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John Carnochan OBE QPM FFPH

20 th Century Solutions to 21 st Century Problems? 1 st November 2013. John Carnochan OBE QPM FFPH. “ Gentlemen, we have run out of money – now we have to think. ” Winston Churchill. A mouse trap?. OR. Free cheese and a challenge?. The Context.

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John Carnochan OBE QPM FFPH

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  1. 20th Century Solutions to 21st Century Problems? 1st November 2013 John Carnochan OBE QPM FFPH

  2. “Gentlemen, we have run out of money – now we have to think.” Winston Churchill

  3. A mouse trap? OR Free cheese and a challenge?

  4. The Context

  5. “The challenges we face converge, intertwine and often remain largely beyond our understanding. Most of us suspect that the “experts” don’t really know what’s going on and that as a species we’ve released forces that are neither managed nor manageable.” Thomas Homer-Dixon (Paper by Prof Phil Hanlon University of Glasgow 2009

  6. Violence Prevention is a Shared Agendaand we must respond together with Science and Compassion.

  7. The Context

  8. WICKED PROBLEMS

  9. Wicked Problem Rittel & Webber 1973 • No clear definition of a wicked problem • We can make wicked problems better or worse • It’s not clear when wicked problems are fixed • Every attempt to fix a wicked problem will changeit • The planner has no right to be wrong

  10. The WHAT • “Interpersonal violence – violence between individuals in families and communities – is a Public Health problem.” • Etienne Krug • Director • Department of Injuries and Violence Prevention • World health Organisation • 2004

  11. Early Death Disease, Disability and Social Problems Adoption of Health-risk Behaviors Social, Emotional, & Cognitive Impairment Adverse Childhood Experiences Toxic Stress Consequences: long-term Death ACEs are fundamental risk factors for disease and early death Conception

  12. What do Employers Want ? Planning and organising Customer handling Problem solving Team working Oral communication Other technical and practical skills Written communication Basic computer literacy / using IT Strategic management Advanced IT or software Using numbers Literacy 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Percentage of Employers reporting an employee skill gap Future Skills Bar Chart. See Future Skills Scotland Website, Employer Survey 2004, p27, fig 15.

  13. Sense of Coherence • Your world is structured, predictable and explicable • You have the internal resources to meet the demands • The demands are seen as challenges worthy of investment and engagement • Sir Harry Burns • CMO 2011 • (Aaron Antonovsky)

  14. Violence – Contagious Process? • Clustering • Epidemic Wave • Transmission • Gary Slutkin • Cure Violence

  15. Clustering?

  16. Shared Agenda Thanks to Gary Slutkin for the slide Percentage of pupils performing well or very well at relevant level by deprivation.

  17. Thanks to Gary Slutkin for thisslide

  18. Purpose Government Economic Strategy National Outcomes NATIONAL PERFORMANCE SOAs LIFE JOURNEY birth 18 10 16 Valuing our Young People Early Years Framework More Choices More Chances Curriculum for Excellence GIRFEC Promoting Positive Outcomes (ASB) YJ Framework NATIONAL POLICIES Road to Recovery (Drugs) Alcohol framework Equally Well (Health Inequalities) Achieving our Potential (Poverty)

  19. Redemption An old idea that still works

  20. Everyone can change

  21. “We cannot live only for ourselves. A thousand fibers connect us with our fellow men; and among those fibers, as sympathetic threads, our actions run as causes, and they come back to us as effects.” Herman Melville

  22. “An infinitely large number of infinitesimally small actions” Leo Tolstoy

  23. Thanks to Gary Slutkin for the slide

  24. Join us… On the web:www.actiononviolence.org.uk On Twitter: @johncarnochan On Facebook: look for “vruscotland”

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