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The Washington Labor Market: Is This a Recovery or What?

The Washington Labor Market: Is This a Recovery or What?. To: Manufacturing and Wholesale Distribution Summit By Greg Weeks, Ph.D., Director of Labor Market & Economic Analysis September 14-15, 2010 Olympia, WA. Recessions History and Summary.

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The Washington Labor Market: Is This a Recovery or What?

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  1. The Washington Labor Market: Is This a Recovery or What? To: Manufacturing and Wholesale Distribution Summit By Greg Weeks, Ph.D., Director of Labor Market & Economic Analysis September 14-15, 2010 Olympia, WA

  2. Recessions History and Summary Timing of 2007 recession and recovery unofficial, by author

  3. Though foreclosures spiked in Washington, it was far less than in states with a bigger housing “bubble” * • Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Nevada • NSA, % • Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Arizona • NSA, % • mortforclosure.EMF (MBAMTG) NVL14F / AZL14F 993-1102

  4. Between these equity losses in value and home prices, US households lost nearly a year’s GDP in paper wealth * • NASDAQ Composite Market Capitalization • Billions, $ • NYSE Market Capitalization: • Billions.$ • mktcatnysenasdaq.EMF (USECON) SPNACAP / SPNYCAPH 9909-11008

  5. These data show the effects of the real estate financial crisis * • US Quarterly Housing Starts: 1 Unit Structures • 4-qtr Change Not Seasonally Adjusted, Thous.Units • ushsingstarts.EMF (USECON) HST1Q 993-1102

  6. Consumer confidence has recovered from record lows to “normal” recessionary levels * • Conference Board: Consumer Confidence • SA, 1985=100 • consconf.EMF (USECON) CCIN 7709-11008

  7. The recession hit both the nation and the state about equally hard * • Nonagricultural Employment, Washington • Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands • Nonfarm Employment, US • Seasonally Agjusted, Thousands • nonaguswa.EMF (LABORR) WALNAGRA / LANAGRA 9909-11008

  8. Both Washington and the US shed over 6% of their jobs in the recession * • Nonfarm Employment, US (Dec. 2007 = 100) • Seasonally Agjusted • Nonagricultural Employment, Washington (Dec. 2007 = 100) • Seasonally Adjusted • LANAGRAindex.EMF (LABORR) LANAGRA / WALNAGRA 9909-11008

  9. The Washington state unemployment rate has been just below the national rate throughout the recession * • Unemployment Rate, United States • Seasonally Adjusted, % • Unemployment Rate, Washington • Seasonally Adjusted, % • WAUSUR.EMF (EMPLR) USRA / WARA 9909-11008

  10. Much of Washington’s recent history has seen its unemployment rate exceed the national rate * • Unemployment Rate, United States • Seasonally Adjusted, % • Unemployment Rate, Washington • Seasonally Adjusted, % • USRALon gterm.EMF (EMPLR) USRA / WARA 7509-11008

  11. Washington near the middle of the pack among state unemployment rates * • Unemployment Rate, Washington (Seasonally Adjusted, %) • SA, % • Unemployment Rate, Oregon • SA, % • atatesurs.EMF (EMPLR) WARA / ORRA 9908-11007

  12. This recession hit men harder than women, US data * • Civilian Unemployment Rate: Women, 16 Years + • SA, % • Civilian Unemployment Rate: Men, 16 Years + • SA, % • MENWOMENUE.EMF (USECON) LRWT16 / LRMT16 9909-11008

  13. Recession hit less educated much harder, US data * • U.Rate: College Graduates: 25+ Years • SA, % • U.Rate: < Bachelor's Degree: 25+ Years • SA, % • ueeduc.EMF (USECON) LRCLG25 / LRLBA25 9909-11008

  14. Nationally, this recession was associated with unprecedented numbers of long term unemployed * • Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over • Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands • Civilians Unemployed for Less Than 5 Weeks • Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands • durationUI.EMF (USECON) LUT27 / LU0 9909-11008

  15. US measures of labor underutilization: what is the “real” unemployment rate? * • + Part Time Econ Reasons • SA,% • + Marginally Attached • SA, % • usaltmeasures.EMF (USECON) MLU6 / MLU5 9909-11008

  16. State measures of labor underutilization: What is the “real” unemployment rate?

  17. Construction and manufacturing industries hit particularly hard * • U. Rate: Wholesale and Retail Trade, US • NSA, % • U.Rate: Manufacturing,, US • NSA, % • urmanwholesconstr.EMF (USECON) LRNAWRTN / LRNAMGN 9909-11008

  18. Construction and manufacturing shed over four million jobs during the recession * • Wholesale Trade Employment (Thousands) • SA, Thous • Manufacturing Employment (Thousands) • SA, Thous • constmanwhole.EMF (USECON) LAWTRDA / LAMANUA 9909-11008

  19. Nationally, construction employment dropped 25% while manufacturing shed 15% of its employment * • US Wholesale Trade Employment, Decmber 2007 = 100 • 200712=100 • US Manufacturing Employment, December 2007 = 100 • 200712=100 • manconstwtusindex.EMF (USECON) LAWTRDA / LAMANUA 9909-11008

  20. Durable manufactured goods more cyclical than nondurable manufactured goods * • Washington Durable Goods Mfg. Employment • SA • Washington Non-Durable Goods Mfg. Employment • Seasonally Adjusted • wadurnondurmanempl.EMF (WACES) WAADURG / WAANDUR 9008-11007

  21. Manufacturers shipments have recovered more than employment * • Mfrs' Shipments: All Manufacturing Industries • Seasonally Adjusted, Millions $ • All Employees: Manufacturing • Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands • manempshpmnts.EMF (USECON) NMS / LAMANUA 6009-11008

  22. Nationally, wholesale sales have recovered stronger than employment * • US Wholesale Trade Employment (left) • Seasonally Adjusted, Thousands • US Merchant Wholesale Sales: (right) • Seasonally Adjusted, Millions $ • whlsemplsales.EMF (LABORR) LAWTRDA / NWSH 7009-11008

  23. Anemic recovery in wholesale trade employment * • All Employees: Wholesale Trade, Washington • 3-month avg Change SA • All Employees: Wholesale Trade, Washington • 1-month Change SA • wholesalechange.EMF (WACES) WAAWTRD / WAAWTRD 9908-11007

  24. Washington state lost 192,700 jobs during the recession (Feb 2008 – Dec 2009) * • All Employees: Total Nonfarm, Washington • 3-month avg Change SA • All Employees: Total Nonfarm, Washington • 1-month Change SA • WAnonfarmchange.EMF (WACES) WAANAGR / WAANAGR 9808-11007

  25. Within the state, the goods producing industries dropped about one-fifth of their employment * • All Employees: Service-Providing, Washington • 200712=100 • All Employees: Goods-Producing, Washington • 200712=100 • goodssvcWAindex.EMF (WACES) WAASERP / WAAGOOD 9908-11007

  26. In Washington, construction lost over 35% of its employment while manufacturing dropped 15% * • All Employees: Manufacturing, Washington • 200712=100 • All Employees: Construction, Washington • 200712=100 • manconstindexWA.EMF (LABORR) WALMANUA / WALCONSA 9908-11007

  27. These industries may have bottomed out * • Washington Professional & Business Svces Employment • SA • Washington: Retail Trade Employment • Seasonally Adjusted • profbussrvsnretailempl.EMF (WACES) WAAPBSV / WAARTRD 9008-11007

  28. These industries weathered the recession with no major job losses * • All Employees: Educational & Health Svcs, Washington • SA • All Employees: Information, Washington • SA • educhealthninfoWA.EMF (WACES) WAAEDUH / WAAINFO 9008-11007

  29. These industries lost about eight percent of their employment, but business services is stronger lately * • US Professional & Business Service Employment • December 2007 = 100 • US Retail Trade Employment • December 2007 = 100 • busservretail usindex.EMF (USECON) LAPBSVA / LARTRDA 9909-11008

  30. Washington heavy and civil engineering construction employment may have bottomed out * • WA Specialty Trade Contractors, Dec. 2007 = 100 • 200712=100 • WA Hvy and Civil Engineering Constr, Dec. 2007 = 100 • 200712=100 • WAconsttypes.EMF (WACES) WAAD8 / WAAD7 9908-11007

  31. Health services employment remained relatively strong throughout the recession * • All Employees: Leisure & Hospitality, Washington • December 2007 = 100 • All Employees: Educational & Health Svcs, Washington • December 2007 = 100 • WA leisurenednhealth servicesindex.EMF (WACES) WAALEIH / WAAEDUH 9908-11007

  32. Washington statewide hiring dropped substantially, but did not disappear during the recession

  33. Washington labor markets are dynamic -- hiring happens even in the depths of recession

  34. Washington Local Employment Dynamics: employment and new hires, by sector Source: Local Employment Dynamics Partnership, US Census Bureau and LMEA, ESD

  35. Thank you for your time and attention. Please direct any additional questions, comments, or suggestions to me at the email or telephone number below Greg Weeks, Email: gweeks@esd.wa.gov (360) 438-4804 www.workforceexplorer.com

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