Adaptation for forests

1. Topic 3, Section C Adaptation for forests

2. Learning outcomes In this presentation, you will learn about the impacts of climate change on natural forests and ecosystem services. You will also learn about adaptation options for natural forests, the impacts of climate change on production forests and tree plantations, and adaptation options for tree plantations and agroforests. Topic 3, Section C, slide 2 of 30

3. The World’s Forests Topic 3, Section C, slide 3 of 30

4. Tropical forest distribution…… Tropical forest distribution with insets from South America, Central Africa and Southeast Asia. The areas in yellow in South America and Southeast Asia are protected areas that are threatened by deforestation. Topic 3, Section C, slide 4 of 40

5. 1. Impacts of climate change on natural forests and ecosystems services • Forests are ecosystems that cover a total of 42 million square kilometres (about 30% of all land) with 42% in the tropics, 25% in the temperate zone, and 33% in the boreal zone • Forests, especially in the boreal region, have high potential vulnerability to climate change in the long term, but may become adversely affected much sooner if disturbances (drought, insects, fire) - partly due to climate change - cross critical thresholds Topic 3, Section C, slide 5 of 40

6. Impacts of climate change on natural forests and ecosystems services • Most Dynamic Global Vegetation simulation models show significant forest dieback towards the end of this century and later in tropical, boreal and mountain areas, resulting in a loss of key ecosystem services • Models suggest losses of diversity, in particular in tropical forest diversity hotspots such as north-eastern Amazonia and tropical Africa Topic 3, Section C, slide 6 of 30

7. Projected change by 2100 IPCC, 2007 Topic 3, Section C, slide 7 of 30

8. Projected change in terrestrial ecosystems by 2100 Topic 3, Section C, slide 8 of 30

9. Potential forest vegetation in the Philippines using Holdridge life zones Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp Legend Rain Forest No Classification Wet Forest Dry Forest Moist Forest Topic 3, Section C, slide 9 of 30

10. Holdridge life zones in the Philippines under Scenario 1 (25% increase in rainfall) and at three levels of temperature increase Life Zone (1a) - precip (25% ) - temp (1C ) Life Zone (1a) - precip (25% ) - temp (1.5C ) Life Zone (1a) - precip (25% ) - temp (2C ) Legend Rain Forest No Classification Wet Forest Dry Forest Moist Forest Topic 3, Section C, slide 10 of 30

11. Productivity gains in some forest types may occur through: • Productivity gains in some forest types may occur through: • CO2 fertilization - although the magnitude of this effect remains uncertain in long-lived systems such as forests. • Warming in cold climates • Increases in rainfall under water-limited conditions • Adverse impacts could result in changes in temperature and rainfall • Impacts are highly uncertain at local levels Topic 3, Section C, slide 11 of 30

12. 2. Adaptation options for natural forests • Natural resource management techniques can be used to increase the resilience of ecosystems • Increasing resilience is consistent with the “ecosystem approach” of the Convention on Biological Diversity • Considering the uncertainty of climate change “no regrets” decisions are preferable Topic 3, Section C, slide 12 of 30

13. Reserve expansion • Can reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change • Consider long-term shifts in plant and animal distributions and natural disturbance regimes • Reduce and manage the other stresses on species and ecosystems Topic 3, Section C, slide 13 of 30

14. 3. Impacts of climate change on production forests and tree plantations • Forests cover almost 4 billion hectares or 30% of the Earth’s land mass • 3.4 billion metres3 of wood were removed in 2004 from forest areas - 60% as industrial roundwood • Intensively managed forest plantations comprised only 4% of the forest area in 2005 • Area for plantations and production is rapidly increasing at 2.5 million hectares annually • In 2000, plantations supplied about 35% of global roundwood. This is expected to increase to 44% by 2020 Topic 3, Section C, slide 14 of 30

15. Projected impacts of climate change on planted forests An increase in global timber production due to climate change is projected • This is due to location changes of forests and higher growth rates, especially with the positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration • Regional production will exhibit large variability • Little information exists about the impacts at the tree farm level Topic 3, Section C, slide 15 of 30

16. The effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere to tree growth • New studies suggest that direct CO2 effects on tree growth may be revised to lower values than previously assumed in forestry models • Most of the major forestry models do not include key ecological processes Topic 3, Section C, slide 16 of 30

17. Examples of simulated climate change impacts on forestry Topic 3, Section C, slide 17 of 30

18. Additional factors Additional factors not included in the models contribute to the uncertainty about the impacts of climate change on forestry, including: • Fire, insects, diseases and extreme weather events are not well modeled • The composition and production of forests are shaped by fire frequency, size, intensity and seasonality Topic 3, Section C, slide 18 of 30

19. Additional factors • Climate change will interact with fuel type, ignition source and topography in determining future damage risks to the forest industry due to fires • Increased temperatures and longer growing seasons will elevate fire risk • Boundaries of insects and pathogens may shift and modify tree physiology and tree defense. Topic 3, Section C, slide 19 of 30

20. 4. Autonomous adaptation strategies Autonomous adaptation strategies are not a conscious response to climatic changes or events, but are triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Examples include changes in: • Management intensity • Hardwood/softwood species mix • Timber growth and harvesting patterns • Rotation periods Topic 3, Section C, slide 20 of 30

21. Examples of autonomous adaptation Topic 3, Section C, slide 21 of 30

22. Examples of autonomous adaptation • Salvaging dead timber • Shifting to species or areas more productive under the new climatic conditions • Landscape planning to minimize fire and insect damage • Adjusting to altered wood size and quality • Adjusting fire management systems Topic 3, Section C, slide 22 of 30

23. Adaptation strategies to control insect damage in planted forests • Prescribed burning to reduce insect outbreaks • Non-chemical insect control, for example by using baculoviruses • Adjusting harvesting schedules • Forests in developing countries receive minimal management; this limits adaptation opportunities to control insect damage Topic 3, Section C, slide 23 of 30

24. Limitations of autonomous adaptation There has been minimal evaluation of how effective and widely adopted autonomous adaptation strategies are. Factors to consider: • The complex nature of farm decision-making • The diversity of responses within and between regions • Difficulties if climate changes are non-linear or increase climate extremes • The interactions between adaptation options and economic, institutional and cultural barriers to change Topic 3, Section C, slide 24 of 30

25. Planned adaptation options • Autonomous adaptations may not be fully adequate • There are several options for planned adaptation. Adaptation can be the result of a deliberate policy decision as conditions have changed or are about to change and action is required • Many options for policy-based adaptation to climate change have been identified for forests Topic 3, Section C, slide 25 of 30

26. Example of planned adaptation • In many developing countries in the tropics, community-based forest management is a national priority policy • Community-based forest management enhances the resilience of natural ecosystems • In the Philippines community-based forest management is the national strategy for forest land management, involving about 6 million hectares and benefiting 690,000 households or 4 million people • This has led to the establishment of 0.5 million hectares of tree and agroforestry farms across the country Topic 3, Section C, slide 26 of 30

27. Summary • Expansion and better management of protected areas will enhance the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change. • Autonomous and planned adaptations ensure wood supply. • An example of planned adaptation is community-based forest management. Topic 3, Section C, slide 27 of 30

28. Exercise Given the bio-physical and socio-economic conditions of a project or programme: • Assess the potential impacts of climate change on natural forests and tree plantations • Determine the most vulnerable forests • Identify potential adaptation options based on current activities and policies Topic 3, Section C, slide 28 of 30

29. References • Easterling, W.E. et al. 2007 Food, fibre and forest products. In: Climate Change 2007 Working Group II Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter5.pdf • Fischlin, A. 2007: Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In: Climate Change 2007 Working Group II Report on Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter4.pdf Topic 3, Section C, slide 29 of 30

30. Thank you for your attention