WWW Future Considerations

1. WWW Future Considerations

2. March 2002 Predictions • E-commerce growth will continue to expand independent of the tech recovery, but the tech recovery will help to propel even more e-commerce," • consumers and businesses are continuing to increase their purchases online • consumers boosted their online purchases by 12 percent in 2001, and the average corporation bought 9.5 percent of materials on the Web in the fourth quarter of 2001, up from 7.1 percent in the third quarter. • Forrester analyst Bruce Temkin

3. 2002 • Tech sector, propelled by a robust U.S. economic recovery, will turn around faster than previous projections indicated. In addition, e-commerce is expected to remain strong.

4. Future Considerations • Push vs. Pull • WWW Business Model • Cookie Files • Device • Access • A Truly Global Marketplace • Changing Nature of Competition

5. Push vs Pull • Push Model: Traditional media • mutually beneficial • media - revenue • marketers - access to customers through media • consumers - information and entertainment • Demand Pull: WWW • unique problem- consumer control • Corporate Marketers & Content Providers • CP rely on CM for advertisements • Same as traditional media model

6. WWW Push Model • Exposure= quality of content & WWW marketing • greater exposure = greater $ from marketers • 2 methods to market content • current WWW marketing techniques • “pushing content” to the browser • Push ensures that the channel’s audience is exposed to their content • Email- for developed long term relationships • Alternative Sponsorship Options

7. Push Players • Very competitive in the short term • Include a shakeout, steady state > long term • Each player = a number of channels • Content providers will have to decide who to partner with • The cost of competing • Content Providers may evolve into Channel Providers

8. Long Term Scenario • A mix of push and pull • Browsers • Corporate Intranets • Employees Desktop

9. Access and Devise • Wireless communications • cell phones • pagers • personal platforms • Convergence of traditional products • Web TV • cell • pager • computer (TV?) • smart cars and other appliances • smart power and phone service • New business models will evolve out of this wired environment • on the go, easy to use, affordable

10. WWW Business Model • Effective Business Models are still in development • Subscription model has been hard to implement • Content Providers may partner with Marketers • Content/Channel/Marketers

11. Cookie Files • Vital to the development of WWW as a robust marketing medium • Allow marketers to interpret and store data on individual transactions, on the consumers browser • a small file stored on an individuals computer allowing the site to identify the browser as unique.

12. A Truly Global Marketplace? • Global Content Regulation • Export Encryption Issues • Trademark issues and Domain Names • Intellectual Property Laws • Tax Laws • Technology • Bandwidth

13. Changing Nature of Competition • Global competition • Evolves very quickly • Speed of the Internet= reduce cycle times • Increased quality and quantity of information available to consumer • increased efficiency • = hyper competitive environment

14. Predictions for Year 2000 Provided by The Industry Standard

15. What's the biggest Internet Economy trend of 2000? • The next decade will see, I hope, the arrival of data (such as catalogs, weather, stock prices) that will be processable and combinable by machine. It'll be the rebirth of knowledge representation, where human meets machine. At last it will be a chance for a search engine to figure out the real, logical answer to a question instead of drowning you in wild guesses. - Tim Berners-Lee • The most significant change will take place when people can conveniently use a palmtop computer to search for products online, compare prices and negotiate optional features while walking around normal retail establishments. - Roy T. Fielding • If 1999 was the year of the dot-com, 2000 will be the year of the dot- community. Grassroots sites based on shared values and common interests will steal market share from the big portals. - Andrew Shapiro

16. Dot-coms and e-businesses will be valued on the number of repeat customers, the lifetime value of those customers and the retention rate of those customers. Internet advertising revenues will be based on customer acquisitionbounties and transaction fees, not eyeballs or click-throughs. - Patricia Seybold • True location independence for people. Wireless [connections] will allow for physical products – be they packages or pizzas – to be tied to you and your moving coordinates. - Tara Lemmey • Weaving the right interconnections between the Internet Economy and the plain old economy will become increasingly crucial. Success, in many arenas, will depend upon finding the right mixes of networks and software, brick-and-mortar facilities, and transportation. - William Mitchell • Expect e-mail from the younger and older members of your extended family. - Amy S. Bruckman

17. What will be the top three qualities of successful Internet companies next year? • 1) Enable employees to deal with customers directly, outside of any scripted control; (2) begin opening up at least parts of their intranets to public view and participation; (3) employ personalization technology to better understand and communicate with site visitors. - Christopher Locke • (1) Providing compelling online experiences for their customers; (2) being responsive, and then some, to customer service; (3) getting that it's the marketing (satisfying customer needs at a profit) that makes you a success, not the technology. - Donna Hoffman • 1) Robustness (rather than speed); (2) rigorous affiliation with the customer (rather than e-merchandising); (3) laser focus (rather than department-store breadth). - Philip Evans

18. What Internet technology do you hope will be invented this year? • I want to be able to think text onto a screen. - Eric S. Raymond • A waterproof, lightweight laptop computer with wireless connectivity that I can take to the beach without worrying about getting sand in the keyboard or water in the circuits. - Roy T. Fielding • Streaming taste. - Larry Downes • The proliferation of [artificial intelligence-] based personal agents that will free me from having to "surf" the Web. - Don Tapscott • Better tools for creating, manipulating and deploying metadata. - Hal Varian

19. What won't happen in the Internet Economy in 2000? • The bubble won't burst. - Doc Searls • Appliances will not collapse the PC market. Human beings like having their own computing power, their own disk space, their own territory. - Eric S. Raymond • Though many more people will have access to the Net, the digital divide won't be closed, because it has more to do with socioeconomic and educational inequality than simply whether one has access to the network. - Andrew Shapiro • Profit won't happen for anything business-to-consumer that isn't pure entertainment. - Adam Beberg • Success within the same markets as 1999. Anyone seeking to repeat the successes of this past year should be looking at new markets and unforeseen opportunities. - Roy T. Fielding

20. What will be the next big idea for business-to-business e-commerce? • Accounting-to-accounting relationships. - Doc Searls • Cross-company "undernets." - Christopher Locke • Standardized product descriptions using XML. - Hal Varian • An industry wide data dictionary for MRO (the thousands of minor and irregular purchases that amount to a half-trillion dollars in industrial procurement). - Philip Evans

21. What will the customer of 2000 want? • Respect. Demand is in charge now, not supply. People on the demand side are not "eyeballs" any more. And they'll ignore you if you treat them like body parts. - Doc Searls • An integrated customer experience: Browse and comparison-shop online, buy in the physical store; browse and purchase online, return mistakes at the physical store; browse the physical store, including the Web from the store, then buy it online at the store kiosk and pick it up at the store. All the various combinations of the above. - Donna Hoffman • The four "p"s of marketing are dead. Rather than products, customers value experiences. Rather than place, they will create relationships in the marketspace or the clicks-and-bricks interface – the "marketface." Prices can no longer be defined by sellers with the new price-discovery mechanisms. And promotion is being replaced by the forging of interactive relationships. - Don Tapscott

22. What threats do clicks-and-mortar businesses face that they don't know about yet? • The benchmarking that goes on online is ruthless. You don't have to be the best in your neighborhood; you have to be best in the world. - Seth Godin • They will lose their key people even faster in 2000.-Larry Downes • Because real-world and Internet marketing techniques differ radically, these companies will run into the problem of sending mixed messages: one style of communications via broadcast media, and another via the Web. Increasingly, these markets overlap, and the overlapping elements of both will become either confused or angry. - Christopher Locke • The threats posed by unforeseen "business webs," enabled by changes in the regulatory regimes. For instance, if regulations prohibiting manufacturers from selling cars directly to consumers in the United States are repealed, what's to stop a first-tier supplier from manufacturing an exclusive CarPoint or CarsDirect vehicle that consumers order, configure and buy on the Web, and take to a business partner like Midas (MDS) for service and maintenance? - Don Tapscott

23. What e-commerce business models will take hold in 2000? • Net customers will no longer be satisfied with two-day or next-day delivery. They'll frequent outlets that can deliver anorder placed in the morning that afternoon. - Patricia Seybold • Pay-for-performance revenue models will be huge. - Donna Hoffman • I think that we'll see a growing market for Replay/TiVo/WebTV technologies that will provide an interesting infrastructure for TV-based e-commerce. - Hal Varian

24. How will the rise of "always-on" connectivity change the way the average consumer interacts with the Internet? • Most of the time, we will not even be conscious that we're interacting with the Internet, just as we're not particularly conscious of interacting with the electrical supply grid. - William Mitchell • It will mean that most people will at last be able to use the Net under the same assumptions as the academics who spread it: that a computer is constantly connected and can send a packet whenever it wants. It will mean we will want our computers to be instantly on so that we can push an icon and get the weather within a second. - Tim Berners-Lee • It lowers the threshold of how valuable a site has to be in order for people to visit it. The always- on model is more forgiving in what a site must offer to get your attention; it just takes a second to go there and see if anything is new. This should produce a more varied Net niche culture. - James Fallows

25. Even with advances in video and audio technology, the Internet is largely a words-on-screen interface. Will that change substantially in 2000? • It won't. Words have compelling advantages over point-and-click; they're a much richer mode of communication. And communication, of course, is what the Internet is about. - Eric S. Raymond • Nothing will replace words, as they map to thoughts so well. I see the future as a wide range of media from pure text (may it live forever) to the wildest 3D and live video media. - Tim Berners-Lee • Words and images on screen are the most efficient way to transfer information. Entertainment will continue to occur in appliances. The computer may become part of the TV, but the TV will not become part of the computer. – Adam Beberg

26. What future privacy threats should people start to think about now? • Location-based profiling: cars, cell phones and other wireless devices that allow their location-specific information to be combined with other personal data. And biometrics: The real question in 2000 is who owns your identity and your wake. - Tara Lemmey • People should think about how increasingly ubiquitous digital certificates, depending on their design and use, can cause us to reveal more information than we intend. - Andrew Shapiro

27. Employment Resources Online

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