Operational Evaluation and Model Response Comparison of CAMx and CMAQ for Ozone & PM2.5

1. Operational Evaluation and Model Response Comparison of CAMx and CMAQ for Ozone & PM2.5 Kirk Baker, Brian Timin, Sharon Phillips U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC Presented at the 2008 CMAS Conference

2. Operational Evaluation & Response Comparison • Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx4) and the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), treat the physical processes and chemistry that form ozone and PM2.5 • SIPS are submitted using either model • Model performance is typically evaluated on an operational basis; comparing base year predictions to observations • Since the modeled attainment demonstration includes modeling the relative change between current and future year emissions it is important to have confidence that modeling systems will predict ozone and PM2.5 concentrations consistently when emissions change

3. CMAQ v4.6 (aero4) CAMx v4.5 CB05 gas phase chemistry RADM aqueous phase chemistry ISORROPIA inorganic chemistry Variations in secondary organic chemistry between models Base year = 2002 Future year = 2020 12 km sized grid cells 14 vertical layers up to 15 km; 30 m thick first layer Modeling Background

4. Domain Total Emissions (tpd)

5. PM2.5 Bias Metric by Quarter for 2002

6. Annual PM2.5 Model Response • Models are used in a relative sense for regulatory modeling • Relative response factor (RRF) = estimated concentrations in future year / estimated concentrations in base (current) year • RRFs are applied to observed design values to estimate future year design values • RRF*base design value = future design value • RRFs are calculated for each chemical component of PM2.5 • RRFs estimated using the MATS software tool

7. Annual PM2.5 Future Year Design Values and Speciated RRFs

8. Quarterly Nitrate Concentration (left) and RRFs (right)

9. Relationships between CAMx and CMAQ estimated RRF and FYDV by specie

10. Bias of Daily 8-hr Ozone Maximum

11. 8-hr O3 Future Year Design Values and RRFs

12. 8-hr O3 Model Response • Examined future year design values, RRFs, and number of days for RRF calculating by 4 bins of model estimate 8-hr ozone • 85+ • 75 to 85 • 65 to 75 • 55 to 65 • Assess how model response changes based on predicted concentrations

13. 8-hr O3 RRFs by Model Prediction Bin (4 bins) CAMx CMAQ

14. 8-hr O3 RRFs by Model Prediction Bin (4 bins)

15. 8-hr O3 number of days in RRF calc. by Model Prediction Bin (4 bins)

16. 8-hr FYDV, RRF, and days used for 85+ ppb bin

17. Remarks • CMAQ and CAMx modeling systems consistently predict ambient concentrations of 8-hr ozone and PM2.5, which is encouraging since they are used to support modeled attainment demonstrations for NAAQS • The relative response factors and future year design values of 8-hr ozone and annual PM2.5 are very similar using both CAMx and CMAQ even though there are differences in base year model predictions • Larger 8-hr O3 reductions are seen at higher model predicted concentrations • Using a different modeling system should give similar predicted future year design values when inputs and key physics options are consistent

18. Future Work • 24-hr PM2.5 model response • A more thorough dynamic evaluation is needed to determine if these modeling systems appropriately respond to emissions changes

19. END

21. PM2.5 Model Performance CAMx CMAQ