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ASSESSMENT OF FDI ATTRACTIVENESS: AN ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) APPROACH. SERCIN SAHIN Yıldız Technical University, Department of Economics sercinsahin@hotmail.com ÖZGÜR ŞENER İstanbul Technical University , Department of Industrial Engineering thesener@yahoo.com.
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ASSESSMENT OF FDI ATTRACTIVENESS:AN ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) APPROACH SERCIN SAHIN Yıldız Technical University, Department of Economics sercinsahin@hotmail.com ÖZGÜR ŞENER İstanbul Technical University, Department of Industrial Engineering thesener@yahoo.com
Overview of the presentation • Overview of Foreign Direct Investment • Data: UNCTAD FDI Variables • Method: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • Results • Conclusion • Further Suggestions
2.What is Foreign Direct Investment? • Green-field investment • Mergers and acquisition
2.What is Foreign Direct Investment? • Capital stock • Know-how • Technology
2.What is Foreign Direct Investment? • Benefits for Host Country • Increase in Employment • Increase in Exports • Increase in Government Revenues • Trigger Local Investment (suppliers, distribution channels) • Technology Transfer • Improvement of Management and Labor Skills • Increase in International Competitiveness of Local Firms
3.Data: UNCTAD FDI Variables UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
3.Data: UNCTAD FDI Variables • The UNCTAD Inward FDI Performance Index INDi= The Inward FDI Performance Index of the “i”th country FDIi= FDI inflows in the “i”th country FDIw = World FDI inflows GDPi = GDP in the “i”th country GDPw = World GDP.
3.Data: UNCTAD FDI Variables The UNCTAD Inward FDI Potential Index is the unweighted average of the scores on twelve variables (Independent Variables) for each country.
4.Method: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) • A multi criteria decision making method • Designed by Saaty(1980).
4.Method: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Pair-wise comparisons between variables
Correlations between “UNCTAD Inward FDI Performance Index” and “FDI determinants that are used to calculate “UNCTAD FDI Potential Index (Criterion)
4.Method: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Eigenvalue vector as the weights of the determinants
5.Conclusions • In this study it is not attempted to define what are the true determinants of FDI. • But rather tried to weight the determinants which are used to compute UNCTAD’s FDI Inward Potential Index to make the analysis more reliable • And AHP may be an appropriate technique for weighting the determinants.
6.Further Suggestions • Proxies which UNCTAD uses may not indicate the real FDI potential of the countries. Therefore, some other variables should be added to make the analysis more accurate: • Tax rates • Labor and energy costs, • Incentives • Property rights • Corruption, etc.