The Changing Landscape of Higher Education*

1. The Changing Landscape of Higher Education* October 2015 D. Merrill Ewert, Ph.D. Patricia A. Anderson, Ph.D. * An expanded version of this presentation was given at a symposium on the future of Mennonite Education, at Bluffton University on October 18, 2015.

2. Higher Education in the United States

3. Annual investment [in billions] in formal and informal, postsecondary workforce education & training in the U.S. (in 2013 dollars) [Total: $885 billion] Source: Georgetown University Center on Education & the Workforce, College is Just the Beginning, Figure 1, Feb, 2015.

4. Distribution of all enrollments in degree-granting, Title IV-eligible institutions: 2013 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, Digest of Statistics, Table 303.5, July 2015.

5. Percentage of 18 to 24-yearold men and women enrolled in degree-granting institutions: 1972 - 2012 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, Fast Facts; Table 302.60.

6. Percent of high school graduates going directly to college (2 and 4-year institutions): 1975-2013 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, Digest of Educational Statistics, Table 302.10.

7. Employment to population ratios of persons 16 to 64 years old, by age group and highest level of educational attainment: Selected years, 1975 through 2014 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, Digest of Educational Statistics, Table 501.50, September 2015

8. Some challenges facing independent colleges and universities • Rising cost of college • Low graduation and retention rates • Geography and demography • Disconnect: what students & employers want • Institutional vulnerability/sustainability • Rising Discount rate • Underprepared students • Student debt • An uneven playing field

9. 1. Rising Cost of College

10. Average total tuition, fees, room and board rates charged for full-time undergraduate students in degree-granting institutions: 1982–83 to 2012–13 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2015). Digest of Education Statistics, 2013 (NCES 2015-011).

11. 2. Low Graduation and Retention Rates

12. 6-Year graduation rates: entering school, 1996-2007 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, IPEDS Trend Generator, 2015.

13. 3. Geography and demography

14. Profile of U.S. Freshmen, Fall 2014: distance from home to the college they attended Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education: Almanac of Higher Education 2015-16; Vol. LXI, No. 43, p. 32, Aug, 21, 2015.

15. Distribution of public undergraduate enrollments by type of institution in selected states, 2010 Source: Delta Cost Project at American Institutes for Research, www.deltacostproject.org.

16. Total number of students enrolled in postsecondary institutions in selected states, 2010 Source: Delta Cost Project at American Institutes for Research, www.deltacostproject.org.

17. 4. The Disconnect: What Students and Employers Want

18. Profile of U.S. Freshmen, Fall 2014: Reasons students deemed “Very Important” in deciding to attend college Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education: Almanac of Higher Education 2015-16; Vol. LXI, No. 43, p. 51, Aug, 21, 2015.

19. What Employers are Looking for Explanatory note: + Means that employers want colleges to place more emphasis on this concept Source: AAC&U and Hart Research Associates: It Takes More than a Major: Employer Priorities for College Learning and Student Success, 2013

20. 5. Financial Vulnerability and Sustainability of our Institutions

21. CAOs and CFOs agree: higher education is moving in the wrong direction Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education, Managing the Enterprise, Figure 2, Aug, 2015.

22. Degree-granting, postsecondary institutions that have closed their doors: 2000-01 through 2012-13 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, Digest of Educational Statistics, Table 317.50.

23. CAOs and CFOs: their biggest concerns Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education, Managing the Enterprise, Figure 3, Aug, 2015.

24. Sources of grant aid for fulltime undergraduate students, by sector: 2011-12 Source: College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2014, Figure 29B

25. 6. The Rising Discount Rate

26. Average tuition discount ratefor private non-profit colleges: 2003-2014* Source: Data from NACUBO Discount Survey, 2003-14 (*based on preliminary data for 2014), Inside Higher Education, Aug 25, 2015.

27. 7. Under-Prepared Students

28. Profile of U.S. Freshmen, Fall 2014: qualities that students rate themselves as being in “Top 10%” or “Above Average” Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education: Almanac of Higher Education 2015-16; Vol. LXI, No. 43, p. 51, Aug, 21, 2015.

29. Profile of U.S. Freshmen, Fall 2014: time spent studying during typical week as H.S. senior Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education: Almanac of Higher Education 2015-16; Vol. LXI, No. 43, p. 32, Aug, 21, 2015.

30. Profile of U.S. Freshmen, Fall 2014: selected activities done “Frequently” or “Occasionally” over the past year Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education: Almanac of Higher Education 2015-16; Vol. LXI, No. 43, p. 51, Aug, 21, 2015.

31. 8. Student Debt: Perceptions and Reality

32. Distribution of outstanding education debt balances, 2013 Note: This is for undergraduate and graduate combined. Source: College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2014, Table 18A

33. Distribution of total fall 2009 enrollment, borrowers entering repayment in FY 2011, and 3-year FY 2011 cohort defaulters, by sector Source: College Board, Trends in Student Aid 2014, Figure 19B.

34. 9. An Uneven Playing Field: Impact on Student Success

35. Percentage of 18 - 24-year-old White, Black and Hispanics enrolled in degree-granting institutions: 1972 - 2012 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, Fast Facts; Table 302.60.

36. Percentage of recent high school completers enrolled in 2-year and 4-year colleges, by income level: 1975 - 2013 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, Digest of Educational Statistics, 2014, Table 302.30

37. Combined mean SAT scores (critical reading, math, writing) by race/ethnicity, 2015; change since 2006 (Point increase since 2006) (Point decreases since 2006) Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, September 2015.

38. Dealing with disadvantage: 6-year graduation rates for Pell Grant and non-Pell students: 2013 Source: The Education Trust, The Pell Partnership: Ensuring a Shared Responsibility for Low-Income Student Success, Figure 1: 2013 Six-Year Bachelor's Degree Completion Rates, September 2015.

39. Looking Forward

40. The Challenges Before Us • Rising costs (and reluctance to pay them) • Increasingly competitive marketplace • Dependence on public monies (Pell, etc.) • Changing demographics (ethnicity, class, etc.) • Growing gap in student success • Less prepared students; need more support • Increasingly hostile political/cultural/social environment

41. Elements of a Strategy for Success • Focus on retention and completion • Diversify revenue streams • “Right start” (lessons from TRIO) • Prioritize signature/marque programs • Reduce/contain costs • Collaborations/partnerships (The Claremont Colleges, Carlton & St. Olaf, St. Benedicts & St. Johns, the 5 colleges of Massachusetts, etc. )

42. Some Promising Innovations • Blended/hybrid courses and programs • Flip the classroom, undergrad research, etc. • Adaptive courseware • 3-year undergraduate degrees • 5-year joint degrees: undergrad/graduate, • Competency-based programs • Use of free/open-access resources • Technology (remediation, monitoring, eAdvising, Khan Academy, etc.)