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Secession and Self-Determination

Secession and Self-Determination. Difference of focus: 1.      Identity (Ethnic, national, state) level 2.      Cultural nationalism (voluntary associations, religion, civil society) 3.      Political mobilization: parties

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Secession and Self-Determination

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  1. Secession and Self-Determination

  2. Difference of focus: 1.      Identity (Ethnic, national, state) level 2.      Cultural nationalism (voluntary associations, religion, civil society) 3.      Political mobilization: parties 4.      Political action: Timing, strategy, tactics, violence question. 5.      Role of International Context becomes Important as a constraining or enabling factor. (Resources, Recognition, Military opposition or support)

  3. Secession and Self-Determination • Multi-ethnic States • Secession/separatism vs Self-determination • Latter need not imply a desire to break free: • Federalism - group representation at institutions of centre; power to federal unit • Devolution of powers: legislature, symbols/culture, taxation, military • Self-Determination aims not inevitable (60% of 285); Violent rebellion even less so (25% of self-determination cases)

  4. Nationalism and Secession • Role of ideology of nationalism • Culture and politics should be congruent • 'Foreign' rule illegitimate • Separate state within an international system of states • Trappings of state • 'Copycat' contagion effect in 'waves'

  5. Nations and Secession • Primary ethnic groups rather than secondary • Integration often prelude to agitation, as ethnie becomes nation • Fewer attempts at secession prior to the modern period • More 'backward' secessionists often suffer more splinter movements

  6. Horowitz' Theory (1985) • Domestic forces key in fomenting separatism (ethnic conflict, etc) • International forces key in success • Confluence of region and group advancedness/backwardness conditions secession • Role of precipitants • Conflicts with advanced seceders more clear-cut

  7. The Role of Economic Motives • Advanced look at contribution, Backward look at GNP inequity • Instrumentalist view • Older view: 'internal colonialism' (Nairn) favours poorer • Recent approach: ethnic entrepreneurialism, favours better off (Hechter) • Possibility: money counts, so advanced groups secede from poorer, while backward groups think they can do better

  8. Ethno-Symbolist View • Ethno-symbolist view - if money counts, why would a poor group secede? A shaky foundation • Role of symbolic conflicts (Horowitz) • Katanga secession splits into N and S movements Lunda/Bayeke vs Baluba

  9. New Quantitative Research • New Quantitative studies based on large datasets and statistical techniques (esp. MAR dataset) • Coding is a weak spot • Statistical problems due to chicken-egg problems and lack of good time-series • Many missing variables • Can state the obvious

  10. Major Factors: Group Organisation & Cohesion (membership of groups & mobilisation) Change in Communication Technology(landline growth) Minor Factors Demographic Stress Geographic Concentration Separatist Kin Political Discrimination (-) Factors Causing Self-Determination Movements (Gurr & Quinn 2003)

  11. Factors Causing Secession (Ayres & Saideman 2000) • Group Geographic Concentration • Separatist Kin • Contagion from regional protest movements • Tenuous link to Gurr study through importance of compact, mobilised base and separatist kin • Points to role of primary ethnicity rather than secondary • Horowitz' factors more central when it comes to violence

  12. Irridentism • Irridentism: unredeemed • Irredentism involves a kind of separation, but there may be no desire for subunit to join with irridentist state • Types: • ethno-historical • geo-political (Falkland Is.; Ceuta) • historical-suzerainty (W. Sahara, W. Irian, Tibet)

  13. Irridentism • Irredentists less likely to press claims if they feel they'll wind up in a more hostile state • Irridentism more likely if ethnic kin are engaged in separatism or dominate a nearby state (Saideman/Ayres 2000) • Irridentism less likely for ethnic than civic nations (Saideman & Ayres 2008)

  14. Ethnie versus Nation • Secession raises theoretical question about pull of ethnicity versus 'artificial' nations (esp. Africa) • Ethnic nationalism usually drives secession, but not always. Can be political, regional (Confederacy, Venezuela, Eritrea) Or partly both (Vojvodina)

  15. Instrumentalist Perspective • Instrumentalists look to institutional (Brubaker 1996) or interest-based (Hechter, Breuilly, Gellner) explanations for minority secession • Power vacuum, weakening of established parties (i.e. ex-USSR) • Monetary gain (i.e. Biafra, Scotland)

  16. Ethno-Symbolist & Primordialist Perspectives • Ethno-symbolists emphasise 'blueprint' of ethnic group myths, mental maps and memories • Ethnic groups will be more emotionally resonant than state • Secession likely if practical conditions allow, especially under impetus of nationalist ideology • Primordialists: relatedness conditions trust, but unclear where boundaries will fall. More and more difficult as governing unit grows

  17. Conclusion • When nationalists turns to concrete politico-territorial goals, self-determination is the quest • Self-Determination aims not inevitable ; Violent rebellion even less so • Factors related to a group's degree of integration are central (geographical compactness, communication, mobilisation by associations)

  18. Conclusion… • Grievances play more of a role in violence than mere nationalist self-determination • Evidence does not support instrumentalist explanations for nationalist self-determination, though poverty related to levels of violent conflict • Some aspects support modernist account (i.e. integration as key), others favour ethno-symbolists (i.e. lost autonomy, separatist kin)

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