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Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC

IOC contributions to a Global Tsunami EWS and other ocean generated hazards Symposium on Multi-hazard EWS for Integrated Disaster Risk Management Geneva, 23 May 2006. Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC. Plate Tectonics. GFZ, Potsdam.

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Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC

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  1. IOC contributions to a Global Tsunami EWS and other ocean generated hazardsSymposium on Multi-hazard EWS for Integrated Disaster Risk ManagementGeneva, 23 May 2006 Patricio A. Bernal, Executive Secretary of IOC

  2. Plate Tectonics GFZ, Potsdam

  3. Distribution of Large Earthquakes and Earthquakes Accompanied with Tsunami with Tsunami greater than M6.0

  4. Tsunami probability based on historic data F. Schindele, CEA

  5. 1965: IOC established the International Coordination Group for the Tsunami Warning System in the Pacific Ocean (PTWS) following th valdivia (1960) and Alaska (1964) tsunamis

  6. IOC ICG/PTWS 28 member States (2005): Australia, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Ecuador, El Salvador, Fiji, France, Guatemala, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Thailand, United States, Samoa. • Successful Operational Tsunami Warning System > 40 yrs • Well recognised international scientific program • Pacific Basin monitoring of seismicity and sea levels • Direct humanitarian aim • Mitigate tsunami effects - save lives/property

  7. After the December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and immediate response of the UN and Governments • March & April 2005: Two International Coordination meetings (Paris and Mauritius) for the Development of an Indian Ocean TWS

  8. June 21-30, 2005: the 23rd IOC Assembly approved resolutions for the establishment of a global strategy and three regional Intergovernmental Coordination Groups on TEWS (XXIII-12 to XXXIII-15) for • the Indian Ocean (ICG/IOTWS) • the Caribbean (ICG/CARIBE-EWS) • the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean (ICG/NEAMTWS)

  9. Global and Regional Tsunami Warning Centers ICG/NEAMTWS WC/ATWC NWPTAC PTWC ICG/CA ICG/IOTWS SWP-TWS

  10. http://ioc3.unesco.org/ Indotsunami/

  11. IO initial System for July 2006 • Based on Existing: • Network of 26(29) National Information Centres [24/7] • Fast Track implementations of projects to • upgrade existing seismographic network • improve existing sea-level network (key stations with 1min data transmission interval) • upgrade data and information communication system

  12. Agreed Seismographic Stations

  13. The Challenge for the IO • We essentially know what is needed at the country level in 16 countries and this work will be completed in 2006 for the rest. • ICG/IOTWS is requesting a comprehensive Plan, incl. the country level • the need of the development of the National Plans

  14. Necessary Elements for Determination of Earthquake Location and Magnitude Seismic Wave Maximum Amplitude S arrival P arrival Maximum Amplitude of Seismic Waves Arrival Time of Seismic Waves (P and/or S waves) Magnitude Location (Latitude, Longitude and Depth)

  15. LISS/IRIS Waveforms: Large Earthquake WVT BBSR DWPF SAML RCBR PTCN TRQA （Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005） SAML P S TRQA Station Map P S RCBR P S data loss DWPF P BBSR P PTCN P WVT There are about 20~30% stations JMA could not receive complete waveform data. P data loss 5minutes

  16. CTBTO/IMS Waveforms ILAR CMAR PMG LPAZ STKA USHA （Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005） P Early Detection Station Map P S P P P JMA could receive complete waveform data from almost all stations. P

  17. Data Availability Average Internet　82.14% CTBTO/IMS　99.67%

  18. Data Transmission Delay CTBTO/IMS : 30 seconds at most LISS :100 seconds on average IRIS :180 seconds on average

  19. Earthquake Detection and Delay （Chile M7.8, July 13, 2005） LPAZ (Earliest CTBTO/IMS station) Earthquake Detection at JMA (30 seconds delay) JMA could detect the earthquake by the CTBTO/IMS station 180 seconds earlier than by the LISS station. Seismic wave arrived at the CTBTO/IMS earliest station 110 seconds earlier than at LISS earliest station. Earthquake Detection at JMA (100seconds delay) SAML (Earliest LISS station)

  20. Depth Error Estimated Hypocenter Internet(LISS,IRIS) Internet(LISS,IRIS)+ CTBTO/IMS Depth Error (km)

  21. Near Sumatra Islands Horizontal Error Estimated Hypocenter Internet(LISS,IRIS)+ CTBTO/IMS Internet(LISS,IRIS)

  22. Near Chile (Southern America) Horizontal Error Estimated Hypocenter Internet(LISS,IRIS)+ CTBTO/IMS Internet(LISS,IRIS)

  23. IOC contributions to monitoring other Hazards of ocean origin • Storm – surges, JCOMM (IOC – WMO) • Tropical storms, JCOMM • Improving Storm and cyclones tracking and landing forecasts, JCOMM • Extreme ocean wave weather (36 – 72 hours forecasts • Ice Hazard, JCOMM • Oil Spills tracking and landing, IOC, WMO, UNEP • Red Tides, IOC, FAO, WHO

  24. IOC Strategy and implementation • Development of Interoperable Regional EWS. • 03-05 Aug 2005: ICG/IOTWS-I, Perth • 21-22 Nov 2005: ICG/NEAMTWS-I, Rome • 14-16 Dec 2005: ICG/IOTWS-II, Hyderabad • 10-12 Jan 2006: ICG/CARTWS-I, Barbados • 1-5 May 2006: ICG/ITSU-XXI, Melbourne • 22-24 May 2006: ICG/NEAMTWS-II, Nice and to come: • 31 July-2 August 2006: ICG/IOTWS-III, Bali • Dec 2006: ICG/CARTWS-II, Venezuela • Global Integration • Apply synergies and cost-efficiency into the development of a single global meta-system • 24 of June 2006: Global Multi-hazard meeting in Paris, “Ad-hoc WG on the framework for a Global Tsunami and other Ocean-related Hazards Early Warning System.”

  25. For further information see: http://www.ioc-goos.org/ http://ioc.unesco.org/indotsunami http://ioc3.unesco.org/neamtws http://ioc3.unesco.org/cartws http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic

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