Lani Clough: Article Presentation MEAS 593

1. TECHNOLOGY TO UNDERSTAND AND MANAGE CLIMATE RISKS Background Paper for the UNFCCC Seminar on the Development and Transfer of Environmentally Sound Technologies for Adaptation to Climate Change, Tobago, 14–16 June 2005 Richard J.T. Klein, William W. Dougherty, Mozaharul Alam4 & AtiqA. Rahman Lani Clough: Article Presentation MEAS 593

2. About the Article • Finalized in 2005 • One article in a series in a series of publications on technologies for adaptation by the UNFCCC process. • Very dense! • Technology is dominated by two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage, and those who manage what they do not understand. — Archibald Putt, 1976

3. Article Overview • Describes & provides examples of the Four steps of climate-related uses of technology: • Develop information and raise awareness • To plan and design adaptation strategies • Implement adaptation strategies • Monitor and evaluate their performance • Presents existing frameworks to transfer of technologies for adaptation

4. Definitions of Terms Used • Adaptation (?) • “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” • Adaptive Capacity (?) • “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with consequences” • Environmentally Sound Technologies (?) • “Technologies that protect the environment, are less polluting, use all resources in a more sustainable manner, recycle more of their wastes and products, and handle residual wastes in a more acceptable manner than the technologies for which they substitute, and are more compatible with nationally determined socio-economic, cultural and environmental priorities.”

5. Background on Climate Change (cont.) • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report • Magnitude of climate change impacts dependent on: • Demographic pressures (?) • Population growth • Rural-urban migration patterns • Socio-economic pressures (?) • Globalization • Changing prices of natural resources and energy • Impacts will be disproportionally experienced by the poorest groups • Ethnic tribes • Nomadic groups • Fisher folk • Livestock herders

6. UNFCCC: Article 4.1b: Mitigation and Adaptation • Two options to reduce climate change: • Mitigation (?) • Reducing and enhancing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing sinks • Adaptation • “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities”

7. Mitigation and Adaptation • Warming now is the result of past greenhouse gas emissions • Do we need to focus on mitigation or adaptation (?) • Adaptation is necessary • Mitigation is crucial to reduce the magnitude of climate change • Both adaptation AND mitigation are required!!!!

8. Mitigation • Policy was primarily focused on mitigation rather than adaptation • Concern stronger focus on adaptation would weaken society’s interest in mitigation • Natural selection and market forces would bring adaptation without policy intervention

9. Adaptation • Examples: • Increasing the ability of physical infrastructure to withstand climate change • Extend temperature or rainfall ranges • Modify a system’s tolerance to loss or failure • Improving public awareness and preparedness • Setting up early warning systems • Educating the public about risks and consequences

10. Types of Adaptations • Temporal definitions • Reactive- post • Anticipatory- pre • Systemic definition • Natural- reactive • Human- anticipatory & reactive • Public interests (governments) • Private interests (commercial companies and private households)

11. Types of Adaptations (cont)

12. Types of Adaptations (cont.) • Planned Vs Autonomous adaptation • Planned: decisions based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to and an action is required • Sea wall • Irrigation system • Autonomous: changes that are undergone in response to changes in the immediate environment irregardless of policies • Changes in farming practices • Air conditioner purchases • Insurance policies • Most actions taken by individuals, communities and companies will be (?) • Autonomous, as natural changes were adapted to in the past

13. Four Steps of Adaptation Implementation • Four steps: • Information development and awareness raising • Planning and design • Implementation • Monitoring and evaluation

14. Four Steps of Adaptation Implementation (cont.) • Simplified, planned, autonomous adaptation • Ongoing, reiterative action required

15. Adaptive Capacity • Definition (?) • “The ability of a system to adjust to climate change to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with consequences” • Factors that influence adaptive capacity: • Economic wealth • Technology • Infrastructure • Information, knowledge and skills within the country • Nature of its institutions • Commitment to equity and social capital

16. Adaptive Capacity (cont.) • Do developing or industrialized countries tend to have more adaptive capacity? Why (?) • Example: • Bangladesh vs. the Netherlands • Similar susceptibility to sea-level rise • Bangladesh lacks the economic resources, technology and infrastructure compared to the Netherlands • Having adaptive capacity doesn’t mean it will be used successfully

17. Technologies for Adaptation to Climate Change • Definition from article: “all technologies that can be applied in the process of adaptation”. • Hard and soft technologies • Hard (?) • Drought-resistant seeds • Sea-walls • Irrigation • Soft (?) • Insurance schemes • Crop rotation patterns • Set-back zones • Information & knowledge

18. Technologies for Adaptation to Climate Change • What technologies are better for a successful adaptation strategy- hard or soft, why (?) • Successful strategy will combine both • Example: Bangladesh early flood warning system • Hard technology: • Measuring devices • Information technology • Soft • Knowledge and skills to strengthen awareness and promote appropriate actions

19. Information Development and Awareness Raising • Data collection and information development are essential to identify adaptation needs and priorities • The more relevant the data available, the more targeted and effective adaptation strategies can be

21. Planning & Design • If action should be taken, next step is to decide on the appropriate action • Always be uncertainty • Future is uncertain • Incomplete knowledge of nature and socio-economic processes • Decision tools to help with uncertainty • Cost-Benefit Analysis • Cost-effectiveness analysis • Multi-criteria analysis (best when values can’t be expressed monetarily) • Semazzi-Mera?

22. Planning & Design (cont.) • GIS • Assist policy-makers in identifying (dependent on their selected criteria): • Appropriate technologies for adaptation • Optimal locations • Modeling of potential futures: • Scenarios • Identify and remember the model’s limitations • What else must be included/considered besides technology (?) • Stakeholders must be involved

23. UNDP’s Adaptation Policy Framework • Developed to help in resolving issues in planning and designing adaptation strategies • 4 major principals • Adaptation (1-3) • Short-term climate variability and extreme events can reduce vulnerability from long-term climate change • Assessed within a developmental context • Occurs at many societal levels • 4: The strategy and processes of adaptation activities are important

24. UNDP’s Adaptation Policy Framework (cont.) • Consists of 5 steps linked to 2 important cross-cutting issues

25. UNDP: Technology Needs Assessment • Prioritize technologies, practices and reforms implemented in varying sectors to adapt to climate change • Technology needs assessment needs six essential activities: • Preparation of an initial list of options • Development of criteria for assessment • Prioritization of key sectors • Identification of barriers • Selection of options • Preparation of a synthesis report

26. UNDP: Technology Needs Assessment (cont.) • Additional steps include identifying vulnerable sectors • TNA overlaps with the APF in two ways (?): • TNA essential activities fit under the information awareness planning/design phase • APF policy criteria and development objectives in the planning/design activities can be obtained from completing the TNA adaptation process steps

27. APF and TNA overlap

28. Frameworks for facilitating the Transfer of Technologies for Adaptation • Multi-lateral environmental agreements (MEAs) • Linked with multi-lateral agencies with clear development goals (e.g. the UNDP, WB)

29. Article Conclusions • Technology is not a panacea- adaptation needs more than just technology • Adaptation is an iterative , ongoing process requiring stakeholder involvement and technology • Reducing vulnerability requires technology AND mechanisms, expertise and other resources required to make the technology sustainable • Adaptation should include both hard and soft technologies • The range and dimensions of technologies for adaptation that can be considered is very large • The transfer of technologies for adaptations involves multiple stakeholders, variety of perspectives and is extremely interdisciplinary

30. Questions && Discussion