Earth Science and Applications from Space Update on the Decadal Study Berrien Moore 25 August 2006

1. Earth Science and Applications from Space Update on the Decadal Study Berrien Moore 25 August 2006 University of New Hampshire b.moore@unh.edu http://qp.nas.edu/decadalsurvey

2. Decadal Survey: What is it? • Charge--The study will generate consensus recommendations from the Earth and environmental science and applications community regarding science priorities, opportunities afforded by new measurement types and new vantage points, and a systems approach to space-based and ancillary observations that encompasses the research programs of NASA and the related operational programs of NOAA. (emphasis added)

3. Decadal Survey: Specific Tasks • Review the status of the field to assess recent progress in resolving major scientific questions • Develop a consensus of the top-level scientific questions that should provide the focus for Earth and environmental observations in the period 2008-2020+. • Take account of the principal federal- and state-level users of these observations and identify opportunities and challenges to the exploitation of the data generated by Earth observations from space.

4. Decadal Survey: Specific Tasks • Recommend a prioritized list of measurements and identify potential new space-based capabilities and supporting activities within NASA and NOAA to support national needs for research and monitoring of the dynamic Earth system during the “decade” 2008-2020+. • Identify important directions that should influence planning for the decade beyond 2020. The committee will also give particular attention to strategies for NOAA to evolve current capabilities while meeting operational needs to collect, archive, and disseminate high quality data products.

5. Decadal Survey: Structure • Executive Committee (Co-chairs): Rick Anthes (UCAR) and Berrien Moore (UNH) • Seven Panels • Earth Science Applications and Societal Needs • Land-use Change, Ecosystem Dynamics, and Biodiversity • Weather (including space weather and chemical weather) • Climate Variability and Change • Water Resources and the Global Hydrologic Cycle • Human Health and Security • Solid-Earth hazards, resources, and dynamics

6. Decadal Survey: Executive Committee • Rick Anthes and Berrien Moore • At Large Members • Jim Anderson, Harvard University, atmospheric science • Susan Cutter, Univ. of South Carolina, hazards and risk • Bill Gail, Vexcel Corporation, Earth remote sensing technology • Tony Hollingsworth, ECMWF, weather • Kathie Kelly, Univ. of Washington, oceanography • Neal Lane, Rice University, policy • Bruce Marcus, (retired; TRW), remote sensing technology • Warren Washington, NCAR, numerical modeling of climate • Mary Lou Zoback, U.S. Geological Survey, solid Earth • Chairs on the Seven Panels

7. Decadal Survey: Panels • Earth Science Applications and Societal Needs. Chair: Tony Janetos, Heinz Center; Vice Chair: Roberta Balstad, Columbia University • Land-use Change, Ecosystem Dynamics, and Biodiversity. Chair: Ruth DeFries, U. Maryland; Vice Chair: Otis Brown, U. Miami • Weather (incl. space weather and chemical weather). Chair: Susan Avery, U. Colorado; Vice Chair: Tom Vonder Haar, Colorado State • Climate Variability and Change. Chair: Eric Barron, U Texas; Vice Chair: Joyce Penner, U. Michigan • Water Resources and the Global Hydrologic Cycle. Chair: Dennis Lettenmaier, U. Washington; Vice Chair: Anne Nolin, Oregon State • Human Health and Security. Chair: Mark Wilson, U. Michigan; Vice Chair: Rita Colwell, Canon USA • Solid-Earth hazards, resources, and dynamics. Chair: Brad Hager, MIT; Vice Chair: Sue Brantley, Penn State

8. Broad Context--Why Now • NASA is nearing completion of the deployment of the Earth Observing System (EOS) and is now considering an appropriate strategy for follow-on exploratory and systematic missions. • In the coming decade, NASA plans to transition a number of environmental measurements from research-oriented programs to operationally oriented programs. • In the coming decade, the new NPOESS and GOES-R will be used to monitor global environmental conditions and collect and disseminate data related to weather, atmosphere, oceans, land and near-space environment. • The United States is leading the development of a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)

9. Broad Context--Why Really Now (A view) • It is needed--the government lacks an over-arching strategy for Earth Observation; there are pieces via science programs such as the Climate Change Science Program but no coherent, overarching, broad(er), strategy. • Not only is the strategy missing but so is a coherent and politically compelling rationale. • The needs to be a vehicle to bring the Earth science community together in order to have its views heard--it is often too diffuse to be (politically) effective. • There are big problems in Earth Observation everywhere

10. Decadal Survey: Schedule • Community Meeting in Wood Hole August 2004: Framing the Study • Executive Committee metNovember 2004 • Town hall meetings at AGU (December 2004, San Francisco)and AMS (January 2005 San Diego) announcing Request for Information for potential missions • 27 April 2005Interim Report is delivered to sponsors • Summer study August 2005 producing panel input into a detailed outline • Executive Committee refine strategy and review Panel progress October 2005 • December 2005 and January 2006 special sessions at AGU and AMS to discuss progress • Executive Committee (plus) refine and begin tointerleave panel priorities January 2006 • Executive Committee (plus) interleave panel priorities May 2006 • Executive Committee (plus) Final Report writing August 2006 • October 2006 DRAFT Final report is delivered to NRC for review • December 2006 Final Report is delivered to Sponsors

11. VISION A healthy, secure, prosperous and sustainable society for all people on Earth “Understanding the complex, changing planet on which we live, how it supports life, and how human activities affect its ability to do so in the future is one of the greatest intellectual challenges facing humanity. It is also one of the most important for society as it seeks to achieve prosperity and sustainability.” NRC (April 2005)

12. Interim Report Issued 27 April 2005 “Today, this system of environmental satellites is at risk of collapse.”

13. Interim Report (April 2005) • Overriding Concern: Absence of Plans for Future Research Missions (Mission Queue) • Consequences of canceled, descoped, and delayed missions: LDCM, OVWM, GIFTS, Glory (APS and TIM), WSOA, and GPM • Delays in Explorer (Earth System Science Pathfinder) line • Steps to ensure climate data records (via NPOESS) • Technology base to support new missions, for example: • InSAR • Wide-swath ocean altimetry • Measurement from space of tropospheric winds Recommendations related to above

14. Since the Interim Report… • Major problems with NPOESS • Delays of several years • Descoping and loss of one spacecraft-10:30 orbit • NASA “terminates” two more missions and delays (with NOAA’s “help”) 2 others • DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) • HYDROS • GPM Delayed 2.5 years • NPP Delayed 1.5 years • R&A cuts 15+% • LandSat and Glory as Free-flyers • A change in sign in the d/dt of the Earth Sciences NASA budget (whew!)

15. Some good news! (Plus GOES-N) • Successful launch of COSMIC • April 14, 2006 • Ionospheric electron density • Stratospheric T • Tropospheric T, water vapor • Successful launch of Cloudsat /Calipso • April 28, 2006 • Cloud-profiling radar • Camera,LIDAR, Imaging IR radiometer

16. Since the Interim Report… A change in sign in the d/dt of the Earth Sciences NASA budget (whew!)

18. NASA Earth Science Funding: Past and Future Projection Prior FY07 Request Decadal Survey $ Million Missions Non-Mission Year

19. Criteria for Prioritization • Contributes to the most important scientific questions facing Earth sciences today (scientific merit-discovery, exploration); • Contributes to applications and policy making (societal benefits); • Contributes to long-term observational record of the Earth; • Complements other observational systems, including national and international plans; • Affordable (cost considerations, either total costs for mission or costs per year); • Degree of readiness (technical, resources, people); • Risk mitigation and strategic redundancy (backup of other critical systems); • Makes a significant contribution to more than one thematic application or scientific discipline. Above not in priority order

20. Authorizing Language 2006 "The conferees are aware that the National Academy of Sciences is continuing to work on an Earth Science and Applications from Space Decadal Survey which is due to be completed in 2006. In preparing the science plan, NASA should, to the greatest extent possible, take into consideration information available from the Decadal Survey. The conferees expect NASA to notify the authorizing committees if the completed Decadal Survey would change any of the information provided in the science plan."