Coming together or coming apart? America and the 2012 election

1. Coming together or coming apart?America and the 2012 election John Mark Hansen March 2012

2. Vote on Affordable Care Act, 2010

3. The debt-ceiling crisis, 2011

4. Exodus of the moderates Senator Olympia Snowe (R-Me.), 2012 "It's a reflection of the political dynamic in America, where we don't look at America as a whole. We look at it through the red and blue prism. [We have a] Senate and an overall process that lends itself to dysfunction and political paralysis that doesn't allow problems to be solved." Senator Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), 2010 "There is too much partisanship and not enough progress -- too much narrow ideology and not enough practical problem-solving. Even at a time of enormous challenge, the peoples' business is not being done."

5. Polarization in U.S. government

6. Structure of U.S. government President of the United States 435 United States Representatives 100 United States Senators

7. Support for the President’s policies by party

8. Ideology by party in the House, 1967

9. Ideology by party in the House, 1967 & 2007

10. Polarization in the U.S. electorate

11. Ideology in the U.S. electorate (ANES)

12. Ideology in the U.S. electorate by party

13. Ideology in the U.S. electorate by party (ANES)

14. Public approval of the President’s job performance by party (Gallup) Democrats Republicans

15. Polarization and elections

16. The Election Fundamentals • Presidential performance • Condition of the economy • Condition of foreign affairs • Incumbency • Baseline partisanship of the electorate • Positioning of the candidates on the issues

17. Obama’s challengesBaseline partisanship of the electorate (ANES)

18. Obama’s challengesPositioning of candidates on the issues (ANES)

19. Obama’s challengesApproval of job performance

20. Obama’s challenges and advantagesCondition of the economy

21. Obama’s advantagesCondition of foreign affairs • At peace • Withdrawal from Iraq • Withdrawal from Afghanistan • Successful operations • Osama bin Laden • Libya • Egypt

22. Obama’s advantagesIncumbency Incumbent Winners Incumbent Losers • George W. Bush • Bill Clinton • Ronald Reagan • Richard M Nixon • Lyndon B Johnson • Dwight Eisenhower • Harry S Truman • Franklin D Roosevelt • George H W Bush • Jimmy Carter • Gerald Ford 10 successes in 13 attempts (77 percent)

23. Congress: Senate Class I Senators • Elected in 2006 or special elections since Partisan composition • 21 Democrats (6 retiring) • 10 Republicans (3 retiring) • 2 Independents (1 retiring)

24. Congress: House of Representatives

25. And then what?

26. If a Republican wins … • Continued polarization • Less urgency for debt reduction and spending cuts • Tit for tat: No incentive for congressional Democrats to cooperate • Strains on the Republican electoral coalition

27. Partisanship of electorate by birth cohort

28. If Obama wins … • Continued polarization • No “mandate” • Fewer incentives for sabotage • Shared responsibility • Necessity: The double witching hour

29. Federal budget timeline

30. Impact of sequestrations under Budget Control Act of 2011 (New York Times 22 July 2011)

31. Coming together – in spite of ourselves

32. Coming together or coming apart?America and the 2012 election John Mark Hansen March 2012

33. 2008 and 2010 elections in historical context

34. Support for the President’s policies by party

35. Party Unity votes in Congress

36. Relation of congressional and presidential voting

37. Obama’s challenges and advantagesPerception of candidates’ positions on the issues Probability of vote margin (Silver)

38. Latino vote for Democratic and Republican nominees, 1972 – 2008

39. State partisanship and net benefit from government