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Predicting current and future tree diversity in the Pacific Northwest

I R S S. Predicting current and future tree diversity in the Pacific Northwest. Richard Waring 1 & Nicholas Coops 2 1 Oregon State University 2 University of British Columbia. Quantum / Radiation Use Efficiency. x. x. PAR. PAR. GPP & NPP. Process-based Model of GPP & NPP.

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Predicting current and future tree diversity in the Pacific Northwest

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  1. I R S S Predicting current and future tree diversity in the Pacific Northwest Richard Waring1 & Nicholas Coops2 1 Oregon State University 2 University of British Columbia

  2. Quantum / Radiation Use Efficiency x x PAR PAR GPP & NPP Process-based Model of GPP & NPP Environmental Modifiers VPD Tmin SoilWater Additional 3-PGS Modifiers Frost Rainfall

  3. Environmental constraints on photosynthesis for Douglas-firin the Pacific NW, U.S.A. soil water evaporative demand suboptimal temperature Frost limitations

  4. Current environmental constraints on photosynthesis for Douglas-fir in British Columbia, Canada Soil drought Evaporative demand (D) Suboptimal temperature Frost frequency

  5. Species differences in sensitivity to environment evaporative demand soil drought Suboptimal temperature frost sensitivity

  6. Different adaptations sort environmental distributions of NW tree species

  7. Defining different species environmental tolerances in reference to Douglas-fir Drought adverse Drought tolerant Frost tolerant Sitka spruce lodgepole pine Ponderosa pine

  8. 3737 USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory & Analysis Plots

  9. Current range predictions (left) vs. FIA plots data(right)of western hemlock(upper) and Sitka spruce (lower)

  10. Current Range Predictions (left) and FIA plot locations (right) for ponderosa pine (upper) and lodgepole pine (lower)

  11. Reported range of lodgepole pine in B.C. Little’s range map Present on field plots

  12. Model predicts progressive reduction in range of lodgepole pine with environment favoring other species in BC 2080 2050 2020

  13. Summary • Process-based models weight environment limitations as they affect photosynthesis and growth • Approach simplified by relating to most widely distributed species • Decision trees analysis automatically defines environmental thresholds for different species • Predictions of present range good, and potential to predict future ranges, taking into account competition with other species.

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