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Forecasting Gusts in EVENTS

Forecasting Gusts in EVENTS. Meteorology 415 Fall 2012. Wind Gusts. The wind is never constant (in velocity or direction), however gusts are only recorded for speeds > 10kts.

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Forecasting Gusts in EVENTS

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  1. Forecasting Gusts in EVENTS Meteorology 415 Fall 2012

  2. Wind Gusts • The wind is never constant (in velocity or direction), however gusts are only recorded for speeds > 10kts. • Squall A strong wind characterized by a sudden onset in which the wind speed increases at least 16 knots and is sustained at 22 knots or more for at least one minute.

  3. Wind Gusts • There are three main contributors to the gustiness of the wind: • The strength of the pressure gradient • The change in the pressure gradient field • The depth of mixing

  4. Wind Gusts • Strength of the pressure gradient: In Pennsylvania: 4mb = 7-14kts 8mb = 10-20kts 12mb = 15-25kts 16mb= 20-30kts 20mb= 25-35 kts

  5. Wind Gusts Change in the Pressure Gradient: Isallobaric Component of the wind

  6. Mixing from Aloft

  7. NAM 4km is a very good tool for short range wind forecasts: http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~glmp/glmp_expr.php

  8. Wind Gusts – use DMO

  9. Wind Gusts • Remember strongest winds tend to occur during the daytime with a maximum around the time of max heating. • In order to mix down strong winds, the flow must be aligned directionally. • A rapidly deepening low pressure system will produce stronger winds over a wider area than an intense, but old low. • Convection can produce strong winds, but it is highly variable.

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