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Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica EURO LM - Case studies

Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica EURO LM - Case studies Langen , 8th March 200 6 L T.Col. Teodoro La Rocca, Maj . Al essandro Fuccello. CONTENT. 1th C ase-study: Confluence Lines situation (3 October 2005)

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Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica EURO LM - Case studies

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  1. Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica EURO LM - Case studies Langen, 8th March 2006 LT.Col. TeodoroLa Rocca, Maj. Alessandro Fuccello

  2. CONTENT 1th Case-study:Confluence Lines situation (3 October 2005) 2nd Case-study: Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) (21 October 2005) 3rd Case-study: Tropopause anomaly Cyclogenesis ( 23 February 2006) over Jonian Sea

  3. Cold Front Confluence lines 1stCase-study Confluence Lines situation (3 October 2005) FI by jet Confluence lines

  4. FI by jet Comma Confluence lines Interpretation of precipitations (EURO-LM Model) Based on Conceptual Models

  5. Low rainfall overestimation EURO-LM locates well FI by jet High precipitation overestimation due to orographic effect. Model dynamic is good Strong convection line produces heavy rain well forecsted in intensity but not so in the space Dynamics very good (Cold Front and pre-frontal Confluence Lines ) Precipitations cumulated in 24 hours

  6. HRV VIS at 07 utc 2ndcase - study Mesoscale Convective System(MCS) (21 October 2005) HRV VIS at 15 utc HRV VIS at 12 utc

  7. T+12 T+15 T+18 21 OCTOBER 00 UTC Num. FC: Wind and pressure distribution

  8. MCSs Interpretation of precipitations Based on Conceptual Models

  9. Rainfall overstimation Dynamics good (MCS) but evolution and path were wrong Precipitations cumulated in 24 hours

  10. 3rd case - study (23 February 2006) Tropopause anomaly Cyclogenesis over Jonian Sea

  11. Heavy rain Forecasted Over Mid-adriatic Area, Calabria and Eastern Sicily

  12. 22 February 2006 – EURO LM

  13. 23 February 2006 – EURO LM

  14. Rainfall Observed Over Mid-adriatic Area (good estimation) Calabria and Eastern Sicily (over-estimation)

  15. CONCLUSIONS • Test case – studies discussed indicate good performances in EURO LM and LAMI precipitation forecasts related to dynamic synoptic patterns. • Problems arise in case of rainfall due to Mesoscale convective activity, mainly in the location of precipitation area. • Conceptual models seem to be promising for the interpretation and for the discussion of the results obtained by LM.

  16. Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica QUESTIONS ? PLEASE, CONTACT LT.Col Teodoro LA ROCCA larocca@meteoam.it Maj. Alessandro FUCCELO fuccello@meteoam.it T.Col. TeodoroLa Rocca, Magg. Alessandro Fuccello

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