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Accident Rate

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Accident Rate

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  1. What is Causing the Lower Aviation Accident/Incident Rate? Can We Correlate Improved Safety Records to the Global Safety Agenda?Cooperative Efforts Are Driving Down the Accident RateRobert Matthews, Ph.D.FAA Office of Accident InvestigationMichael Romanowski, Ph.D.Aerospace Industries AssociationU.S./Europe International Safety ConferencePhiladelphiaJune 7 - 11, 2004

  2. Accident rates in US and Western Europe have dropped dramatically over the years Current accident rates are incredibly low Challenge is to drive them lower US Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2004 Accidents Per Million Flight Hours Accident Rate Fatal Accident Rate Note: 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through May, 2004.

  3. History shows new capabilities & appropriately focused actions reduce accident rate New fleet (L-049, DC-6 & B-377) Earliest ILS (Glide slope, LOC & markers) First VOR (1950), then DME Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2003 Radar introduced at selected towers Vickers-700 Turboprop (1953 in UK, 1856 US) DC-7 (1955), Lockheed Electra Radio contact, ATC centers & cruise aircraft 1949-55 Long-Range radar (Centers) Jet Engine; 707 (1958) & DC-8 VOR/DME integrated into autopilot (precision approaches) Secondary radar FMS Wind shear detection CRM & 6-Axis simulator & FDR Cabin safety Flight envelope protection Major Fatal Accidents Per Million Departures RNAV (processing VOR/DME & basic Instruments) GPWS, TCAS Early automation FOQA/ASAP programs Large-scale RJ insertion Cooperative safety agendas Year

  4. Introduction of regional jets illustrates the dynamic system Regional Jets Turboprops ≤ 34 seats Turboprops > 34 seats Last new order (for 10) Nov ‘97 US Part 121 In-service fleet EOY 2004 is projected, based on Airclaims data through May 13, 2004.

  5. Focused action and new capability dramatically reduced mid-air collisions Number of Fatal Mid-airs Years

  6. Wind Shear Accidents DC-9 Charlotte 7/2/94 727 Denver 8/7/75 727 New Orleans 7/9/82 DC-10 Faro 12/21/92 DC-9 Philadelphia 6/23/76 727 Doha 3/14/79 L1011 Dallas-ft. Worth 8/2/85 707 Pago Pago 1/30/74 Focused action led to dramatic reduction in wind shear accidents Training/ Pilot Guide Reactive Wind shear Systems Enhancements R Predictive Wind shear Systems 1970 75 80 90 2000 85 95

  7. FSF CFIT/ALAR Industry effort starts CAST/JSSI begins PAAST begins Cooperative efforts are bringing accident rate down Hull Loss Accident Rate Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs, non-CIS) Through 31 December 2002 2.00 5 year running average 1.60 1.20 Rate per million departures 0.80 0.40 0.00 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

  8. Fully implementing the CAST plan will lead to a 73% overall risk reduction by 2007 Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 100% Risk Eliminated 90% Risk Remaining 80% 70% 60% Portion of Risk 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Evac Total CFIT Midair LOC Flt Crew Inc LOC GND Eng-UCEF Sys-Comp Turbulence Fire/Explosion Runway Collision CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded.

  9. CAST Goals • Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 • Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

  10. CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry Government AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF • DOD • FAA • Aircraft Certification • Flight Standards • System Safety • Air Traffic Operations • Research • NASA • ICAO** • JAA • TCC • NATCA** • NTSB** Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA** * Representing GE and RR ** Observer

  11. CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) • Data analyses • Safety enhancement development • Master safety plan • Enhancement effectiveness • Future areas of study

  12. Generic model for achieving long term accident rate reduction Training SOPs Maximize existing systems Proactive data management AccidentRate Design solutions Time

  13. Robust CAST Methodology • Detailed event sequence - problem identification from worldwide accidents and incidents • CVR • DFDR • NTSB reports, etc. • Broad based teams (45-50 specialists/team) • > 800 problem statements • 752 interventions proposed • Packaged into 87 system enhancements • Analyzed for effectiveness and synergy • 47 enhancements adopted

  14. CAST process led to integrated strategic safety plan • Part 121 or equivalent passenger and cargo operations studied • Current CAST plan: • 47 Prioritized Safety Enhancements • 8 R&D projects and 2 studies • Projected 73% fatality risk reduction by 2007 • Industry and Government implementing plan • ATA (20 operators), RAA (47), NACA (13) plus non-aligned (35)

  15. Resources vs. risk reduction highlights the need for prioritized approach 100% 10 Risk Reduction APPROVED PLAN $ 9 Total Cost in $ (Millions) 8 75% 7 6 Risk Eliminated $ Resource Cost ($ Billions) 50% 5 2007 2020 4 3 25% 2 1 $ $ $ 0% 0 All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Completed Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) CAST-050

  16. Prioritized safety makes good economic sense Cost Savings Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents 100 Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 80 Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Dollars/Flt. Cyc 60 73% Fatality Risk Reduction 40 20 Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels 0 2002 2007

  17. CAST Safety Plan • 25 Completed Safety Enhancements • Safety Culture • Maintenance Procedures • Flight Crew Training • Air Traffic Controller Training • Uncontained Engine Failures • Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) • Standard Operating Procedures • Precision Approaches • Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems • Proactive Safety Programs (e.g., FOQA, ASAP)

  18. CAST Safety Plan (cont.) • 21 Committed Safety Enhancements • Policies and Procedures • Aircraft Design • Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) • Runway Incursion Prevention • Precision Approaches (additional projects) • 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

  19. PAI/RNP will lead to large safety & efficiency improvements Key elements of Performance-based NAS & CAST initiatives • Performance-based NAS: Communication, Navigation & Surveillance with much greater accuracy & reliability than system has today • Most profound change in near future • Enable precisely defined, computer generated flight path • Tightly defined envelope - unprecedented accuracy • Performance requirements will vary for airspace and phase of flight • more efficient use of en-route & terminal airspace • Increased capacity • reduced separation • new approaches enabled • Time & fuel savings

  20. PAI/RNP will lead to large safety & efficiency improvements Key elements of Performance-based NAS & CAST initiatives CAST PAI/RNP enhancements • Supports Performance-based NAS • Individual safety contribution: 15% reduction in risk for US when fully implemented • Targets CFIT and Loss of Control type accidents • Exploit aircraft’s inherent capability – Classic, standard or advanced aircraft • Vertical Angles – applicable to all aircraft regardless of technology • Eliminate step-down approach • Enable improved “constant angle/constant rate” approach • Fosters stabilized approaches and descents to the runway • Approved approaches established at 84% of US airports

  21. PAI/RNP will lead to large safety & efficiency improvements Key elements of Performance-based NAS & CAST initiatives CAST PAI/RNP enhancements • Three-dimensional navigational (3D RNAV) – Standard and advanced airplanes • Increased precision • Minimums & charting specs - to allow for improved stabilized descents to runways. • Required Navigational Performance (RNP) – Advanced airplanes • Guidance to allow airlines to use reduced landing minimums on all properly-equipped airplanes • Extension of these procedures will • reduce the risk of an accident from impact with terrain while on descent • improve the ability of airplanes to land in marginal conditions. • xLS – All airplanes • Requirements for the installation of laterally- and vertically-guided approach paths being developed • For runways currently without an Instrument Landing System (ILS). xLS approaches will provide improved safety during landing

  22. CAST entered loop in 1997/98 Monitor Identify Prioritize Frequency Emerging risk due to system change Resolve Time CAST metrics to ensure implementation and effectiveness; identify areas for additional action Exploiting FOQA-type data can bring powerful system benefits

  23. Summary • History shows focused action and introduction of new capabilities led to large accident rate reduction • CAST enhancements focus a resource-effective strategy to maximize accident rate reduction • Implementation well along • 73% reduction expected by 2007 • 40-50% reduction estimated to date • Transition to detailed data sharing will lead to further safety benefits • U.S. experiencing a 78% reduction in commercial fatal accident rate from the 1997 baseline • More metrics required to establish firm linkage between CAST program and demonstrated accident rate reduction • However, circumstance suggests there is a correlation

  24. Cooperative safety agendas are flourishing around the world COSCAP CIS Underway JSSI 35 SEs 5 SEs to EASA 11 complete 62% reduction COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 9 SEs on plan 4 SEs in review CAST 46 SEs 25 complete 21 in work 73% reduction ASET Underway PAAST CFIT, ALAR & RI SE-23 + We encourage everyone to support these worthwhile activities

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