Predicting the Future by Understanding Current and Past Students

1. Predicting the Future by Understanding Current and Past Students TASFAA April 2014

2. Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia. Objective Importance of data analysis on YOUR campus and how it links to greater retention, improved graduation rates and enhanced repayment.

3. What is analytics?

4. “Analytics is the use of data, statistical analysis, and explanatory predictive models to gain insights and to act on complex issues.” Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

5. Current Environment

6. 1 in every 4 students leaves college Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

7. ½of freshmen drop out Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

8. $13.3 Million Lost to Attrition Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

9. $6.2 billion in state appropriated funds Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

10. State allocations changing -- supporting graduation Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

11. Sound business principles emphasize higher education institutions much focus on retaining students to generate an acceptable rate of return to maintain financial viability. Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

12. The Starting Point …Analytics

13. Introducing… Tom And, Molly Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

14. What you should know about analytics Analytics: • Provide evaluation of data to determine patterns • Helps mine and connect vast amounts of information • Are being used a schools nation-wide • Offer a predictive view of upcoming challenges • Make available a means to target available resources Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

15. Objective Importance of data analysis on YOUR campus and how it links to greater retention, improved graduation rates and enhanced repayment. Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

16. Data is used to identify trends to improve student success

17. Four Step Process Step 2 Define Research Questions Step 1 Build Data Warehouse Step 3 Modeling & Reports Step 4 Tracking Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

18. STEP 1: Building a Data Warehouse of Student Information The process starts with organizing your student data Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

19. STEP 2: Define Your Research Project and Analyze Data Turn raw data into meaningful information Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

20. Your school’s data can help you answer important questions • What has been the impact of various recruiting strategies and/or policies on bringing students to campus? • What are the best high schools, counties and states to target for producing graduates? What characteristics make up our recruiting efficiency profile? • Where did students go who were admitted but did not matriculate? • Which strategies have produced the most enrollees and graduates? What has happened to the "Trustee Admits"? • How much does your institution spend in institutional aid to produce a successful graduate? How much is wasted on dropouts? • What are the characteristics of successful graduates versus dropouts? What high school GPA and ACT levels does it really take to be successful at your institution? Which is more important? • Which majors produce the most graduates? Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

21. STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling Custom reports that provide detail and analytics to make strategic decisions Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

22. STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling Inceptia examples: • Financial Aid Statistical Reports Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

23. STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling Inceptia examples: • Enrollment Management Reports Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

24. STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling • Predictive modeling uses past information to help predict the future • Rank students by degree of risk and identify risk factors for each student – early intervention is key • Effectively use your resources to ensure the greatest results with students Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

25. STEP 3: Benchmark Reports and Predictive Modeling Inceptia examples: • Student Success Profile Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

26. STEP 4: Ongoing Analysis to Measure Success Effective research and analytics is not “one and done” Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

27. Building a Culture of Inquiry

28. Roadblocks • Affordability • Expenses of staff, training and tools • Re-directing current resources • Accountability requirements mean IR is focused on reporting • Data • Data quality, data ownership, data access and data standardization Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

29. Creating Success • Map out strategy and planning • Look for an early win • Invest in people over tools • Don’t wait for perfection • Partnerships and communication are key • Plan for an infrastructure that supports analytics • Benchmark to provide context Confidential. Do not copy or redistribute without expressed written permission from Inceptia.

30. Default Prevention: Enhanced Data Studies

31. What Do We Do? We Don’t … • Don’t get lost in everyone else’s assumptions • Don’t guess • Don’t rationalize • Don’t pretend default is going away Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

32. What We Can Do Is Establish The Facts!! • Examine the Past • Study the Present 32 Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

33. Borrower Data Sources • Available with CDR package in both cycles • Contains data about borrowers from both Direct Loans and FFEL • Historical data • Extract & Report format • May be ordered as a file in NSLDS Loan Record Detail Report School Portfolio Report Available by request or scheduled in NSLDS Contains data about borrowers from both Direct Loans and FFEL Includes more data fields than LRDR 2 Extract formats available Contains data for 6 years Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

34. Default Aversion Options 34 Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

35. Loan Record Detail Report Student identifiers Loan info: Status, Claim reason code if in default and CDR default date, when the loan went into repayment, beginning and ending dates of loan period, type, guarantor and amount of the loan Enrollment reporting info: Last reported status for the borrower and date of the reported status Usage code for CDR: Denominator, numerator, eligible not counted, neither Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

36. Borrower Data School Portfolio Report • Examine the Past • Study the Present • Look to the Future 36 Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

37. School Portfolio Data (SPR) • Student identifiers • Loan info: Status, Claim reason code if in default and CDR default date, when the loan went into repayment, beginning and ending dates of loan period, type, guarantor and amount of the loan • Enrollment reporting info: Last reported status for the borrower and date of the reported status; academic level • Expanded lender, servicer, and guarantor data including original and current • Interest rate • Repayment plan • Principal & Interest • R2T4, if applicable • Delinquency • Deferment & Forbearance • Rehabilitation • Consolidation • PLUS Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

38. Using The Data • Examine the Past • Study the Present • Look to the Future • Plan based on Facts 38 Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

39. Making Plans for Future Cohorts • Delinquency • Repayment Plans • Consolidation • Rehabilitation 39 Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

40. Enhanced Default PreventionData Studies Establishes your Patterns and Trends Needs Consistent Reviewing Points the Direction for Default Prevention Strategies Tennessee Student Assistance Corporation

41. Questions 41

42. Paul Mittelhammer VP Business Development National Strategy 404-929-0251 paulm@inceptia.org Inceptia.org

43. Cherry D. Johnson TSAC Default Aversion Field Representative 731-607-9564 cherry.johnson@tn.gov tn.gov/tsac

44. Thank you!