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Local Analysis and Prediction System ( LAPS ) Update

Local Analysis and Prediction System ( LAPS ) Update. Steve Albers, Dan Birkenheuer, Isidora Jankov, Paula McCaslin Paul Schultz, Ed Szoke, Zoltan Toth, Yuanfu Xie, Linda Wharton NCAR ESRL Meeting March 31, 2011. LAPS Niche.

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Local Analysis and Prediction System ( LAPS ) Update

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  1. Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) Update Steve Albers, Dan Birkenheuer, Isidora Jankov, Paula McCaslin Paul Schultz, Ed Szoke, Zoltan Toth, Yuanfu Xie, Linda Wharton NCAR ESRL Meeting March 31, 2011

  2. LAPS Niche • Highly Portable System, Easy to Use – Many Collaborators/users World Wide • Federal/State Gov’t, International, Academia, Private Sector • NWS/AWIPS, GTAS, FAA/COSPA, RSA, PADS, CWB Taiwan • Wide variety • of data sources: • High Resolution (500m – 20km), Rapid Update (10-60min), Local to Global: • 1km analysis, 15min frequency, 25-30 minute latency • Versus 60min frequency / ~60-90min latency for other hi-res analysis systems (e.g. RTMA) 2

  3. LAPS TEAM • Data assimilation • Steve Albers, Yuanfu Xie • Satellite and other observations • Dan Birkenheuer, Seth Gutman, Kirk Holub, Tomoko Koyama • Physical processes • Paul Schultz • Ensemble forecasting • Isidora Jankov • Evaluation and verification • Ed Tollerud, Ed Szoke • Software engineering • Linda Wharton, Paula McCaslin • Technical support • Adrienne Rose, Joanne Krumel, Stanislav Stoichev • Former colleagues • John McGinley, Huiling Yuan, Brad Beechler, Brent Shaw, etc • Long list of collaborators, visitors, etc

  4. LAPS DA-Ensemble System Data Data Ingest Intermediate data files Error Covariance Trans Traditional GSI Analysis Scheme STMAS3D Trans Post proc1 Post proc2 Post proc3 Model prep WRF-ARW MM5 WRF-NMM Probabilistic Post Processing Ensemble Forecast OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 4

  5. Wind Analysis using Doppler radial velocities Doppler Wind Obs

  6. Wind Analysis Flow Chart

  7. LAPS Cloud analysis C&V / Icing METAR METAR METAR OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 7

  8. FH FL LAPS HOT START INITIALIZATION Three-Dimensional Cloud Analysis METAR + FIRST GUESS

  9. Satellite use in LAPS (GOES / SEVIRI*) • 11 micron IR • 3.9 micron data • Visible (with terrain albedo database) • CO2-Slicing method (Cloud-top pressure) • *2010 Paper with Italian Collaborators • Cloud-Drift Winds • Retrieved Soundings (T, Td) Cloud Analysis OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 9

  10. Cloud Analysis Flow Chart Cloud Fraction 3-D Isosurface

  11. Cloud / Reflectivity / Precip Type (1km analysis) Obstructions to visibility along approach paths DIA

  12. Vertical motion and Hot-Start LAPS hot-start scheme Dramatically improves Very short-range forecast, Importance to terminal Scale forecasts The hot-start scheme will be adapted into STMAS, a multi-grid variational data assimilation system with satellite, radar, conventional obs and model dynamic constraint applied simultaneously.

  13. Analyzed Cloud Liquid vs WISP Aircraft measurements Envelope Indicates Good POD Scatter (FAR) due to unresolved small-scale LWC variability, otherwise good analysis of icing potential OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 13

  14. Cloud / Reflectivity / Precip Type (1km analysis) DIA

  15. Global Solar Radiation Analysis + Observations ARL / FRD OK Mesonet

  16. Downward Solar Radiation Forecast vs. Observations

  17. Cloud Cover Analysis Matching 1-3 hour solar radiation forecast

  18. 6-hr Diabatically (LAPS) initialized WRF-ARW forecast Analysis 13 June 2002 OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 18

  19. 850 mb Analyzed and Simulated Reflectivity Analysis 2hr HOT Fcst 2hr NO-HOT Fcst 16 June 2002

  20. HMT Analysis / Ensemble Initialization

  21. LAPS 1km Grid Spacing 15 min. Wind Analysis with Observations and the Terrain included

  22. LAPS 1km Grid Spacing 15 min. Fire Weather Index and Wind Analysis

  23. Future DA Development - 1 • Higher Resolution Space / Time • 2km – 5 to 15min national analysis for FAA/COSPA • 1km or less for AWIPS-II WFO domain • 20-50 meter analysis for fire weather • Initialize WRF at high resolution for WFO domain • Develop forward models for all data sources being used to more fully implement a 4DVAR approach in STMAS • Incorporate clouds/precipitation variationally into STMAS • subsequently feed into GSI • Dynamical Downscaling • consider hi-res terrain dependent flow in variational cost function • Use ensemble covariances in STMAS • Share methodologies between LAPS / STMAS / HRRR OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 23

  24. STMAS 2km CONUS 15-min update OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 24

  25. STMAS 2km vs. Satellite IRat 14 Sep 2010 0200-0300 UTC

  26. Future DA Development - 2 • Implement LAPS in AWIPS-II, transitioning to STMAS • STMAS options presently built into LAPS software • 2-D STMAS surface • 3-D STMAS state variables + traditional LAPS cloud analysis • Consider new data sources (e.g. GPS, radiometer, Level-II radar) • Some are available in “full” LAPS, so can be included for AWIPS as well • Acquire global geostationary & polar orbiter satellite radiances / imager data • Improve quality control (in LAPS/STMAS and upstream in MADIS) • More efficient net enabled data access (e.g. NNEW) • Full dynamic constraints in STMAS toward a multigrid 4DVAR analysis system with WRF adjoint system. OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch 26

  27. Thanks! • More info at: http://laps.noaa.gov • Questions / Comments? OAR/ESRL/GSD/Forecast Applications Branch

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