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By John Metz Warning Coordination Meteorologist WFO Corpus Christi

By John Metz Warning Coordination Meteorologist WFO Corpus Christi. NDFD in a nutshell. …to digital data streams. from teletype text…. Why NDFD?. NWS forecasts must keep pace with the digital age. There is still demand for NWS forecasts in text format.

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By John Metz Warning Coordination Meteorologist WFO Corpus Christi

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  1. By John Metz Warning Coordination Meteorologist WFO Corpus Christi

  2. NDFD in a nutshell …to digital data streams from teletype text…

  3. Why NDFD? • NWS forecasts must keep pace with the digital age. There is still demand for NWS forecasts in text format. • NWS has implemented the Interactive Forecast Preparation System (IFPS) which allows forecasters to create the forecast entirely in digital format. • The digital database is made available to the public through the NDFD website. • Traditional text forecasts now fall out of the digital database.

  4. IFPS Grid Editor

  5. NDFD Definition • Contains a seamless mosaic of NWS digital forecasts • Is available to all users and partners – public and private • Allows users and partners to create wide range of text, graphic, and image products

  6. Current NDFD experimental elements • Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature • Probability of Precipitation (12 hour) • Significant weather • Sky cover • Temperature • Dewpoint temperature • Wind direction and speed • Precipitation amount (QPF) • Snow amount • Wave height Elements shaded in Yellow = Official

  7. NDFD Resolution • Spatial resolution: • - 5 km grids for now • - 2.5 km grids when AWIPS hardware allows • Temporal resolution: • - 3 hourly for days 1-3 • - 6 hourly for days 4-7 • - as available from CPC beyond day 7 • Update frequency: every hour

  8. Temperatures

  9. Chance of Rain

  10. Precipitation Amount

  11. Weather Type

  12. Cloud Cover

  13. Wind Speed & Direction

  14. NDFD elements under development • Apparent temperature (Heat index + wind chill) • Relative humidity • Floating PoP12 index (?) • Wind gust speed • Max/min relative humidity • Lightning Activity Level • Mixing height • Transport wind direction and speed • Haines index • Visibility • Ice coverage • Swell height and direction

  15. NDFD Benefits Provides weather information to “drive” custom applications developed by private sector • Decision support systems that fit the forecast to the problem • - Weather information along a path • - Text generation in more than one language • - Forecasts for vehicles and hand-held devices with GPS • - Controls for smart appliances (e.g., heating, cooling, irrigation) • - Graphics for mass media

  16. Comparison Traditional Text Forecast New Digital Text Format

  17. NDFD Data Flow NCF NDFD Central Server Grids (Official Forecast) • Forecast grids are encoded in GRIB2 at WFOs and NCEP • Grids are decoded and stored to Informix RDBMS • NDFD mosaics are generated hourly from WFO grids WFO (120+) AWIPS WAN NCEP (6)

  18. NDFD Forecast Mosaics to 168 Hours (7 days) Mon Fri Sat Wed Wed Thu Sun Tue Day 7 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 8 Timeliness of NDFD Data At 1800 UTC every day, drop Day 1 and add new Day 7 Tue Sat Sun Thu Thu Fri Mon Wed Day 7 Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Day 4 Day 5 Day 6 Day 8

  19. NDFD Data Format • Each file contains multiple GRIB2 bulletins for one • weather element • Each GRIB2 bulletin begins with a unique WMO header • Each GRIB2 bulletin contains data for a single weather • element for a single valid time • Temporal resolution is 3 hours for Days 1-3 and 6 hours • for Days 4-7 • NDFD data issuance time (YYYYMMDDHH) is encoded • in each bulletin

  20. NDFD Statistics Tracking Several different types of statistics are tracked on the NDFD (by WFO): • Latest receipt times of WFO forecast grids • Average forecast update frequency : • - daily • - weekly • - monthly

  21. NDFD Statistics Tracking WFO Border Consistency Statistics • Assists forecasters in tracking the coordination their of gridded forecasts • NDFD processes check (on an hourly basis) the consistency of forecasts across WFO boundaries for an average of adjacent gridpoints • Terrain effects are taken into account by including average elevational differences along WFO boundaries • Image as well as tabular output is produced as feedback to forecasters

  22. NDFD Statistics Tracking NDFD Forecast Verification • Another source of feedback • to the forecaster to help • improve forecast quality • Statistics are updated • monthly based on previous • month’s NDFD forecasts • Tracks mean absolute error • and forecast bias

  23. The End John.metz@noaa.gov 361-299-1354 www.weather.gov www.nws.noaa.gov/ndfd/

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