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Thunderstorm Forecasting in NYC

Thunderstorm Forecasting in NYC . Christina Speciale, Rutgers University Dr. Steven Decker, Rutgers University Brandon Hertell, Consolidated Edison. Agenda. Introduction Hypothesis Methodology Results Summary Future Work. Introduction. Introduction.

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Thunderstorm Forecasting in NYC

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  1. Thunderstorm Forecasting in NYC Christina Speciale, Rutgers University Dr. Steven Decker, Rutgers University Brandon Hertell, Consolidated Edison

  2. Agenda • Introduction • Hypothesis • Methodology • Results • Summary • Future Work

  3. Introduction

  4. Introduction • Meteorologists use atmospheric variables to forecast potential thunderstorm development & strength • Atmosphere measured 2x daily via weather balloon • 8am & 8pm (EDT) (12z & 00z)

  5. Introduction • Variables provide insight to the state of the atmosphere • Standard ranges for these variables have been developed to forecast severe thunderstorms • Applied uniformly

  6. Hypothesis

  7. Hypothesis Are standard t-storm variable ranges relevant in the NYC area? Potential customization of variables? Where and when do NYC t-storms occur? Synoptic features present? 7

  8. Methodology

  9. Methodology • Build severe thunderstorm database • Events 2006-2009 • Within or near ConEdison service territory • Must include one or more of the following conditions • 58mph or above wind gusts • ¾”+ hail • Spawn tornado • Goal was 30 events, found 39

  10. Methodology Albany Buffalo Chatham Upton Pittsburgh Sterling Sounding Locations Surface Analysis • Collect atmospheric and surface weather data • National Weather Service (NWS) • Storm Prediction Center (SPC) • Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) 10

  11. Methodology • Organized and sorted data by • Time and location • Atmospheric variables • Synoptic features • Significant weather observed

  12. Results

  13. ResultsStability

  14. ResultsThunderstorm Type

  15. ResultsThunderstorm Type Con’t

  16. Results 16

  17. Results

  18. Results 18

  19. Results-Synoptic Features 19

  20. Summary

  21. Summary • Standard atmospheric variable ranges do not always apply in NYC • 2 of 7 variables • Potential customization – CAPE, LI, Total Totals, Helicity, SWEAT • June, July, August most likely months for severe weather • Westchester, Queens, & New York Counties had highest number of severe weather reports • Low pressure, cold fronts, & jet stream location are contributing factors to severe weather

  22. Future Work

  23. Future Work • Match event timing to closest sounding • Narrow thunderstorm database further to the “most severe” events • Look for combinations or patterns between variables • Expand thunderstorm database • Find additional sounding information

  24. Acknowledgement • Dr. Steven Decker, Associate Professor, Rutgers University • Brandon Hertell, ConEdison

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