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Kurt M. Guidry

Outlook For Louisiana’s Row Crop Sector. 2010 LSU AgCenter’s Outlook Conference. Kurt M. Guidry. Gilbert Durbin Professor. LSU AgCenter Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness. Brief Review Of 2009. Lower Prices For Most Commodities.

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Kurt M. Guidry

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  1. Outlook For Louisiana’s Row Crop Sector 2010 LSU AgCenter’s Outlook Conference Kurt M. Guidry Gilbert Durbin Professor LSU AgCenter Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

  2. Brief Review Of 2009 • Lower Prices For Most Commodities • Lower Input Costs Lead By Fuel and Fertilizer • Early Season Rains Delayed Much of Midwest Production • Early Season Drought Followed By Late Season Rains • Impacted Much of the Delta • Two Consecutive Years Of Weather Related Production • Difficulties Has Severely Impacted Much Of The Louisiana • Row Crop Sector

  3. Where Have We Been?

  4. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

  5. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

  6. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

  7. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

  8. Source: USDA, Economics Research Service

  9. Fundamental Supply and Demand Situations

  10. Source: USDA, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, January 2010

  11. Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service

  12. Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service

  13. Source: USDA, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, January 2010

  14. Source: USDA, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, January 2010

  15. Source: USDA, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, January 2010

  16. Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service

  17. Source: USDA, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates, January 2010

  18. Source: USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service

  19. Can’t Forget About The Economy: Significant In Influencing Demand For Commodities But Also For Influencing Investment In Commodity Markets

  20. Source: Kansas City Federal Reserve

  21. Source: Kansas City Federal Reserve

  22. Source: Kansas City Federal Reserve

  23. Current and Seasonal Price Trends

  24. Source: DTN Online

  25. Source: DTN Online

  26. Where Are We Going? • Continued Acreage Shifts • Corn - ↑ • Soybeans - ↑ • Rice - ↔, ↑ • Cotton - ↔,↑ • Wheat - ↓ • Sugarcane - ↔ • Short Term – Strong Demand For Many Commodities and • Competition For Acres Could Provide Some Support • Long Term – Increases In Production (Both Domestically • and Internationally) Could Limit Price Potential • Wildcard Continues To Be Economic Recovery

  27. Input Costs

  28. Source: Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency

  29. Source: DTN Online

  30. Summary • Markets Must Deal With Growing Supplies and Uncertain • Demand • Despite Increases In Fuel Prices, Year to Year Reductions in • Fertilizer and Other Input Prices Project Lower Overall • Production Costs • Commodity Prices Still Remain At Historically Strong • Levels • Prospects For Profitability Remains With Returns To • “Normal” Production Levels

  31. Thank You Any Questions?

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