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Climate Change Impacts & Resource Management

Climate Change Impacts & Resource Management. Stephen T. Gray Water Resources Data System WY State Climate Office University of Wyoming. The Scientific Consensus. The earth as a whole is getting warmer (>99 in 100 chance)* Approximately 1 °F over past 100 years

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Climate Change Impacts & Resource Management

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  1. Climate Change Impacts &Resource Management Stephen T. Gray Water Resources Data System WY State Climate Office University of Wyoming

  2. The Scientific Consensus • The earth as a whole is getting warmer (>99 in 100 chance)* • Approximately 1°F over past 100 years • Most of this warming is very likely (9 in 10) caused by human activities • Warming will very likely (9 in 10) continue for centuries to come *EPA 2006 and IPCC 2005, 2007

  3. How do we know the earth is warmer? Measured by thermometers and satellite observations Hansen et al. 2006, PNAS Brohan et al. 2006, JGR

  4. “The place we used to call Glacier National Park” BoulderGlacier 1932 Agassiz Glacier 1913

  5. “The place we used to call Glacier National Park” BoulderGlacier 1932 1988 Agassiz Glacier 1913 1998

  6. Observed Biological Responses

  7. The Scientific Consensus • Multiple lines of evidence show that the earth’s climate is changing • Instrumental observations • Observations of physical and biological systems • Rate and magnitude of changes unsurpassed in (at least) the last 2000 years • Spatial extent of changes unsurpassed for many 1000’s of years IPCC 2005, 2007

  8. Temperature increase and other climatic changes will continue for many centuries to come IPCC 2007

  9. The “Greenhouse Effect”

  10. Ice cores and other archives give us information on past climate and CO2

  11. Orbital changes and the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface

  12. Trumps other climate drivers

  13. Earth’s Orbit & Tilt CO2 etc. GLOBAL CLIMATE Dust Aerosols Ash Solar Output

  14. CO2 Earth’s Orbit & Tilt GLOBAL CLIMATE Dust Aerosols Ash Solar Output

  15. Ecosystem Management in the Western US Regional Impacts:

  16. Predictions for future precipitation trends • Small increases possible by end of 21st century • Predictions within the range of variability over • the past 1,000 years

  17. Predictions for future climate in the Central Rocky Mountain Region Based on regionalized output from seven leading climate models temp change vs. 1951-1980 mean 2 to 4 °C (3.6 to 7.2 °F) within our lifetimes All assessments agree — the West will be WARMER! Source: Natl. Acad. Sciences

  18. Small Warming, Big Changes • Small increases in regional temperature would have major consequences for the West’s natural resources, even in the absence of major precipitation change

  19. Warming = Perpetual Drought? No significant change In precipitation plus 1.4 °C temp. increase Small increases in temperature lead to increased evaporation and decreased water yield to streams No significant change In precipitation plus 2.8 °C temp. increase Calculated Palmer Drought Severity Index Values Source: Hoerling and Eischeid - SW Hydrology, 2007

  20. 2007: Melt-out Comes 4 to 8 Weeks Early

  21. Rain vs. Snow • Rain is likely to run off immediately rather than soaking into the soil • Rain may not be as effective as snow for recharging groundwater supplies • Shifting towards more rain will likely intensify late-summer droughts • Switching from snow to rain may have significant consequences for Western ecosystems

  22. The West’s Desert Climate Our #1 Vulnerability

  23. Wyoming Average Annual Precipitation: 1961-1990 Average Annual Precipitation (inches) Source: NRCS http://www.ncgc.nrcs.usda.gov/products/datasets/climate/data/index.html

  24. Wyoming: Areas with < 16” Annual Precipitation 71% of Wyoming averages less than 16” of precipitation each year

  25. Western Regional Climate STATE Rank Ann PPT Nevada 1 10.68” Arizona 2 13.13 Utah 3 13.90 New Mexico 4 14.93 Wyoming 5 16.84 Colorado 7 18.55 National Average 37.74

  26. TNC Invasives Project

  27. Challenges to Management • Communities in transition • Cycles of rapid change • Novel associations • Exotic species

  28. Conclusions • Wyoming and the West are extremely vulnerable to all types of climate change, natural and otherwise

  29. Conclusions • Wyoming and the West are extremely vulnerable to all types of climate change, natural and otherwise • The West will be drier • Less water overall • Potential for major changes in seasonal climate

  30. Conclusions • Wyoming and the West are extremely vulnerable to all types of climate change, natural and otherwise • The West will be drier • Less water overall • Potential for major changes in seasonal climate • Many factors will impact natural resources in the West • Climate will interact with land-use change, land-cover change, fire, etc.

  31. And now the good news…We know enough to start actingTODAYAdaptation is not dependant on causation

  32. Thanks!

  33. Contact Information: • Steve Gray • Water Resources Data System • 307-766-6651 • stateclim@wrds.uwyo.edu

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