead forecast FI in between 1998-2002 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  33. 1. Introduction 2. KOERI-FI-1 3. Data Organisation 4. Results 5. Conclusions Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  34. CONCLUSIONS • Daily SpW related parameters observed during the time periods including the maxima of the 21st, 22nd and 23rd solar cycles were considered • FI values have been forecast up to 27 hours in advance using the KOERI-FI-1 Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  35. CONCLUSIONS • Short term forecast results are promising • The cross-correlation coefficient values are higher and the mean absolute error values are smaller in the short-term forecasts(i.e. 1-d and 3-d in advance FI forecasts) • The model learned the general shape of the inherent non-linearity Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  36. CONCLUSIONS • Considering the extreme FI values, • - The model forecasts the tendency towards an increase or decrease in value • - However, the forecast values are less accuratequantitatively Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  37. CONCLUSIONS • The extreme FI values are very rare; • They do not provide enough representative information to the learning process • Long-term forecasts in 25-d or 27-d ahead FI forecast case studies have low accuracy Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  38. CONCLUSIONS • In summary, in this work, the capability of forecasting FI values using a data driven model, KOERI-FI-1 has been shown • To the best knowledge of the authors this has been the first attempt to forecast FI Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  39. Acknowledgements This work is partially supportedby • COST ES0803 Action • COST 296 Action (MIERS) - TUBITAK-ÇAYDAG(105Y003) Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  40. References Altinay O., E.Tulunay, and Y. Tulunay (1997), Forecasting of ionospheric critical frequency using neural networks, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24(12), 1467-1470, and COST251 TD(96)016. Atac, T.: 2009, What is Flare Index?, http://www.kandilli.boun.edu.tr/astronomy/findex.htm, web-page (last visited in Sep 2009). Kleczek, J.: 1952, Publ. Inst. Centr. Astron., No. 22, Prague Senalp E.T., E. Tulunay, and Y. Tulunay (2006), Neural Networks and Cascade Modeling Technique in System Identification, TAINN’2005, 16-17 June. 2005, Cesme, Izmir, Turkey, 286-293; Lect. Notes Artif. Int., 3949, 84-91. Senalp E.T., E. Tulunay, and Y. Tulunay (2008), Total Electron Content (TEC) Forecasting by Cascade Modeling: A Possible Alternative to the IRI-2001, Radio Sci., RS4016. Tulunay, E. (1991), Introduction to Neural Networks and their Application to Process Control, in Neural Networks Advances and Applications, edited by E. Gelenbe, pp. 241-273, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., North-Holland. Tulunay E., E.T. Senalp, Lj.R. Cander, Y.K. Tulunay, A.H. Bilge, E. Mizrahi, S.S. Kouris, N. Jakowski (2004a), Development of algorithms and software for forecasting, nowcasting and variability of TEC, Ann. Geophys.-Italy, 47(2/3), 1201-1214. Tulunay E., Y. Tulunay, E.T. Senalp, Lj.R. Cander (2004b), Forecasting GPS TEC Using the Neural Network Technique “A Further Demonstration”, Bulgarian Geophysical Journal, 30(1-4), 53-61. Tulunay E., E.T. Senalp, S.M. Radicella, Y. Tulunay (2006), Forecasting Total Electron Content Maps by Neural Network Technique, Radio Sci., 41(4), RS4016. Tulunay Y., E. Tulunay, and E.T. Senalp (2001), An Attempt to Model the Influence of the Trough on HF Communication by Using Neural Network, Radio Sci.,36(5), 1027-1041. Tulunay Y., E. Tulunay, and E.T. Senalp (2004a), The Neural Network Technique-1: A General Exposition, Adv. Space Res., 33(6), 983-987. Tulunay Y., E. Tulunay, and E.T. Senalp (2004b), The Neural Network Technique-2: An Ionospheric Example Illustrating its Application, Adv. Space Res., 33(6), 988-992. Tulunay Y., E. Altuntas, E. Tulunay, C. Price, T. Ciloglu, Y. Bahadirlar, E.T. Senalp (2008a), A Case Study on the ELF Characterization of the Earth-Ionosphere Cavity: Forecasting the Schumann Resonance Intensities, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 70, 669-674. Tulunay Y., E.T. Şenalp, Ş. Öz, L.I. Dorman, E. Tulunay, S.S. Menteş and M.E. Akcan, A Fuzzy Neural Network Model to Forecast the Percent Cloud Coverage and Cloud Top Temperature Maps (2008b), Annales Geophysicae, 26(12), 3945-3954. Tulunay E. et al., An Attempt for Forecasting of Solar Flare Index During Solar Maximum UN/ESA/NASA/JAXA Workshop on Basic Space Science and the International Heliophysical Year 2007 21-25 September 2009, Daejeon, Republic of Korea

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