Processing the language of predicting and forecasting in an Italian corpus of economic reports

1. Processing the language of predicting and forecasting in an Italian corpus of economic reports Maria Teresa Musacchio SSLMIT, University of Trieste

2. Introduction • Extracting predictions and forecasts from an Italian corpus of economic reports • Criteria • Method • Comparison of Italian and English

3. Economics vs other sciences • Observation of phenomena • Formulation of problems • Development of theories and models • Experiments to test theories and models • Centrality of predicting and forecasting in economics

4. Lexicogrammar of predictions • Criteria: epistemic/inferential gradients • Futures • Conditionals • Hedges • Implicit and explicit forms

5. Type of prediction Examples Interpretive or hypothetical prediction = it creates a link between two phenomena: if phenomenon p is observed, then phenomenon q will occur If consumers want more of any good, the price will rise, sending a signal to producers that more supply is needed. (Samuelson & Nordhaus, 2001 : 26) Illustrative or speculative prediction = it creates a simplified model of reality for the sake of clarity. From this relationships are engendered and consequences are drawn. Suppose you own a football club. Before the season begins you have to set the price of football tickets for the season. Your sole aim is to maximize your revenue from ticket sales so you can afford to buy some better players next season. (…) If the quantity demanded is insensitive to the price it will require a very low price to fill the ground and total revenue will collapse. If, however, small reductions in ticket sales lead to large increases in the quantity sold, it makes more sense to charge a price that will fill the ground. (Begg et al., 1997 : 56) Applied or realistic prediction = The past/current situation is analysed and economic models and tools are used to predict or forecast future events. If the experiences of the 1994 bond-market decline are a guide to the future, even a substantial Wall Street correction (…) will have a relatively small effect on the pace of Main Street activity. (Tyson, 1997 : 58) Instrumental prediction = it is used to prove the validity of : a) a proposal b) a warning. a)(…) the economy would be capable of a much better performance if only the Federal reserve and the bond market would relax the interest-rate brakes. (Tyson 1997: 58) b)I hope that by the time this book comes out the European Central Bank will have moved aggressively to cut rates and stimulate growth; if it does not, the liquidity trap could be about to claim another victim. (Krugman, 1999: 162) A classification of predictions with examples (Merlini 1983)

6. Predicting in Italian • Surrey-Trieste corpus (Ahmad 1998) • Italian epistemic modals (potere, dovere) and modal expressions (è possibile/probabile che, etc.) • Inflection

7. Texts Tokens Economic Bulletin of the Bank of Italy No. 32 – February 1999 36,188 Notes to the Economic Bulletin of the Bank of Italy (No. 32 – Feb. 1999) 5,500 Annual Report 1998 of ISTAT – fragment (Ch. 1) 33,354 Annual Report 1998 of the Bank of Italy 77,593 Considerazioni finali ( 31st May 1999) 11,172 Dpef 1999-2001 (22nd April 1998) 8,794 Speeches (December 1998-January 1999) 15,079 Total 187,680

8. Futures and conditionals in Italian • Future: aumentare aumenterà/ aumenteranno / diminuire diminuirà/diminuirà // potrà/ potranno / andrà/andranno *rà/*ranno • Conditional: aumenterebbe/ aumenterebbero / diminuirebbe/ diminuirebbe // dovrebbe / dovrebbero  *rebbe/*rebbero

9. Syntactic structures • S + V [+ O] + A  la domanda crescerà nel secondo trimestre • S [= N+(prep)+N] + V [+ O] + A  si verificherà una crescita della domanda nel secondo trimestre

10. Examples • Italian examples • Comparison with CORIS/CODIS • Comparison with English

14. Discussion • Noise • Verbs • Phrases (collocations) • Patterns (colligations) • Lexicogrammar as an aid to extraction

16. Future work • Reduce noise • Refine extraction • Compile lists