Extremes Scenarios for Adaptation Research

1. Extremes Scenarios for Adaptation Research Eric Taylor National Coordinator Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa Eric.Taylor@NRCan.gc.ca (613) 992-0644

2. Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network The 14 National, Regional and Sectoral C-CIARN Coordinating Offices are: • Building a network of researchers and stakeholders involved in climate change impacts and adaptation • Facilitating research through workshops and information exchange • Helping to provide voice and visibility to the impacts and adaptation issue.

3. National Projects Agriculture  n Water (x 1) Coastal $ Economic (x 2) Communities n Agriculture (x 2) Integrated Assess. n Forestry (x 1) Energy/Industry Forestry Fisheries  Hazards  Health P Permafrost Terrestrial  Water Sea Ice  Tourism C-CIARN is a partner to the Impacts and Adaptation Research Program 135 projects completed or underway 20 additional projects planned P P   P              www.adaptation.NRCan.gc.ca

4. Framework for Adaptation Stakeholders Current Extremes Future Extremes Draft Adaptation Policy Framework developed at a joint UNFCCC/UNDP workshop in Canada, June 2001

5. Example of framework approach The project: Emergency management in communities and climate change. A requirement to adapt to climate extremes in Ontario and Québec. Assess current vulnerability: Quantify the historical community threat from climate extremes using "milestone" disastrous events from history. Communities do not have this info now. Characterize future conditions. Extremes scenarios: What changes in frequency of these extremes are possible. Need to better predict future extremes in relation to past extremes. Source: Leanne Bellisario, OCIPEP

6. Challenges for impacts and adaptation researchers • The lack of “extremes scenarios” available at suitable spatial and temporal scales. • Dealing with the high degree of uncertainty in the modelled data; especially since climate models are often just one of many models (economic, development, social) used in I&A assessments (cascading uncertainties). • Stakeholders needed to define the temporal and spatial scales of extremes scenarios that are required.

7. Research Needs • Climate analysis is needed to establish basic relationships between historical climate and extremes. • Strengthen the ability of climate models to explain past extremes and their trends. This would increase the credibility of projections of future extreme events from climate models. (Karl et al., 1999)

8. Two types of Extreme Events • Extremes: Based directly on climate statistics- e.g., extreme daily heat or cold, heavy daily or monthly precipitation, hurricanes, tornadoes, etc. • Event-driven extremes: Events resulting from accumulation over time of meteorological elements. Usually regionally-based. “Event Extremes” could include measures of: • degree-day extremes, winter warmth extremes etc. • hydrological or agricultural drought, soil moisture extremes • groundwater extremes such as depth or recharge rate • extremes of accumulated precipitation, river floods, lake levels • snow depth and glacial melt extremes • Extended periods of heat (combined with high humidity) or cold. • (Adapted from Easterling et al., 2000). Do we have more confidence in predicting “event-driven” extremes?

9. Extremes and Trends Extreme defined narrowly as an exceedance of a human, economic or environmental threshold. Significant adaptation in a short time Upper Extreme 2 Upper Extreme 1 Climate Variable Coping Range Coping Range Lower Extreme Time

10. Three useful extremes scenarios • 1. Frequency of very long, hot and dry summers. • Possible impacts: • Degraded urban air quality • High water demand and low water supply • Temperature-related morbidity increase • Water and food-borne contamination • Damage to agricultural sector and communities in non-irrigated areas (over two or more consecutive years) • Crop insurance cost increases • Slope instability in permafrost areas, including cordillera

11. 2. Frequency of extremely short and/or mild winters. • Possible impacts: • Degraded resource exploration and exploitation in northern areas • Degraded permafrost and related infrastructure • Degraded winter roads • Agriculture and Forest pest infestation (Worse over consecutive mild winters) • Coastal erosion in winter in ice-covered waters

12. 3. Frequency of extremely high total rainfall over an extended period. • Possible Impacts: • Urban and rural flooding • Soil erosion and groundwater contamination in agricultural areas • Slope instability in mountainous areas and unconsolidated sediments.