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Latam Chartbook BOULDER STRATEGIES

Analysis of monetary policy, commodity prices, GDP growth, doing business ranking, education, and infrastructure in Latin America as of March 2017. Data sources include IMF, BNP Paribas, and more.

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Latam Chartbook BOULDER STRATEGIES

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  1. LatamChartbook BOULDER STRATEGIES MARCH 2017 Ieausp presentation Marcelo Carvalho @MCarvalhoEcon

  2. GLOBAL MONETARY POLICY • Fed Funds target rate and 2yr Treasury bond yields (%, a.r.) • Source: ECB, FED, BoJ, Macrobond, BNP Paribas • Global monetary policy: still easy

  3. GLOBAL: COMMODITY PRICES • IMF non-fuel commodities price index (2005=100) • Source: IMF, Macrobond, BNP Paribas. Dotted lines show IMF forecasts. • Looking better

  4. LATAM: COMMODITIES AS A SHARE OF LATAM EXPORTS (%) • Source: IBGE, DANE, INEGI, BCRA, INE. Ratios based on 2013 data. • Export exposure to commodities varies across the region

  5. LATAM: REAL GDP GROWTH PERFORMANCE (%, y/y) • Source: IMF, BNP Paribas; *BNP Paribas Market Economics forecasts • Growth is down from the golden days of the commodity price boom, but should recover

  6. LATAM: DOING BUSINESS RANKING CORRELATES WITH INCOME • BIGGER NUMBERS MEAN WORSE AT DOING BUSINESS RANK • Source: World Bank, BNP Paribas; • The good: Chile, Mexico, Peru, Colombia. The bad: Brazil, Argentina. The ugly: Venezuela.

  7. LATAM: QUALITY OF EDUCATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE • HIGHER MEANS BETTER *Students’ outcomes on mathematics test in the latest Programme for International Assessment (Pisa). The scales reflect the percentile ranking. • Source: OECD, World Economic Forum, BNP Paribas. • Latam countries need to improve their human capital and physical infrastructure

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