Overview of NOAA’s Arctic Climate Science Activities

1. Overview of NOAA’s Arctic Climate Science Activities Current or Proposed Activities Expected to Persist in FY2008-2012

2. NOAA Arctic Climate Science Activities • Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic • Arctic Change Detection • Arctic Atmospheric Observatories for Clouds, Radiation, Aerosols • Advances in Satellite Applications for Polar Studies • Polar Atmospheric Chemistry for Ozone Depletion and Greenhouse Gases

3. NOAA Arctic Climate Science Activities • Decision Support • Arctic Climate Modeling • Arctic System Reanalysis • Data Management

4. 1. Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic CANADA CHINA, KOREA, JAPAN

5. Automated Drifting Stations Ice Mass Balance buoys

6. 2. Arctic Change Detection http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect/ • Data current in September 2004 • Add additional indicators allowing ACIA analyses to be carried into the future Climate Ice Ecosystem Land

7. 1970 1980 1990 2000 Main Indicators in Arctic Change Detection Website PUBLIC RELEASE: Nov 9, 2004 -- http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect Large Changes in Recent Years are Highlighted in Red • Highest 1/3 • Middle 1/3 • Lowest 1/3

8. Improve climate data sets for Alaska by extending the Climate Reference Network to key Alaskan sites Fairbanks, Alaska CRN Site

9. 3. Arctic Atmospheric Observatories • To understand the Arctic atmosphere it is necessary to have detailed measurements of clouds, aerosols, radiation, water vapor, surface fluxes, as well as surface and upper air temperature, moisture, and wind measurements. • Clouds and aerosols in the Arctic have a major influence on surface radiation budgets and resulting surface temperatures, ice ablation/melt rates, and the onset of the annual snow melt season. • Major components of an Arctic Atmospheric Observatory are active cloud sensors, passive and in-situ aerosol sensors, broadband radiation fluxes (up and down), surface fluxes, spectral radiometry, and rawinsondes.

10. Tiksi, Russia Barrow, Alaska Eureka, Canada Alert, Canada Ny-Alesund, Svalbard Summit, Greenland

11. 4. Advances in Satellite Applications for Polar Studies Objectives: Improve satellite retrieval science and develop new products Validate satellite products using in situ data collected during IPY Improve model assimilation of satellite products to improve forecasts in the high latitudes and globally Conduct retrospective analyses of satellite data to detect climate change Support other projects with satellite products New satellite sounders will provide high vertical resolution of the atmosphere and new spectral information for cloud property retrievals. (Moisture weighting functions shown here) Polar satellite products help reduce forecast busts globally (MODIS polar winds in this case)

12. 5. Polar Atmospheric Chemistry for Ozone Depletion and Greenhouse Gases • NOAA will continue atmospheric monitoring at South Pole and Barrow for greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, and aerosols, along with laboratory and field research into stratospheric change and ozone destruction and recovery. • NOAA will continue its support for cooperative monitoring projects and will welcome IPY scientists.

13. IPY is a unique opportunity to initiate an integrated Climate Regional Decision Support Program integrating monitoring, data services, research, operational servicedelivery, and customer support. 6. Alaska Regional Climate Decision Support • Meet continuing demands for decision support in Alaska through an integrated, multi-disciplinary approach • Expand the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program and Regional Climate Centers Program • Integrate it with the NWS regional climate services program and the Alaska State Climatologist • Collaborate with other Arctic countries to develop broader decision-support efforts and make a lasting contribution to IPY and beyond.

14. 7. IMPROVING CLIMATE MODELS IN THE ARCTIC GFDL SINGLE COLUMN MODEL Improve the physics of GCMs by taking advantage of the rich data to be derived from the Arctic Atmospheric Observatories and satellites Test single column models against the observations and apply knowledge gained to improve GCMs Share integrated dataset with research community FORCING VALIDATION NESDIS TOA IRRADIANCE AND CLOUD RETRIEVALS NCEP NUMERICAL FORECASTS TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY ADVECTION AND WINDS CLOUD PROPERTIES GCM PHYSICS SURFACE RADIATIVE AND TURBULENT FLUXES; PRECIPITATION SURFACE ALBEDO AND TEMPERATURE SURFACE VARIABLES AND ATMOSPHERIC RETRIEVALS ETL: ARCTIC ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATORIES

15. 8. Arctic System Reanalysis • “Reanalysis” provides a physically consistent description of the climate system that can be used to detect change and provide attribution. • No previous effort has focused on the entire Arctic region, nor have the models been formulated to account for uniquely Arctic processes. • ASR will include not only atmospheric data and models, but also attempt to include sea ice and upper ocean to account for the tight coupling between them. • The longer-term goal of the ASR is to evolve to an operational state in which these activities continue indefinitely for climate research and forecasting

16. 9. Data Management Fundamental goal: Securely archive a baseline against which to assess future change. Ensure that Arctic climate data are accessible and preserved for current and future users. NOAA’s National Data Centers also serve as World Data Centers, a legacy of the 1957-1958 IGY. They and other global WDCs represent an existing infrastructure to build upon to meet IPY data management objectives. • Ensure that IPY projects follow IPY Data Committee guidelines. Make compliance simple. Offer tools, tutorials. • Ensure that standards such as the Open Archival Information System (OAIS) Reference Model and the ISO19115 metadata standard are met • Serve as clearinghouse and facilitator for data management issues.