Towards the Future of IT

1. Towards the Future of IT does the path lead through the cloud? Lutz Schubert, Institute of Information Resource Management, University of Ulm High Performance Computing Center Stuttgart

2. The Future of Information Technology A Little History Lesson “Where we cannot invent, we may at least improve.” Charles Caleb Colton

3. 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Uptake of the Internet number of users Introducing Load Balancing (milltions) number of hosts

4. 400 45 350 40 35 300 30 250 25 200 20 150 15 100 10 50 5 0 0 Uptake of the Internet number of users (milltions) number of hosts

5. 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Uptake of the Internet number of users Uptake of Outsourcing (milltions) number of hosts load balancing

6. 400 1000 350 300 800 250 600 200 150 400 100 200 50 0 0 Uptake of the Internet number of users (milltions) number of hosts

7. 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Uptake of the Internet number of users The Grid & Clouds (milltions) outsourcing number of hosts load balancing

8. 2000 1000 800 1500 600 1000 400 500 200 0 0 Uptake of the Internet number of users (milltions) number of hosts

9. 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Uptake of the Internet number of users ??? (milltions) grids & clouds number of hosts outsourcing load balancing

10. 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Uptake of the Internet number of users (milltions) heterogeneity grids & clouds number of hosts multicores smart phones outsourcing GPGPUs load balancing

11. At the same time… • The value of internet services keeps growing… Source: http://www.atkearney.com/paper/-/asset_publisher/dVxv4Hz2h8bS/content/internet-value-chain-economics/10192

12. Strong Increase • Mobility • Heterogeneity • Amount of Data • #Users The Trend Continues • More users (only 25% online now) • More devices (also the washing machine goes online) • More mobility, within and across borders • More global usage • Less Increase • Performance • Communication • Storage • (User) Expectations • Availability • Speed • Cost • Ease of use

13. A Quick Report from The Cloud Expert Group The Problems http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/docs/ future-cc-2may-finalreport-experts.pdf “All change is not growth; as all movement is not forward.” Ellen Glasgow

14. #1 Higher Availability through Dynamicity

15. #1 BUT Availability ≠ Speed

16. #1 Availability ≠ Speed 1 kB ~2ms* 1 GB ~10 mins* 1 TB ~1 week* 1 kB ~0.1 s* 1 GB ~1 day* 1 TB ~2 years* *purely theoretical value not allowing for average network load, different providers etc.

17. #2 Dynamicity vs. Security? Help, mydatais in China?

18. #3 The Whole Application Moves 1 kB ~2ms* 1 GB ~10 mins* 1 TB ~1 week* 1 kB ~0.1 s* 1 GB ~1 day* 1 TB ~2 years* *purely theoretical value not allowing for average network load, different providers etc.

19. #3 each part exhibits different needs… 1 kB ~2ms* 1 GB ~10 mins* 1 TB ~1 week* frequently accesseddata consistency? 1 kB ~0.1 s* 1 GB ~1 day* 1 TB ~2 years* rarelyaccesseddata

20. #3 … use them • Separate user input • Shared state / data • Highly volatile data • Compute intensive • Points of little dependencies • Google specific API call Bottleneck Can be replicated Needs specific resources

21. #3 … use them • Reduced resource cost • Not all application parts need to scale out fully (less resources) • Faster adaptation time (better dynamicity) • The individual requirements are lower (simpler resources) • Higher customer satisfaction • Better fulfillment of availability etc. • Trust & security through hybrid (public-private) clouds

22. double heatmap[10]; double heatmap_tmp[10]; #pragma func main() = heatspread( initmap( heatmap ) ) void main() { initmap(*heatmap); for (int iter=0; iter<100; iter++) // 100 iterations { heatspread(*heatmap); memcpy(heatmap, heatmap_tmp, 10) } Specifies output dependencies } } } Specifies input data dependencies #pragma func heatspread(heatmap) = zipWith (+) (heatcell( neighbours(heatmap) )) (heatmap) void heatspread (double** heatmap) { Specifies for (int x=0; x<10; y++) workflow { double dphi = heatcell( neighbours(heatmap, x) ); heatmap_tmp[x] = heatmap[x] + dphi; } } ... #4 Programmability

23. #5 Federation / Cloud-Bursting ?

24. Conclusions http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/ssai/docs/cloud-expert-group/ roadmap-dec2012-vfinal.pdf “My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.” Charles F. Kettering

25. Cloud Development Roadmap demanding services on the fly federated & merged clouds bring your own device rich composed services collaboration eEngineering brokering personal clouds sensor clouds mobile clouds eGovernment carry your environment auto-composition eHealth eScience exascale new resources BYOD personalisation globalisation service-centric huge data new IT mid term long term short term

26. The Future is Cloudy? • Future environments are • Even more heterogeneous on all levels (specialisation) • Even more widely dispersed (global mobility) • Large scale with little performance per unit (multicore) • Demanding more complex usage scenarios • Clouds are a first reaction to this paradigm change • They are not the FINAL solution • But they are a necessary transition into the future

27. THANKS FOR LISTENING Lutz Schubert Institute of Resource Management, University of Ulm lutz.schubert@uni-ulm.de

28. #4 Programmability (2) ① ②

29. #4 Programmability (2) ②

30. #4 Programmability (2)

31. #4 Programmability (2)