Regional disparities in Bulgaria – evaluation and policy implications

1. Regional disparities in Bulgaria – evaluation and policy implications Yana Kirilova, Ph.D. Institute of Economic Studies, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

2. General information • Bulgaria – member of the EU since 2007. • EU structural and cohesion funds utilized through operational programs. • Operational Program “Regional Development” • Next programming period 2014-2020 – need for new programming of regional development.

3. Preparation of OPRD 2014-2020 • Project “Socio-economic analyses for preparation of OPRD 2014-2020” • Institute of Economic Studies, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences • Sofia Consulting Group, Bulgaria • Four-year project (2011-2014)

4. Analyses focused on: • Regional disparities in terms of: • Demographic situation; • Labor market; • Incomes; • Economic development; • Transport infrastructure; • Tourism (services provided and infrastructure); • Social services and infrastructure (education, health, culture, social services).

5. Summary score of socio- economic development • Integral indicator; • To choose minimum indicators showing all major characteristics of the studied territorial units. • To develop a methodology that shows the combined influence of these indicators

6. Indicators • Coefficient of natural growth of the population • Coefficient of migration of the population • Employment coefficient • GDP per capita • Capital investments per capita • Number of nights spent by tourists per 1000 population

7. Indicators • Cultivated arable land per capita • Incomes per member of a household • Unemployment rate • Length of railways and roads per 1000 sq.km. • Share of university students in population • Medical doctors per 100 000 population

8. Steps for calculating the summary scores • Making the values of the individual indicators commensurate (BGN, %, dka,km, numbers); • For each indicator: • The territorial unit with the highest value becomes a benchmark = 100% • All the rest – get a % compared to the benchmark • The summary score for a territorial unit = average of the sum of its % for the individual indicators

9. Summary scores of socio-economic development of Bulgarian regions 9

10. Summary scores of socio-economic development of Bulgarian regions 10

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12. Disparities among the districts within the regions 12

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15. Conclusions for the regional policy • Two models of regional development are monitored: • Model 1: Center-periphery • At national level – SWR and the rest • At regional level – SWR, SCR, NER and the rest • At district level (central municipality and periphery) • Model 2: Bipolar model • At national level – Sofia and Varna • At regional level – SER (Burgas and Stara Zagora) • At district level (2 strong municipalities and the rest)

16. Conclusions for the regional policy • The disparities among regions and districts – arguments for implementing two types of regional policy: • Reducing disparities – directing resources towards underdeveloped districts • Development of growth centers - directing resources towards highly developed districts

17. What did the policy makers actually choose? • OPRD 2014-2020 • To support 67 cities and towns (centers of regions and municipalities) • Concentrating population • Concentrating technical and social infrastructure