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Agenda. Market OverviewProposed Tax Fairness PlanOil
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2. Agenda Market Overview
Proposed Tax Fairness Plan
Oil & Gas Trusts
Business Trusts
REITs
Conclusions
3. Approximately 260 income trusts value of $200 billion
Strong growth fuelled by:
Investor looking for stable investment following tech bubble
Aging demographic requiring yield
Part of S&P/TSX Income Trust Index
2006 weaker than last year:
Introduction of taxes in 2011
Softening of commodity prices
Lower funds flow
5. What is an Income Trust? However, these are not fixed income vehicles:
No fixed coupon dates
No known maturity date
No guarantee of principal
Treat Them Like Equities
Same exposure to downside risk as equities
We view them as “high-yielding” equities
Voting rights are essentially the same
6. Proposed Tax Fairness Plan Plan Objectives
Shift the tax burden from individuals to corporations
Stop tax leakage at federal and provincial level
Remove income trusts’ tax advantage
Stop income trust conversions
Levelling the playing field
Corporate tax for existing income trust beginning in 2011
Trusts created after October 2006 will be subject to tax starting in 2007
Capture taxes from tax-exempt investors and from foreign investors
7. Proposed Tax Fairness Plan Direct Benefits for Individuals
Income splitting for all pension plans effective in 2007
Increase in Age Credit of $1,000 effective for 2006
Value of approximately $150/year
Reduction in general corporate income tax rate
by 0.5% to 31.5% starting in 2011
8. Tax Rates by Type of Investor
9. Impact on Distributable Cash Flow Lower distributable cash flow
Net after-tax distributions for taxable investors are unchanged
Lower dividend rate equalized for new trust tax
Distributions are likely to be cut in 2011
10. Proposed Tax Fairness Plan Potential Obstacles
Vote in House of Commons
Conservatives have 40% of seats.
However, the NDP and the Bloc are rumoured to be supportive
Government succumbs to lobbying
Coalition of Canadian Energy Trusts
Lobbying to exempt oil & gas trusts from proposed tax plan
Canadian Association of Income Trusts were successful in past
Foreign ownership limits rule
Pension fund holding limits
Most analyst believe the proposal will be successful
11. Present Value of Tax Holiday RBC CM expects pullback of 20% to 25%
Consider trusts has corporations with a 4-year tax holiday
The Bloq has been rumoured to be pushing for a 10-year tax holiday. On a present value basis, this would imply a pullback of approximately 13%
12. Impact on Valuations Negative for trust valuations
Funds flow will diminish
Difficult to raise capital
Foreign investors
Uncertainty
Positive for trust valuations
Lack of substitute product
Trusts who currently pay corporate taxes
Tax shields
Tax loss carry forwards
Undepreciated capital cost allowance
13. Which Trusts Will Be Impacted Most Negatively High payout ratios
In general, anything in excess of 90% can be considered too high
High debt levels
Reduces financial flexibility and added expense of interest cost
Growth dependent on acquisitions
Reduced access to capital markets
Lower valuation may hinder ability to make acquisitions,
a competitive environment when trying to acquire quality assets
14. Income Trusts Convert To Corporate Structures Not likely prior to 2011
Still more tax efficient in a trust
Cost of converting can be avoided or delayed
Why convert to a corporation?
To complete strategic acquisitions
not clear if small tuck-in acquisitions will be allowed
The Proposed Tax Fairness Plan may limit transactions which will allow companies to circumvent the policy objectives
Oil & gas trusts may have tax incentive to convert to corporation
Lower provincial tax rate could reduce corporate tax to 28.5%
15. REITs – Most Are Expected to be Exempt Most REITs not impacted
Rent collecting entities are not expected to be affected
Some types of REITs may be affected
Operational type REITs could be at risk
Hotel, long-term care and retirement REITs
Foreign-focused REITs could also be at risk
If impacted, there there may be restructuring initiatives that would allow them to be exempt
NAVs should serve as a good, long-term value “back-stop”
16. Income Trust Index
17. Oil Prices A return to $50 oil cannot be ruled out in the near term
18. Oil Prices – Futures Strip Falling
19. US Crude Inventories Robust
20. Natural Gas
21. Natural Gas Inventories – Storage Crunch Natural gas inventories are closing in on an all time record
22. Impact of Oil and Natural Gas Prices
23. Impact of Oil and Natural Gas Prices
24. Net Asset Value and why it matters NAV analysis - apples to apples comparison
makes more sense than applying a simple earnings or cash flow multiple to arrive at a target price
NAV Basic Calculation:
Assets: Present value of each year of future production (using a commodity forecast) + value of reserves
Less: Debt + Hedging Costs
= Net Asset Value
Ability to grow NAV is crucial
25. Net Asset Value Trusts Trade at a premium
Mature properties
Less opportunity to grow NAV
26. Cash Flow Valuations Trusts Trade at a premium
Senior and Junior E&Ps pay taxes
Senior E&Ps have longer life assets
27. Valuation per flowing barrel Trusts Trade at a premium
Senior and Junior E&Ps pay taxes
Senior E&Ps have longer life assets
28. Impact of Tax Fairness Plan
29. Stability of Distributions
30. Oil & Gas Trusts Modest underweight exposure to the energy sector
Wait for a pull back before investing in large cap income trusts
Look at E&P companies for commodity exposure
Encana (ECA), Husky (HSE) and Petro Canada (PCA) - trading at lower P/NAV premium and oil sands assets do not appear to be fully valued
Portfolios that are overweight royalty trusts should consider reducing exposures.
So far only natural gas weighted trusts have reduced distributions, however, the possibility of lower natural gas and oil prices could result in more distribution cuts and lower unit prices.
31. Oil & Gas Trusts Royalty trusts continue to be more expensive
Large US investor base still evaluating proposal
Unit prices likely to decline
Distribution levels are not sustainable under the proposed tax system
Fully loaded payout ratios expected to be 108% for 2007
Means trusts need to issue debt or capital to fund distributions and capex
Some royalty trusts may eventually trade at a discount to the corporate peer group
32. Business Trust Overview Opportunity or Mirage – no near term catalyst
Lack of new funds
Index inclusion is finished
33. Business Trust Overview Lower valuations will make it hard for some business trusts to complete acquisitions or grow cash flows.
Retain cash to fund growth projects
Could also issue high-yield debt
Are some of these lower valued income trusts worth buying?
Some small cap business trusts are starting to trade at attractive multiples…but investors should be careful
Trust P/AFFO Yield
Somerset 3.1x 27.0%
TerraVest 5.0x 22.0%
Cargojet 5.9x 13.8%
Resolve 6.1x 14.3%
36. REITS Summit acquisition will free up $2.1 billion
8% of REITs market cap
Other potential take-over candidates
Alexis Nihon – already announced takeout
CREIT (high quality and no large ownership block)
IPC REIT (motivated inside sellers)
Relatively cheap REITs
Morguard REIT
Other Industrial exposure
Dundee REIT
37. Trusts with a higher risk of cutting distributions
Geared for income-oriented investors
Payout Ratio
Mitigation Factors
Challenging Business Environment
Not a valuation call
Not exhaustive list
No Oil & Gas Trusts
stick to proven trusts
38. Avoid trusts that Suspended Distributions
Improving – Continue to Monitor
High Payout Ratio with Growth Strategy
High Payout Ratio
Challenging Business Environment
Seasonal – Cyclical
39. Conclusions Continue to hold income trusts
As part of diversified equity portfolio
Provide investors with yield
Stick to high quality trusts
Larger market cap
Lower payout ratio and leverage
Uncertainty will cause volatility
Unit prices expected to continue to decline
Too many bargain hunters in market
Look for buying opportunities to establish positions
Reduce unwanted positions on strong days
40. Required Disclosures
Explanation of RBC Capital Markets Rating System
An analyst's "sector" is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst's view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst's sector.
Ratings:
Top Pick (TP): Represents best in Outperform category; analyst's best ideas; expected to significantly outperform the sector over 12 months; provides best risk-reward ratio; approximately 10% of analyst's recommendations.
Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over 12 months.
Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months.
Risk Qualifiers (any of the following criteria may be present):
Average Risk (Avg): Volatility and risk expected to be comparable to sector; average revenue and earnings predictability; no significant cash flow/financing concerns over coming 12-24 months; fairly liquid.
Above Average Risk (AA): Volatility and risk expected to be above sector; below average revenue and earnings predictability; may not be suitable for a significant class of individual equity investors; may have negative cash flow; low market cap or float.
Speculative (Spec): Risk consistent with venture capital; low public float; potential balance sheet concerns; risk of being delisted.
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