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Hard Times

Hard Times. Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion. Toughest jobs market for a generation. Back in 2010, consensus was return to trend growth. Since then things have got worse – new forecasts are much weaker. And even those may be optimistic!.

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Hard Times

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  1. Hard Times Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion

  2. Toughest jobs market for a generation

  3. Back in 2010, consensus was return to trend growth...

  4. Since then things have got worse – new forecasts are much weaker...

  5. And even those may be optimistic!

  6. Result: 300,000 fewer jobs forecast now than previously for 2011-15

  7. Which means more people on JSA – up to 350,000 more than expected

  8. And while new vacancies have come back up...

  9. More competition means the stock of vacancies is in the doldrums

  10. So: • Hard times • And far tougher than when JCP and Work Programme budgets were set

  11. e.g. Work Programme – starts up 50% for JSA (partially offset by 10% fall for ESA...)

  12. Already seeing this in referrals June to October 2011 – up 20%

  13. Already seeing this in referrals June to October 2011 – up 20%

  14. And will feed through into outcomesIron law: lower growth = fewer jobs

  15. So what does this mean for homeless and vulnerably housed? Threats: • Economy • Public funding • Incentives/ structures • Freedom and flex • Welfare reform ... But opportunities: • Experience • Freedom and flex

  16. Experience Know what good looks like: • Single lead case worker within JCP/ WP • Collaboration with homelessness services • Co-location • Referrals to services • Reciprocal training • Addressing all barriers – esp. mental health, dependency, family breakdown, debt

  17. Freedom and flex • Less prescription in JCP is also an opportunity • Not just a service for when things go wrong • Work Programme “black box”, innovation • Opportunity to engage is right now • More local control – across LA budgets, skills, health, regeneration (but less money overall) • Emerging social finance market – Big Society Capital, Community Budgets

  18. So where go from here? • What’s working? • In local partnerships • With JCP/ Work Programme/ others • How go further? • E.g. building on Homeless Link/ JCP guidance; through Work Programme; in local partnerships • What needs to change?

  19. Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion

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