Richard Birdsey, Yude Pan, Werner Kurz , Craig Wayson , Gregorio Angeles-Perez

1. Global Forest Carbon Monitoring: Opportunities to Apply the NACP Multi-tier Approach to UNFCCC Reporting and REDD Requirements Richard Birdsey, YudePan, Werner Kurz, Craig Wayson, Gregorio Angeles-Perez Includes contributions from Ben DeJong, Jing Chen, and Fangmin Zhang North American Carbon Program All-Investigator Meeting New Orleans, Louisiana 3 February, 2011

2. Overview • NACP multi-tier land monitoring approach • UNFCCC GHG inventory reporting by Canada, U.S., and Mexico • REDD requirements, data needs, and approaches • What next for NACP multi-tier approach?

3. NACP Hierarchical Land Surface Measurement Program (from NACP Science Plan) • Tier One – Remote Sensing and Mapping • Wall-to-wall coverage; stratification • Temporal resolution = high or low • Tier Two – Extensive Inventories and Surveys • Representative regional statistical sample • Temporal resolution = low • Tier Three – Condition Sample (new) • Representative of specified condition classes • Temporal resolution = medium • Tier Four –Intensive Areas • Relatively small number of specific sites • Temporal resolution = high

4. Multi-tier Sampling, Past and Present Graphic from Steve Running circa 2001

5. The “Multi-tier” Inventory Approach: Extensive Observations Linked to Intensive Studies • Remote sensing and mapping (T1) • Network of national inventory sample plots (T2) • Intensive measurement sites (T3 and T4) All tied together with ecosystem and accounting models Graphic from Warren Cohen (maybe)

6. Selected Land Variables and Measurement Methods

7. UNFCCC Reporting • Canada, the U.S.A., and Mexico all report greenhouse gas inventories following standard IPCC methodologies and reporting requirements (Mexico reports are voluntary). • Despite rather different national circumstances, reported estimates are reasonably consistent. • The 3 countries collaborate on methods development and application, share data to improve estimates, and produce joint reports (e.g., SOCCR).

8. Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) • An operational-scale model of stand and landscape-level forest C dynamics. • Allows forest managers to assess carbon implications of forest management: increase sinks, reduce sources • Used at National scale for reporting to UNFCCC • Freely available at: carbon.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca Kurz et al. 2009, Ecol. Modelling

9. Carbon Budget Model of Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) Forest inventory and growth & yield data Natural disturbance monitoring data Forest management activity data Land-use change data Ecological modelling parameters CBM-CFS3 Kurz et al. 2009, Ecol. Modelling

10. CBM-CFS3 General Approach and Results Stratification of forest into classes Relies heavily on existing forest inventory information Input data from forest inventories (or remote sensing) Empirical representation of growth dynamics at the stand level. Dead Organic Matter Dynamics linked to Biomass Process modelling of litterfall, mortality, disturbance impacts and decomposition to estimate DOM pools Simulates natural disturbances, forest management and land-use change Input data from forest monitoring including remote sensing Increasing impact of insects in recent years Stinson et al. 2011

11. Tier I – Remote sensing to stratify area Forest Inventory Approach, Basis for GHG Reporting (USA) State of Minnesota Tier 2 – Field inventory Tiers 3/4 – subsample of Tier 2 plus intensive site data FIA Sample Plot

12. Some Results from USA’s Forest Greenhouse Gas Inventory

13. Future USA GHG Inventory: High-resolution Estimates with Full Attribution to Causes Effects of climate variability, fire suppression, and natural disturbance • NACP research applied to partition effects of: • Climate variability • Atmospheric chemistry • Natural disturbances • Human actions Cumulative NEP Pan et al. 2009 Zhang et al. submitted 2000 1930

14. Evolving Methods for Mexico’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory of Forests • The first two inventories used IPCC default emission factors and FAO area statistics • The third inventory in 2006 was based on national inventory data and some default emission factors • The fourth inventory in 2009 was based on the new national inventory, land-cover change maps, and some country specific emission factors • Future inventories will include all C pools and analysis using CBM-CFS3 Adapted from Ben de Jong

15. Mexico’s Land Inventory Variable-density field sampling repeated every 5 years

16. Mexico’s GHG Emissions (2006) LULUCF 16.3% SEMARNAT-INE (2009)

17. Tropical Forests, the Global Carbon Cycle, and REDD+ • Tropical forests are the most dynamic terrestrial component of the global carbon budget (Global Carbon Project; FAO 2010; Pan et al. submitted) • 55% of total global forest carbon stock • 13% of total global CO2 emissions (net emissions from LUC) • 68% of total global forest CO2 removal from atmosphere (gross C uptake)

18. Tropical Forests, the Global Carbon Cycle, and REDD+ • Tropical forests are the most dynamic terrestrial component of the global carbon budget (Global Carbon Project; FAO 2010; Pan et al. submitted) • 55% of total global forest carbon stock • 13% of total global CO2 emissions (net emissions from LUC) • 68% of total global forest CO2 removal from atmosphere (gross C uptake) Data needs Moderate Very large Huge!

19. REDD+ Monitoring and Modeling Requirements • REDD+ includes: • Reducing deforestation and forest degradation • Conservation of forest C stocks • Sustainable forest management/enhancement of C stocks • Many existing guidelines, for example: • IPCC “Good Practice Guidance” and special reports • GEO, GOFC-GOLD, FAO REDD Programme • Flexibility needed to allow broad participation, but results must be consistent • Credible baseline projections needed to establish additionality: Monitoring Modeling Example: reference level = historical baseline (From FAO Little REDD book)

20. Examples of NACP/CarboNA Technical Support for REDD+ and Tropical Forest Monitoring • Canada: working with Mexico and other tropical countries to implement the CBM-CFS3 approach • U.S.A.: working with Mexico and other countries in forest inventory, remote sensing, and intensive-site measurements • Mexico: demonstrator country under GEO-FCT and leading example of implementing monitoring for REDD

21. U.S. and Mexico Conducting Pilot Study for American Network of Intensive Sites Tropical site t.b.d.

22. Measurements at Intensive Monitoring Sites (Tiers 3 and 4) • Biometrics – measurements of C pools • Eddy flux towers – monitoring of C exchange between land and atmosphere • Remote sensing – vegetation density and change

23. Conclusions and Recommendations • “Best” approach to GHG inventory depends on individual country circumstances and specific reporting and accounting requirements • Different monitoring approaches may yield similar results – combinations are often more efficient • REDD+ is here NOW – countries must demonstrate readiness • Financing and improved technical capacity needed by most tropical countries • The NACP and CarboNA could do much more to improve analysis and reporting in all 3 countries and elsewhere

24. Thanks!