The Future (of IT)

1. The Future (of IT) Steve Prentice GVP & Chief of Research Hardware & Systems Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — quote.requests@gartner.com.

2. The Paperless Office …….? Not yet! But introducing ….

3. Semiconductor Technology — Creating the 'Perfect (Digital) Storm' 2006> 10 billion processorsshipped p.a. 2009Disk shipments exceed 200 ExaBytes per annum 2012Installed base of processors > 200 billion ??'s Law (More Storage Capacity) Moore's Law (More Computing Power) Increasing Integration Chips become more complex and more general purpose ("system on a chip") Gilder's Law (More Bandwidth) Metcalfe's Law(More Valuable Networks) Note: 1 Exabyte = 1 million Terabytes

4. Technology Trend #1:The Consumerization of Technology

5. Technology: Defining what is AVAILABLE — Increasing price performance Commoditisation/Consumerisation Societal: Describing what we DESIRE — IT-enabled lifestyle, growing automation, Knowledge work,rise of individualism The Problem with Infrastructure Organisation: Dictating what is REQUIRED — Flexibility and agility become paramount • "organisation" to "organism" • "local suppliers" to "globally sourced" • "command and control" to "sense and respond" • "internal control" to "transparency and regulation"

6. IT virtualizationis the pooling of IT resources in a way that masks the physical nature and boundaries of those resources from resource users. Technology Trend #2:Virtualisation of Infrastructure Scale Up Scale Out

7. IT’S All OVER ! Demand Increasing Abstraction via Virtualisation and Wrapping virtual Systems with System governors And increased Automation - Policy-based - Service Oriented - Active Management Service Governor Financial Abstraction Optimization App. App. App. App. Policies • IT service definitions • Service agreements • Business priorities Services • That meet business requirements Ownership was the only option Virtualization Meta OS Network Real-Time Infrastructure Provisioning Workloads/Data OS OS I/O I/O HW I/O HW I/O Automation Resources Availability Identities/Security Resources Technology Trend #3:From Products to Services

8. Service Portfolio Management Integration Platform Web Services Other Services Invoice Billing Price NewServices Packaged Services, Wrapped Legacy Orchestration Services Business Process Portfolio SOBA – Service-Oriented (and Event-Driven) Business Applications BPM BAM ProcessMaps … Process View SES APS CEP … SODA – Service-Oriented Development of Applications ? App. View ISE BPA WS* WSM Construction View Technology Trend #4:It’s Software Jim, but not as we know it! The Coming Ecosystem Wars! The emergence of an Adaptive Business Process Platform

9. I’m Here! Technology Trend #5:Welcome to the Wireless World! • Enabling wireless technologies • Zigbee, Bluetooth for nodes now, UWB and NFC later (with autolocation) • 802.11 for “edges” • WiMAX backbone • Shrinking “Smart” Objects • Cheap, small devices • Everything gets a radio • Self-assembling mesh networks • Location aware (lat., long., alt., time) • Plum size >>>>> Smart Pills • Delivering an “Always On” Society

10. Quantum Science Nanotechnology Peer-to-Peer communications ……? Rat Brain Flys Jet! Crossbar Latch set to replace Transistor Sony takes 3-D cinemadirectly to the brain Technology Trend #6,7,8,9,…..The Next Big Thing? Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from Magic! Arthur C. Clarke (1962)

11. Visibility Peak of Inflated Trough of Slope of Plateau of Technology Expectations Disillusionment Enlightenment Productivity Trigger Maturity The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies Key: Time to Plateau 802.16d WiMAX Unified Communications Less than two years Semantic Web UWB/803.15.3a/WiMedia Linux on Desktop for Two to five years Mainstream Business Users Five to 10 years External MPP Grids More than 10 years Inkjet Processes LEPs/OLEDs Speech Recognition for Mobile Devices Service-Oriented Architecture Micro Fuel Cells Electronic Ink/Digital Paper Really Simple Syndication Social Network Analysis Speech Web-Services-Enabled Business Models Recognition for Wikis Telephony and Information Extraction Internal Mesh Networks — Sensor Call Center MPP Mesh Networks — Wide Area Grids Augmented Reality Trusted Computing Group Instant Messaging RFID (Case/Pallet) RFID (Item) VoIP Internal Web Services Tablet PC Smartphone Location Truth Verification "Aware" Services Wi-Fi Molecular Hot Transistors Computer-Brain Interface/ Spots Thought Recognition Protein-DNA Logic As of July 2004

12. Technology: • Defining what is AVAILABLE — • Commoditisation/Consumerisation • Virtualisation • Pervasive Connectivity • APPLIANCES • Societal: • Describing what we DESIRE • Individualism/Collaboration • “Do it Myself” - Personal • Work/leisure • CONTROL Organisation: Dictating what is REQUIRED • "command and control" to "sense and respond" • Process, Standardisation, Repeatabilty • Externalisation & Services • AGILITY The WayThings Work!

13. The Future (of IT) Steve Prentice GVP & Chief of Research Hardware & Systems Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with Gartner’s official approval. Such approvals may be requested via e-mail — quote.requests@gartner.com.