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This report provides an overview of the recent rainfall and current conditions of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes predictions for the monsoon and summarizes the climatology of precipitation patterns. Data and forecasts are provided for the past 90 days, 30 days, and 7 days.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 08, 2016 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts was generally at near normal levels across India, was a mixed pattern across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, the Philippines and over Indonesia. However, eastern China had received excessively above normal rainfall, while Papa New Guinea and northern Australia had generally received below normal rainfall, except sporadically there were some above normal spots.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall situation is very similar to the recent 90 days, except that the rainfall deficit over the Philippines, Papa New Guinea and northern Australia is more severe.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, rainfall over the entire has been generally below normal, including southeastern China consistent with the forecast where it was consistently above normal for the past several weeks (see 90 day and 30 maps). Rainfall over northern Australia was also below normal this past week.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts was generally at near normal levels across India, was a mixed pattern across the southern and east Asia monsoon region, the Philippines and over Indonesia. However, eastern China had received excessively above normal rainfall, while Papa New Guinea and northern Australia had generally received below normal rainfall, except sporadically there were some above normal spots. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation is very similar to the recent 90 days, except that the rainfall deficit over the Philippines, Papa New Guinea and northern Australia is more severe. In this past week, rainfall over the entire has been generally below normal, including southeastern China consistent with the forecast where it was consistently above normal for the past several weeks (see 90 day and 30 maps). Rainfall over northern Australia was also below normal this past week. In the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is predicting generally below normal rainfall across the entire winter monsoon regions, particularly over Australia.
