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SAAPS Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System

SAAPS Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System. ESA Contract 11974/96/NL/JG(SC) Two year project (April 1999 – June 2001). Peter Wintoft, Lars Eliasson, and Henrik Lundstedt Swedish Institute of Space Physics. SDA Objectives. Create database with relevant data:

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SAAPS Spacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System

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  1. SAAPSSpacecraft Anomaly Analysis and Prediction System ESA Contract 11974/96/NL/JG(SC)Two year project (April 1999 – June 2001) Peter Wintoft, Lars Eliasson, and Henrik Lundstedt Swedish Institute of Space Physics ESWW – SAAPS

  2. SDA Objectives • Create database with relevant data: • Geomagnetic indices (Dst, Kp), • Energetic particles (GOES MeV electron flux), • Solar wind plasma and magnetic field, • Spacecraft anomalies. • Real-time update of database. • Tools for post-analysis: • Plotting, • Statistics (Superposed Epoch Analysis, Correlation,…), • User tailored prediction model. • Tools for forecasting: • Internal charging events at geostationary orbit, • Surface charging events at geostationary orbit. ESWW – SAAPS

  3. User needs • Spacecraft engineers • Access to as many as possible geomagnetic and space particle data for mainly post-event analysis. • Spacecraft operators • Access to key and easy to check relevant geomagnetic and particle data mainly for forecast but also post-analysis. • Web based access. • Real-time operation. ESWW – SAAPS

  4. User satisfaction • SAAPS has been tested by users at ESRANGE and at ESA. • The service was considered as overall good in meeting user requirements. • The database and post-event analysis facilities were considered as very appropriate tools for checking rapidly the possible environmental cause of effects. • The service was found without any other equivalent elsewhere. • Some users complained on problems encountered with firewall blocking some functionalities using the Java Remote Invocation Methods. • Current database is not easily maintained. • One user estimated that using SAAPS for post-event analysis can save a couple of man days of work per analysis compared to existing services (e.g., NOAA-SEC). ESWW – SAAPS

  5. Sustainability of the service • Software is implemented on a server that • downloads real-time data and store in database, • operates a dynamic web service (using Java and RMI). • Depends on • reliable internet connection, • real-time ACE and GOES data. • Requires approx. 200 man hours per year (~20 k€/y) to ensure continuous operation of server. • An upgrade of the software <1 man month. ESWW – SAAPS

  6. Improvement of service • At the time of development (1999-2001) an in-house database was developed. Should be updated using a professional database server. • Service developed for GEO s/c. LEO s/c should also be included. • The forecast models operate on daily average data. Could be refined using higher temporal resolution and including local time effects. • Work in close collaboration with one (or a few) specific s/c operators. Possibly best achieved in private enterprise. ESWW – SAAPS

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