DHM

1. CryosPheric responses to Anthropogenic PRessures in the HIndu Kush-Himalaya regions: impacts on water resources and society adaptation in Nepal Centre d'Etudes Himalayennes DHM

2. Main objectives of PAPRIKA-Nepal • To contribute to a more accurate assessment of glacier retreat and snow cover changes in the HKH region and a better understanding of the surface processes governing glacier and snow melt • To evaluate the distribution and variability of absorbing aerosol particles from anthropogenic origin transported to the high altitude regions of HKH • To establish and model the current energy budget of snow surfaces, including the effect of absorbing aerosols deposited in snow and their impact on water melting rates. • To provide climate trends and scenarios at the regional level • To use these projections to quantify current and future water resource in the area of Nepal • To study adaptation options of mountain communities to changes in water availability. • To propose plausible adaptation strategiesfor changing risks, including analysis of their economic efficiency and benefits within the social welfarecontext.

3. ELEMENT 1: Water Ressources input, Climate and Anthropogenic Pressures on the Cryosphere / Climate and Monsoon System WP1 Cryospheric resources: glacier melting and snow cover mapping WP2 Optically Active Aerosols in snow observation and modelling WP4 Modelling the interaction between snow pack, radiation and aerosols WP3 Climate and Monsoon Variability Modelling Work Packages

4. Work Packages WP5 Water Resources in Future Climate Change Scenarii WP7 Capacity Building and Dissemination of Information WP6 Perception of Changes by Population and adaptation within the four Nepal Geographic Units ELEMENT 2: Impact on the Water Resource System and Population

5. Perception of changes by population and adaptation New Scientific Knowledge (data base, new models, new physics) Water resources in future climate change scenarios Nepal region General circulation model (LMDz) Climate scenarios Regional model (MARdm) and downscaling Meteorological observation Land Emission Snow-pack/glacier Modelling Atmospheric Composition Ice core Rainfall Remote sensing Snow Capacity building and dissemination of information BC Run-Off Glacier Benchmark glaciers Hydrological modelling

6. WP 1: Water ressource and cryosphere: snow and glacier melting (observation and modelling) Aerosols: Modification of thermal atmospheric structure, water vapor, clouds and precipitation Aerosol impact according to glacier faces (snow, ice, debris covered) Aérosols: Dépots carbone suie et poussières: (Albedo)

7. WP2: OPTICALLY ACTIVE AEROSOL IN ATMOSPHERE AND SNOW Snow samples from Pyramid , Pokalde and Changri Nup glaciers Brown Cloud seen from the NCO-P station, transported up through the valley NCO-P station, close to Pyramid laboratory

8. WP3: Climate and monsoon variability The model(s) used: LMDz-ORCHIDEE-INCA (SST fixed) Computes the aerosol concentrations and deposition, represent the change in albedo Coupled IPSL model Changes in the intensity, onset phases and extent of the monsoon

9. + + Work package 4: MODELLING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SNOWPACK, RADIATION, AND THE ABSORBING MATERIAL DEPOSITED IN THE SNOW SNOWPACK MODELING USING CROCUS with INPUT from observations or regional / global models • Local 1D modeling of optical snowpack properties for different conditions / altitudes: • glaciers • seasonal snowpack ATMOSPHERE Implementation of the effect of BC on snow albedo and radiation transfer in the snowpack Incoming solar radiation Incoming IR radiation albedo incoming radiation snow type Sensible / latent heat fluxes rain snow ++ BC deposition Wind ++ SNOWPACK  • Quantification of BC impact in snow on • melting rates and days • contribution of the snow melting to the total run-off • sensitivities to future changes in temperature and atmospheric BC - conduction - melting / freezing - percolation - settling - metamorphism  GROUND temperature BC content radiation geothermal heat flux melting run-off also:density specific surface area diffusion / advection

10. Paprika - WP5Future of the water resources • Input from WP1, WP3, WP4 • 3 components • Glacier melt • Snowpack melt • Rainfall • Headwater < 200 km² • Upper valley > 1000 km² • Koshi River basin > 20000 km² • Simulate the discharge under different scenarios at different scales

11. WP 6: Perception of changes by populations and adaptation within the four Nepal geographic units => consequences of climate change on populations: - changes in water uses due to variations in the availability of the resource + the socio-economic impact. - flood risks in the Terai plain => to map areas concerned by change and risk + to estimate affected populations [ using GIS & population census data].

12. WP7: Local communities and capacity building and dissemination Objectives: 1/ To confront scientific and local knowledge on the evolution of natural resources and on people’s vulnerability in the face of natural hazards; 3/ To define strategies and plans to enhance local capacities in the face of environmental hazards; 4/ To provide authorities with recommendations on how to consider and integrate people’s ability Lower Koshi River basin Saptari District – Nepal Method: Participatory 3-Dimensional Mapping (P3DM) in Irosin, Philippines, in January 2010