Ethnic Minorities ’ voting behaviour, political engagement and national identity

1. Ethnic Minorities’ voting behaviour, political engagement and national identity Anthony Heath Universities of Manchester and Oxford

2. Aims of the talk • To share new findings from the Ethnic Minority British Election Survey (EMBES) • To report on the political integration of the main minorities – people of Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Black African and Caribbean heritage • To explore differences between 1st and 2nd generations • To explore implications for question ‘Has multiculturalism failed?’

3. Some theoretical issues – exclusion or choice ? • A great deal of evidence that minorities are discriminated against in the labour market. Does economic discrimination lead to political alienation of minorities? • Is there a parallel exclusion of minorities from the political process – eg in terms of MPs or representation of minority interests? • Do minorities choose not to participate, eg because less committed to democracy and/or British society? • Or are minorities as committed to democratic norms and values as the majority?

4. Generational differences • My work on the labour market has focussed on the second generation – key test of whether minorities are able to compete on a level playing field • Similar concerns may be relevant in politics – first generation may lack English skills, may lack knowledge of British politics, were not socialized into British democratic values

5. EMBES • Nationally-representative probability sample of main established ethnic minorities • Over-sample in areas of high ethnic minority density • Harmonized with main British Election Survey (which we use to examine attitudes and behaviour of the White British majority group) • Very good response rate (60%) but always risk that most alienated will not participate in the survey

6. Sample characteristics EMBES BES White British 0 3126 Other white 0 57 Mixed 113 32 Indian 587 52 Pakistani 668 17 Bangladeshi 270 8 Black Caribbean 598 31 Black African 525 38 Other 26 59

7. The concept of ethnicity • Official categories will not reflect actual ethnic identities – major ethnic differences within all these five groups (eg Punjabis, Baluchis, Azad Kashmiris among the people from Pakistan) • Also important differences between religious groups – especially Sikh, Hindu, Muslim, Christian differences among Indians • More detailed analysis needed

8. Topics to be covered • Registration • Turnout • Party choice • Satisfaction with British democracy • Feelings of unfair treatment • Ethnic and British identity

9. Registration • All British citizens, and Commonwealth citizens but not EU citizens, are eligible to vote in general elections • But some who eligible still may not register – not interested in British politics, undocumented, don’t know they are eligible, worried about authorities

10. Registration 1ST GEN 2ND GEN White British - 97 Indian 90 97 Pakistani 91 96 Bangladeshi 95 92 Black Caribbean 95 92 Black African 79 85

11. Reasons for not being registered • 1st generation respondents told us that major factor in lack of registration was ineligibility (esp the Black Africans) but also lack of knowledge about how to register • NB less than half the 1st generation said that they spoke English very well compared with 90% of 2nd generation • Among 2nd generation Black Caribbeans lack of interest was often mentioned

12. Turnout • Might expect that people who have actually registered would turn out to vote • But we know that, among White British, many do not vote due to lack of interest, feeling that none of the parties really represents them, lack of sense of civic duty. • Expect turnout to be lower among first generation, especially those coming from non-democratic countries

13. Self-reported turnout among registered voters 1st gen 2nd gen White British - 79 Indian 73 81 Pakistani 76 73 Bangladeshi 81 77 Black Caribbean 71 69 Black African 62 62

14. Reasons for not voting • Little sign of any generational difference, but a clear tendency for the Black groups to have lower turnout. • Can only partly be explained by standard resource theories. • Around 50% of 2nd generation Black African and Black Caribbean respondents felt that no party really represented their views

15. Vote in 2010 Lab Cons LD Other White British 29 40 25 7 Indian 61 25 13 1 Pakistani 59 11 25 5 Bangladeshi 71 17 9 3 Black Caribbean 78 9 11 1 Black African 85 6 7 2

16. Continuities with previous research • Continuation of previous pattern for minorities to show much greater level of support for Labour, though minorities swung away from Labour much as the majority did • But also some big differences between minorities • Indians are the ones most likely to support Conservatives, and middle-class Indians have even higher Conservative vote • Note that ethnicity does not ‘trump’ class – though ethnicity is a much stronger basis of vote than class is today

17. % voting Labour 1st gen 2nd gen White British - 29 Indian 60 60 Pakistani 64 56 Bangladeshi 73 65 Black Caribbean 87 71 Black African 87 76

18. Possible implications • Interesting pattern for Labour support to decline across the generations – disillusionment or gradual convergence towards the majority pattern? • Labour should not assume that it can take minority support for granted • Also note that minorities now provide a larger share of the Labour vote than they have ever done before

19. Mixed picture so far • Generally minorities seem to be politically integrated – registering to vote, turning out, and supporting mainstream parties • Differences between minorities are relatively small, though Black groups seem somewhat less integrated • 2nd generation Black Caribbeans particularly disillusioned – perhaps with good cause

20. % very or fairly satisfied with way democracy works in Britain 1st gen 2nd gen White British - 52 Indian 78 59 Pakistani 80 60 Bangladeshi 82 57 Black Caribbean 56 41 Black African 75 56

21. Immigrant optimism? • 1st generation enthusiastic about British democracy • Declining satisfaction in the 2nd generation – though higher satisfaction than the majority group • Black Caribbeans stand out though as less satisfied

22. Ethnic or British identity? “some people think of themselves first as British. Others think of themselves first as Scottish. Which best describes how you think of yourself? Scottish not British More Scottish than British Equally Scottish and British More British than Scottish British not Scottish

23. % feeling more Scottish/Black/Asian than British 1st gen 2nd gen Scottish residents - 60 Indian 35 14 Pakistani 28 14 Bangladeshi 34 19 Black Caribbean 44 33 Black African 53 41

24. Discrimination and exclusion • Previous research has suggested that experience of discrimination undermines a sense of belonging to Britain • My report for Lord Goldsmith’s review of citizenship emphasized that there was no crisis of British identity among minorities in general, but that young Black Caribbeans felt alienated because of discrimination

25. % agreeing government treats people like me/my ethnic group fairly 1st gen 2nd gen White British 33 Indian 70 59 Pakistani 69 50 Bangladeshi 67 57 Black Caribbean 33 24 Black African 48 31

26. Has multiculturalism failed? • Possibly – though not for the reasons Angela Merkel thinks • First generation show ‘immigrant optimism’ and positive orientations despite lack of fluency in English • Second generation show convergence to majority patterns – less positive though also feeling more ‘British’ and much better at English. • But Blacks, especially Black Caribbeans, show signs of disaffection – almost certainly arising from feelings of unfair treatment • Feelings of unfairness greater in the 2nd generation – perhaps because of changed frame of reference

27. Exclusion or choice? • The key issue then does not seem to be that minorities don’t want to be involved in British democracy • The key issue is that Black Caribbeans do not feel that they are fairly treated – with risks of alienation and disaffection • Unequal treatment is the problem not unequal willingness to integrate politically