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Implementation of RRR in China: Evaluate impact of China Automatic Surface Observation Network on numerical weather fore

This study evaluates the impact of surface observations from the China Automatic Surface Observation Network on numerical weather forecasts. It discusses the implementation of the WMO RRR process in China, ongoing work, and future vision.

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Implementation of RRR in China: Evaluate impact of China Automatic Surface Observation Network on numerical weather fore

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  1. Implementation of RRR in China (Evaluate the impact of surface observations from China Automatic Surface Observation Network on numerical weather forecast) Jianxia Guo Meteorological Observation Center of CMA Email: gjxaoc@cma.gov.cn

  2. Outline • Background • Implementation of the WMO RRR (The Rolling Review of Requirements) Process in china • The on going work and the vision

  3. Background • Large of area • Complex of topography • Diverse of weather systems • Frequent of meteorological disasters • Big challenge for meteorological observation and weather forecast

  4. Background Doppler Weather Radars 181 • The Current surface-based Network • Surface Observation • AWS 2423+55680 • Marine met. Station 475 • Agro-met. Observation 2075 • Environmental Met. Obs. • Upper Air Observation 120 +3 • Weather Radar Network 181 • Wind profile 69 • GNSS/met Raidosond 120+3 National surface observation stations 2423

  5. Issues • How to make a integrated network in such a complex situation? • Establish a integrated view to the various observation networks. • Have effective tools to handle the complex situation and various temporal and spatial scales observation. • Develop and design the new observation or improve the existing observation based on the integrated view.

  6. Outline • Background • Implementation of the WMO RRR (The Rolling Requirements Review) Process in China • The on going work and the vision

  7. EVALUATION OF REQUIREMENTSAGAINSTSYSTEM CAPABILITIES

  8. User requirements to Observation • Requirements statement • (quantitative) • Horizontal and vertical • resolution; • frequency • (observation cycle); • Timeliness • (delay in availability) ; • Accuracy • (acceptable root mean • square error and any • limitations on bias). • Maximum requirement • Threshold requirement Application areas • Global numerical weather prediction; • Regional numerical weather prediction; • Synoptic meteorology; • Nowcasting and very short-range forecasting; • Seasonal and inter-annual forecasts; • Atmospheric chemistry; • Aeronautical meteorology; • Climate variability; • Climate change; • Marine meteorology; • Hydrology; • Agricultural meteorology.

  9. Observing system capabilities analysis and review

  10. The critical review • Numerical model and Data assimilation are important and useful tool for critical review ; • Make the critical review process objective; • Establish a integrated view to the observing systems; • Quantify the contribution of each observing systems to NWP; • Target the observation area for special weather system; • Assess the quality of the each observation; • Produce new observation products; • Design the observation network.

  11. Practices • Optimization of the reference climate observation network; • Team work, from 2009 to 2012. • Optimization of the surface AWS network. • Team work, on going since 2014.

  12. Optimization of the reference climate observation network • The requirements: • Representativeness (away from the local influence). • Sustainable (lasting for a long time without interference). • Accuracy (meet the GCOS requirements) • The coverage (the network should cover the whole country).

  13. Cont’ • The capabilities data base • The surrounding environment detail from the field investments. • The series of historical land-use type around the site of 50km from MODIS.

  14. Cont’ • The  satellite images over the site to calculate the proportion of the city area around the site.

  15. Cont’ • The layout of city developing plan of 20 or 30 years from the local government near the site. • The observation data records. • The information of the location, instruments, calibration etc.

  16. Cont’ • The critical review • Single station assessment • The grades of the surrounding environs. • The quality of the data series. • The contribution of the representative area. • The impregnability by the city developing plan.

  17. Cont’ • The network assessment • The coverage cost. • The covariance between the chosen network with the background. Original netwrok Ratio of coverage optimized Station number Temperature covariance

  18. Cont’ • The results • Degraded some stations from the climate reference station’s rank to the basic station’s rank; • Upgraded some good stations from the basic or ordinary station’s rank; • Established some new stations at the west part of china.

  19. Optimization of the surface AWS network National surface observation stations:2423 supported and managed by CMA Unified criteria and standards Regional automatic weather stations: 55680 supported by : CMA local government other organizations managed by: local Meteorological other organizations standards are not unified most of them lack of calibration Needs: NWP need more dense data than the national stations to evaluate the forecast results; Meso-scale severe weather need to be captured by sufficient and credible data.

  20. Comprehensive analysis and decision-making decision-making and statement Requirements by NWP (impact study) Requirements and critical review 2 Requirements by severe weather capture Requirements and critical review 1 The status of the existing AWS Capability RRR process 2016 2015 2014

  21. Stage 1 (2014) • Capabilities data base • Collected metadata of AWS • Instruments • factory , type approval, deployed time, calibration • Running condition • power supply, communication mode, access • Site • Location, area, land cover, surrounding environs, thunder prevention • Measurement elements Provincial and local meteorological services all over the country participated in. Greatly contribute to the judgment of data credible.

  22. Stage 2 (2015) • Requirements analysis 1 • Weather systems analysis • Focus on 7 types of weather systems that may induce the severe weather.(low pressure ,convergence line, low vortex, low trough, front, shear line, the subtropical high) • Scale, activity area • High-impact /severe weather analysis • Focus on 4 kinds of high-impact /severe weather (heavy rain, wind, hail and thunderstorm) • Occurrence source, developing and weakening area, moving route and other sensitive areas. Forecasters from 31 province did the analysis. They selected 13850 AWS in the important areas according to the metadata.

  23. Stage 3 (2016) • NWP requirements analysis ( critical review) • Impact study • OSEs, OSSEs, FSO • Case study, period operational running test • Density variation test for the economic selections. • As the complex condition, different region may have different impact results. National and 8 regional NWP centers have joined in this work.

  24. cont’ • A technical experts team has been established. Exchange the progress and problems frequently. • The technical detail has been determined by the participants. • SMS completed 4 case studies and got some encouraged results. Dr. Sun Min will show the presentation soon.

  25. Preliminary case study • Case:, 2015-06-06,12UTC- 2015-06-08,00UTC Torrential rain caused by Low vortex shear observation 24h precipitation 2015-06-07,00UTC-2015-06-08,00UTC

  26. Model • Model：WRF_V3.6.1 • Assimilation ：WRFDA_V3.6.1, 3DVAR Background: GSF Analysis 0.5〬*0.5〬 • Period：2015-06-06,12UTC~2015-06-08日,00UTC • Centre of D01：（29〬N, 110〬E） • Grid：171*171；253*241 • Vertical ：41 • Resolution：27km，9km • Steps：180s • Physics ：WRF double moment,6-class scheme New Grell scheme

  27. experiments

  28. 2015-06-06,12UTC SNOP（6164，blue） Radio sound（401，red） 2015-06-06,12UTC Regional AWS（40308）

  29. TRUE observation

  30. EXP_NON_ASON EXP_NON_ASON_T EXP_NON_ASON_TD EXP_NON_ASON_P EXP_NON_ASON_V T>P>V>TD

  31. Thanks for your attention!Any suggestions?

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